Get ready for several years of killer heat, top weather forecasters warn
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel
Get ready for several years of even more record-breaking heat that pushes Earth to more deadly, fiery and uncomfortable extremes, two of the world's top weather agencies forecast. There's an 80 per cent chance the world will break another annual temperature record in the next five years, and it's even more probable that the world will again exceed the international temperature threshold set 10 years ago, according to a five-year forecast released Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organisation and the UK Meteorological Office."Higher global mean temperatures may sound abstract, but it translates in real life to a higher chance of extreme weather: stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts," said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn't part of the calculations but said they made sense. "So higher global mean temperatures translates to more lives lost."With every tenth of a degree the world warms from human-caused climate change "we will experience higher frequency and more extreme events (particularly heat waves but also droughts, floods, fires and human-reinforced hurricanes/typhoons)," emailed Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. He was not part of the research.And for the first time there's a chance - albeit slight - that before the end of the decade, the world's annual temperature will shoot past the Paris climate accord goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and hit a more alarming 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of heating since the mid-1800s, the two agencies said.There's an 86 per cent chance that one of the next five years will pass 1.5 degrees and a 70 per cent chance that the five years as a whole will average more than that global milestone, they figured.The projections come from more than 200 forecasts using computer simulations run by 10 global centres of scientists.Ten years ago, the same teams figured there was a similar remote chance - about 1 per cent - that one of the upcoming years would exceed that critical 1.5 degree threshold and then it happened last year. This year, a 2-degree Celsius above pre-industrial year enters the equation in a similar manner, something UK Met Office longer term predictions chief Adam Scaife and science scientist Leon Hermanson called "shocking.""It's not something anyone wants to see, but that's what the science is telling us," Hermanson said. Two degrees of warming is the secondary threshold, the one considered less likely to break, set by the 2015 Paris agreement Technically, even though 2024 was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, the Paris climate agreement's threshold is for a 20-year time period, so it has not been exceeded. Factoring in the past 10 years and forecasting the next 10 years, the world is now probably about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter since the mid 1800s, World Meteorological Organisation climate services director Chris Hewitt estimated."With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat. Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape," said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter.Ice in the Arctic - which will continue to warm 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world - will melt and seas will rise faster, Hewitt said.What tends to happen is that global temperatures rise like riding on an escalator, with temporary and natural El Nino weather cycles acting like jumps up or down on that escalator, scientists said. But lately, after each jump from an El Nino, which adds warming to the globe, the planet doesn't go back down much, if at all. Record temperatures immediately become the new normal," said Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
India.com
an hour ago
- India.com
China's BIG plan to conquer the Moon, to build lunar city, settlements by 2035, develops tech to transform moondust into...
Representational Image/AI-generated China Moon Mission: China's rapid technological advancement has dazzled the world over the last decade, and now the Asian giant has reportedly developed a technology that transforms moondust (regolith) into sturdy bricks which would be used in building houses on the moon, as Beijing plans to establish lunar settlements by 2035. What is China's 'moon bricks' technology? According to media reports, Chinese scientists have developed an advanced machine to build bricks from regolith on the surface of the moon. The machine collects moondust and superheats it a special chambers, where the high-temperatures fuse the dust particles together to form solid bricks that can be used to construct research bases and housing facilities on the moon. The technology is a major step towards establishing settlements in space as it nullifies the cost of transport construction material from Earth, as transportation for a single kilo could run into crores. How the technology works? As per experts, the machine makes bricks similar to how regular bricks are made back on Earth, by baking clay in a hot furnace. The machine heats moondust to a temperature of up to 1300 degrees Celsius by amplifying the available sunlight by 3000 times. The superheated furnace melts the dust and shapes it into durable space bricks. The machine was first tested with volcanic ash on Earth, but melting regolith is a challenging task as its composition varies in different spots on the lunar surface due to radiation exposure, temperature fluctuations and micrometeorites striking the moon. Where will the bricks be tested? China's Tianzhou-8 mission ferried a cache of regolith bricks to space where they will undergo rigorous testing for radiation and temperature effects for three years at the Tiangong Space Station. These tests are designed to determine their durability and efficacy for building installations on the moon. In 2020, China's Chang-e-5 mission brought back soil samples from the moon, and soon Chinese engineers designed a machine to create moondust bricks after studying the composition of regolith. The Chang-e-8 mission, which aims to lay the foundation of a Chinese research base on the moon, will carry the technology with it to the lunar surface in 2028. When China plans to build a lunar city? According to reports, China's Chang-E-7 mission will head to the moon in 2026 to search for water on the lunar south pole, while a manned mission is planned for 2030, and a permanent research base along with a lunar colony, is expected to be operational by 2035. Notably, China and Russia have teamed up to build a nuclear power plant on the Moon, which will power the proposed International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). The revolutionary project is expected to be completed by 2036.
