UK Ethanol Industry's Imminent Demise May Hit Meat, Beer and More
The Vivergo Fuels and Ensus plants in the north of England face imminent closure after a trade deal with Washington removed tariffs on imports of American ethanol.
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Los Angeles Times
28 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
Employers slash hiring as Trump advances a punishing trade agenda
Hiring is slowing sharply as President Donald Trump's erratic and radical trade policies paralyze businesses and raise doubts about the outlook for the world's largest economy. The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S. employers added just 73,000 jobs last month, well short of the 115,000 forecasters had expected. Worse, revisions shaved a stunning 258,000 jobs off May and June payrolls. And the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% as Americans dropped out of the labor force and the ranks of the unemployed rose by 221,000. 'A notable deterioration in U.S. labor market conditions appears to be underway,'' said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets. 'We have been forecasting this since the tariff and trade war erupted this spring and more restrictive immigration restrictions were put in place. Overall, this report highlights the risk of a harder landing for the labor market.'' Economists have been warning that the rift with every U.S. trading partner will begin to appear this summer and the Friday jobs report appeared to sound the bell. 'We're finally in the eye of the hurricane,' said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor. 'After months of warning signs, the July jobs report confirms that the slowdown isn't just approaching—it's here.' U.S. markets recoiled and the jobs report and the Dow tumbled more than 600 points at the opening bell Friday. The revelations in the new data raise questions about the health of the job market and the economy as President Donald Trump pushes forward with an unorthodox overhaul of American trade policy. Trump has discarded decades of U.S. policy that had favored fewer barriers and ever-freer trade. Instead, Trump is imposing hefty import taxes — tariffs — on products from almost every country on earth. Trump believes the levies will bring manufacturing back to America and raise money to pay for the massive tax cuts he signed into law July 4. Mainstream economists say the cost of the tariffs will be passed along to Americans, both businesses and households. That has already begun to happen. Walmart, Procter & Gamble, Ford, Best Buy, Adidas, Nike, Mattel, Shein, Temu, Stanley Black & Decker, have all announced, or said that they would hike prices, due to U.S. tariffs. Trump has also sowed uncertainty in the erratic way he's rolled the tariffs out — announcing, then suspending them, then coming up with new ones. Overnight, Trump signed an executive order that set new tariffs on a wide swath of U.S. trading partners to that go into effect on Aug. 7., and that arrived after a flurry of unexpected tariff-related actions this week. 'There was a clear, significant, immediate, tariff effect on the labor market and employment growth essentially stalled, as we were dealing with so much uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and for tariffs,' said Blerina Uruci, chief U.S. economist for the brokerage T. Rowe Price. Still, Uruci said the data suggests we could be past the worst, as hiring actually did pick up a bit in July from May and June's revised and depressed levels. 'I'm not overly pessimistic on the U.S. economy based on this morning's data,' she said, though she does think that hiring will remain muted in the coming months as the number of available workers remains limited due to reduced immigration and an aging population. Trump has sold the tariffs hikes as a way to boost American manufacturing, but factories cut 11,000 jobs last month after shedding 15,000 in June and 11,000 in May. The federal government, where employment has been targeted by the Trump administration, lost 12,000 jobs. Jobs in administration and support fell by nearly 20,000. Healthcare companies added 55,400 jobs last month – accounting for 76% of the jobs added in July and offering another sign that recent job gains have been narrowly concentrated. The department originally reported that state and local governments had added 64,000 jobs in education in June. After the revisions released Friday, that number fell to below 10,000. After the big revisions for May and June, Labor Department data show that the U.S. economy has generated an average of just 85,000 jobs a month this year, barely half last year's average of 168,000 and well below an average 400,000 from 2021-2023 as the economy rebounded from COVID-19 lockups. The weak jobs data makes it more likely that Trump will get one thing that he most fervently desires: A cut in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which often -- though not always -- can lead to lower rates for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly pointed to a healthy job market as a reason that they could take time to evaluate how Trump's tariffs were affecting inflation and the broader economy. Now that assessment has been undercut and will put more pressure on the Fed to reduce borrowing costs. Wall Street investors sharply raised their expectations for a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in September after the report was released. On Wednesday, the Fed left its key rate unchanged for the fifth straight meeting and Powell signaled little urgency to reduce rates anytime soon. He said the 'labor market is solid' with 'historically low unemployment.' But he also acknowledged there is a 'downside risk' to employment stemming from the slow pace of hiring that was evident even before Friday's weaker numbers. The current situation is a sharp reversal from the hiring boom of just three years ago when desperate employers were handing out signing bonuses and introducing perks such as Fridays off, fertility benefits and even pet insurance to recruit and keep workers. The rate of people quitting their jobs — a sign they're confident they can land something better — has fallen from the record heights of 2021 and 2022 and is now below where it stood before the pandemic. Drees Homes, a homebuilder based outside Cincinnati in Fort Mitchell, Kentucky, has hired about 50 people over the past year, bringing its workforce to around 950. Pamela Rader, Drees' vice president for human resources, it's 'gotten a little bit easier'' to find workers. A couple of years ago, Rader said jobseekers were focused on getting more pay. Now, she said, they emphasize a better work-life balance, stable employment and prospects for advancement. Wiseman and Rugaber write for the Associated Press.
