Sabah polls: GRS faces tough fight to stay in power, say analysts

The Star

09-07-2025

KOTA KINABALU: The ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) is facing an uphill battle to hold on to power in the upcoming state election, according to political analysts.
The eight-party GRS led by Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor is expected to struggle to meet voter expectations that include bread and butter issues, jobs, infrastructure needs and resolution on Sabah rights.
Observers do not rule out another hung result in the polls, with winning political parties cobbling together a new coalition government that could be led by GRS if it wins sufficient seats to be at the negotiating table.
"At this point, it seems no party will be able to gain more than 20 of the 73 state seats. We may have Madani 2.0 in Sabah," Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) lecturer Dr Romzi Ationg said.
Romzi foresees the next Sabah government being formed by parties collaborating after contesting against each other, a situation similar to the formation of the Madani government of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim after the 2022 general election.
"GRS seems all ready for the state election, but I am unsure about its chances to win.
"Voters throughout Sabah are talking about the videos (bribery allegations), this suggests that GRS is in dire need to explain themselves," Romzi said, adding that local sentiments and federal-state relations, among others, are on the minds of voters.
Political analyst Tony Paridi Bagang from UiTM Sabah campus said that a hung state assembly might emerge after the election only if there was no electoral pact among the coalition and parties, ending in a free-for-all contest among them.
"Voters remain watchful as they anticipate the formation of political alliances ahead of the upcoming election, with no clear pact having yet emerged.
"(While) the sentiment favouring a locally-led government continues to gain traction, it is increasingly tempered by public dissatisfaction over the slow pace in resolving infrastructure problems and perceptual issues stemming from recent political controversies, particularly allegations of corruption," he said.
At the just-concluded state assembly meeting on Tuesday (July 8), he said that GRS had held up its report card, showcasing its achievements under the Sabah Maju Jaya (SMJ) development plan.
"These accomplishments will likely serve as a key factor in persuading the public to give them a fresh mandate in the upcoming election," Bagang added.
Hajiji's Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (Gagasan Rakyat) is the anchor party of GRS, while two non-Muslim native based parties - Sabah STAR led by Datuk Seri Dr Jeffrey Kitingan and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), under acting president Datuk Seri Dr Joachim Gunsalam - are major partners.
GRS is keen to continue working as a coalition partner with Sabah Pakatan Harapan, which came to the rescue of Hajiji's state government after Sabah Barisan Nasional, led by Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin, pulled out its support for GRS in January 2023.
Both Sabah Barisan and Sabah Pakatan, who are major partners in the Federal Government, are working on a seat-sharing formula.
Observers expect Sabah Barisan to field candidates in GRS contested seats, while both parties will not contest in seats allocated for Sabah Pakatan.
Remaining in opposition at the state level, though part of the Madani government, are Parti Warisan led by former chief minister Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal and Parti KDM under acting president Prescilla Peter, the daughter of jailed party president Datuk Peter Anthony.
Both parties with substantial political influence have maintained that they will go solo in the election.
Other national parties like Perikatan Nasional's Bersatu and PAS are also expected to enter the fray with several other local parties that have resurfaced.