Hans India
an hour ago
- Hans India
Madhya Pradesh weather alert: Very heavy rain, thunderstorms likely in several districts
The weather centre of Bhopal of India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a sweeping alert for Madhya Pradesh, warning of very heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and lightning across more several districts over the next 48 hours. A red alert has been declared for Barwani and Burhanpur, where rainfall may exceed 8 inches by Monday morning. Districts including Harda, Khandwa, Khargone, and parts of the Narmadapuram and Indore divisions are under orange and yellow alerts, with heavy to very heavy rain expected. The IMD has also flagged the risk of gusty winds, lightning strikes, and waterlogging in low-lying areas, urging residents to avoid travel and take shelter indoors during storm activity. The weather disturbance is being driven by a complex system of upper air cyclonic circulations and low-pressure areas. A fresh low-pressure zone has formed over the Bay of Bengal near north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts, which is expected to intensify into a depression and move west-northwestward, crossing the coast by August 19. Simultaneously, a remnant cyclonic circulation from Vidarbha is drifting toward Gujarat, while a monsoon trough continues to stretch across central India, enhancing rainfall activity. In the western belt, including Bhopal, Ujjain, Dewas, and Sehore, light to moderate rain with thunderstorms is forecast. Bhopal recorded 8 mm of rainfall on Saturday, with temperatures hovering around 31 degrees Celsius during the day and 24 degrees Celsius at night. Eastern districts such as Jabalpur, Shahdol, Rewa, and Sagar have already received 30 per cent more rainfall than average, while the western divisions are 20 per cent above normal. Overall, the state has received 84 per cent of its seasonal quota, with 25 per cent excess rainfall so far. In districts like Singrauli, Sidhi, Satna, and Mandla, scattered thunderstorms and lightning are expected to continue through the week, with wind speeds reaching up to 50 km/h in some areas. The weather center has advised farmers to avoid working in open fields, unplug electrical appliances, and refrain from sheltering under trees or electric poles during storm conditions. Travelers are urged to plan ahead, as visibility may be severely reduced and roads may become impassable due to flooding. Authorities have recommended avoiding bridges and elevated roads during peak storm hours. With the monsoon trough active and multiple weather systems converging, the next 72 hours are critical for central India. Residents are advised to stay tuned to official advisories and take all necessary precautions to ensure safety.
Time of India
3 hours ago
- Time of India
Showers cool Patna, but IMD warns of rain ahead
Patna: People in Patna got much-needed relief from hot and humid weather on Sunday afternoon, as a spell of rain, accompanied by light wind, brought down the temperature. According to the Indian meteorological department (IMD), while light showers are expected to continue in the state till Aug 20, moderate to heavy rainfall would again start from Aug 21. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now A yellow alert for light rainfall and thunderstorms were issued for several districts on Sunday, including Patna, Gaya, Jehanabad, West and East Champaran, Siwan, Saran, Sitamarhi, Muzaffarpur, Vaishali, Gopalganj, Sheohar, Aurangabad, Nawada, Banka, Begusarai and Darbhanga. For Monday, the IMD has warned of thunderstorms and lightning in 17 districts—West and East Champaran, Gopalganj, Siwan, Saran, Supaul, Araria, Kishanganj, Purnia, Katihar, Madhepura, Saharsa, Khagaria, Bhagalpur, Munger, Jamui and Banka. A similar alert has been issued for the northern districts on Tuesday. However, scattered showers at a few places are likely to occur in the northern districts and isolated rainfall at one or two places in the southern districts for the next two days. According to the weather bulletin issued on Sunday, no major change in the maximum or minimum temperature is expected to occur over the next five days across the state, contrary to the previous bulletin which predicted a rise in the next three to four days. The maximum temperature is expected to range between 32-34 degrees Celsius. On Sunday, the state's highest maximum temperature was recorded at Valmiki Nagar at 36.2 degrees Celsius, followed by 35.7 degrees Celsius in Patna. Light rainfall was recorded in Gaya, Bhagalpur, West Champaran, Muzaffarpur, Purnia, Darbhanga, Dehri, Madhubani, Madhepura, Vaishali, Bikramganj, Arwal and Supaul.