Axios
28 minutes ago
- Axios
Trump's latest tariffs will cost U.S. households $2,400 this year, analysis says
The new tariff rates President Trump announced late Thursday are the highest in nearly a century and will cost the average family about $2,400 this year, the Yale Budget Lab said. Why it matters: Combined with the surprisingly weak jobs report Friday morning, it's the latest sign that American households face a much more difficult economy in the months to come. Catch up quick: On Thursday, Trump revised the sweeping global tariffs he imposed in April, lowering rates for many countries while raising them for a few. They will mostly take effect starting Aug. 7, though some change as soon as Friday. By the numbers: After blending the various rates assigned to different countries, the average tariff now stands at 18.3%, the highest since 1934, the Yale group said. Substitution, or families switching to lower-cost goods, may shave some costs, and could reduce the final burden to as little as $2,000, they added. Between the lines: There are already signs that inflation is creeping higher as tariffs pile up, even before the latest levies go into effect.
San Francisco Chronicle
28 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Switzerland, the land of luxury brands, could see prices skyrocket from Trump's 39% tariffs
Prices for the eponymous Swiss watches, Swiss chocolate and Swiss cheese could skyrocket in a week as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war. Switzerland, home to some the world's most recognizable luxury brands, now faces an upcoming 39% tariff from the U.S. Industry groups on Friday warned that both Swiss companies and American consumers could pay the price. Trump signed an executive order Thursday placing tariffs on many U.S. trade partners — the next step in his trade agenda that will test the global economy and alliances — that's set to take effect next Thursday. The order applies to 66 countries, the European Union, Taiwan and the Falkland Islands. In Switzerland, officials failed to reach a final agreement with the U.S. after Trump initially threatened a 31% tariff in April. Swiss companies will now have one of the steepest export duties — only Laos, Myanmar and Syria had higher figures, at 40-41%. The 27-member EU bloc and Britain, meanwhile, negotiated 15% and 10% tariffs, respectively. Figure came as a surprise The Swiss government spent Friday — the country's National Day — reeling from the news. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter said that the 39% figure was a surprise, because negotiators had hashed out a deal last month with the Trump administration that apparently wasn't approved by the American leader himself. 'We will now analyze the situation and try to find a solution," Keller-Sutter told reporters. 'I can't say what the outcome will be, but it will certainly damage the economy.' The U.S. goods trade deficit with Switzerland was $38.5 billion last year, a 56.9% increase over 2023, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. Keller-Sutter said that she believes Trump ultimately chose the 39% tariff, because the figure rounded up from the $38.5 billion goods trade deficit. 'It was clear that the president was focused on the trade deficit and only this issue,' she said. Time is ticking for watch companies For Swiss watch companies, whose products already come with price tags in the tens of thousands — if not the hundreds of thousands — of euros, a timepiece for an arm could cost a leg, too, come next week. The 39% figure was especially galling to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, because Switzerland in 2024 got rid of import tariffs on all industrial goods. 'As Switzerland has eliminated all custom duties on imported industrial products, there is no problem with reciprocity between Switzerland and the U.S.,' the federation said in a statement. 'The tariffs constitute a severe problem for our bilateral relations.' Swiss watch exports were already facing a prolonged slowdown, with significant declines in the United States, Japan and Hong Kong, according to the federation's June figures, the most recent available. Sour taste for Swiss chocolatiers Multinational chocolatiers Nestlé and Lindt & Sprüngli said they have production lines in the U.S. for American customers. But small- and medium-sized Swiss companies are predicted to suffer under the tariffs. Roger Wehrli, chief executive of the Association of Swiss Chocolate Manufacturers. also known as Chocosuisse, said Switzerland exports 7% of its chocolate production to the U.S. It's not just the 39% tariff that's the issue. Once the manufacturers factor in the exchange rate between U.S. dollars and Swiss francs ($1 to 1.23 francs on Friday), Wehrli said, it's close to a 50% increase in costs for the Swiss companies. And that's a big number to pass on to American consumers, if the already-slim margins aren't further reduced. 'I expect that our industry will lose customers in the United States, and that sales volumes will decrease heavily,' he told The Associated Press. Wehrli said that he wants Swiss chocolatiers to sell to other markets around the globe to make up the difference. Still, he hopes American customers remember that Swiss quality beats cheaper quantity. 'I think even if prices for Swiss chocolate increase due to the very high tariffs, I think it's worth (it) to buy Swiss chocolate," he said. 'It's worth (it) to really eat it consciously and to really enjoy it instead of eating a lot.' Tough pill for Swiss pharmaceuticals Swiss pharmaceuticals powerhouse Roche says that it's working to ensure its patients and customers worldwide have access to their medications and diagnostics amid the Trump tariff war. 'While we believe pharmaceuticals and diagnostics should be exempt from tariffs to protect patient access, supply chains and ultimately future innovation, we are prepared for potential tariffs being implemented and confident in managing any impacts,' the statement said. The company in April announced that it plans to invest $50 billion in the United States over the next five years, creating 12,000 jobs. The company already employs more than 25,000 people in the U.S. Meanwhile, Novartis, another major Swiss pharmaceutical firm, said in a statement that it was reviewing Trump's executive order. 'We remain committed to finding ways to improve access and affordability for patients,' it said.
