Antimicrobial resistant superbugs could kill millions, cost $2 trillion yearly by 2050: Report
Antimicrobial-resistant superbugs could lead to substantial global mortality and economic losses of approximately $2tn annually by 2050, according to a study, quoted by the Guardian.
Analysis from a UK government-sponsored research reveals that rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could result in yearly global GDP losses of $1.7 trillion over the next 25 years without decisive intervention.
The Center for Global Development's research indicates severe economic impact on the US, UK and EU economies. Recent reductions in aid funding appear counterproductive, particularly as the UK government has eliminated Fleming fund support for AMR prevention in developing nations.
Similarly, the US has confirmed $9 billion in foreign aid reductions, with European nations following suit.
Anthony McDonnell, who led the research at the Center for Global Development, explained that initial projections were based on historical resistance trends. He noted that significant aid reductions by the US (80%), UK (from 0.5% to 0.3% of GNI), France, and Germany could accelerate resistance rates to worst-case scenarios.
He emphasised that no country, regardless of their AMR control success, should be complacent. Without protecting AMR programmes from funding cuts, global resistance rates could escalate to match severely affected nations, resulting in increased mortality worldwide and substantial economic consequences.
The study, covering 122 countries, projects annual GDP losses by 2050 could reach $722 billion in China, $295.7 billion in the US, $187 billion in the EU, $65.7 billion in Japan, and $58.6 billion in the UK under pessimistic scenarios.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecasts a 60% increase in AMR-related deaths by 2050, with annual mortality reaching 1.34 million in the US and 184,000 in the UK. Drug-resistant infections are expected to rise significantly.
Antibiotic-resistant infections double treatment costs due to increased hospitalisations, extended stays, expensive alternative treatments, and complex care requirements.
The research estimates global AMR treatment costs could rise by $176bn annually, with UK costs increasing from $900m to $3.7bn and US costs from $15.5bn to $57bn.
The study indicates workforce reductions of 0.8% in the UK, 0.6% in the EU, and 0.4% in the US due to resistant infections.
However, increased investment in addressing superbugs could boost annual economic growth by $156.2bn in the US and $12bn in the UK by 2050.
Dr Mohsen Naghavi from IHME warned that without immediate action, current medicines might become ineffective, potentially making simple infections lethal, according to The Guardian.
This requires governmental policy changes, new drug development, and public education about antibiotics' ineffectiveness against viruses.
A UK government representative highlighted their 10-year health strategy addressing AMR, citing progress in reducing antibiotic use in meat production and developing new treatment incentives whilst maintaining international cooperation.
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