Circle Stock To $300?

Forbes

a day ago

Representation of cryptocurrency and Circle logo displayed on a screen in the background are seen in ... More this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on June 10, 2022. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Circle Internet Group Inc (NYSE: CRCL), the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, has rapidly emerged as one of the market's most watched stories following its IPO. Currently trading around $115 — a significant increase from its IPO reference price of $31 — the company has attracted substantial institutional support and increasing public interest from investors. With the crypto-fintech sector gaining momentum and regulatory clarity becoming more apparent, many are now asking: could Circle ultimately reach $300 per share?
Circle's current primary revenue source is derived from the yield produced by the reserves supporting USDC, which now has a circulating supply close to $60 billion. These reserves, mainly invested in short-term U.S. Treasuries, generate dependable, scalable interest income — providing a foundational revenue stream. In 2024, Circle reported over $1.5 billion in revenue, primarily from interest earned on these reserves. If USDC's circulation grows to $150–200 billion over the next three to five years — a feasible scenario given the surge in global demand for stablecoins — Circle's reserve income alone could reach $4–5 billion annually.
In addition to passive income, Circle's product roadmap features enterprise-grade APIs for programmable payments, digital identity layers, FX rails, and on-chain treasury services. This infrastructure-first strategy positions Circle similarly to a 'Stripe for digital dollars.' With substantial traction in these services, Circle could generate $2–3 billion in additional revenue from software-like recurring sources. Combining this with reserve yield, total revenue could grow to $6.5–8 billion annually within five years.
Circle's capital-light operational model allows it to scale profitably. Despite high partner distribution expenses — such as payments to Coinbase — its underlying margin profile remains robust. Over time, net margins in the range of 25–30% are likely as the business diversifies and gains more control over customer relationships. If net income reaches $1.8–2.4 billion, and Circle holds 300–350 million shares outstanding post-IPO, the company could achieve earnings per share (EPS) in the $6.00–8.00 range.
At a price of $300 per share, Circle would have a market capitalization in the range of $45–50 billion. This would correspond to a price-to-earnings multiple of 40–50x, which is in line with the valuation of rapidly growing, high-margin fintech platforms — especially those developing enterprise infrastructure (e.g., Stripe, Adyen, or legacy Visa during its earlier growth phase). In this situation, Circle would be valued not just for growth, but for being a unique crypto-native company with strong compliance, significant partnerships (e.g., BlackRock, Visa), and a pivotal role in the tokenization of real-world assets.
A share price of $300 for Circle is not merely a bullish aspiration — it represents a goal that illustrates the company's desire to become the digital financial infrastructure layer of the internet. To achieve this, Circle must increase the circulation of USDC, enhance its platform services, and demonstrate its ability to generate stable earnings at scale — all while maintaining regulatory credibility. If this vision becomes a reality, Circle won't just be a stablecoin company — it will be a fundamental component of the financial system of the future. In such a landscape, a price of $300 may not signify overvaluation, but rather a fair valuation.
Investing in a single stock like CRCL carries risks. Conversely, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which contains 30 stocks, has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 over the past four years. What's the reason for this? Overall, HQ Portfolio stocks have provided higher returns with lower risk compared to the benchmark index, resulting in a less volatile experience, as shown by HQ Portfolio performance metrics.