Newcastle v Chelsea: crucial questions in too-close-to-call race for Champions League
How they are shaping up for this key clash?
Newcastle: If recent form seems encouraging – Newcastle are seeking an eighth victory in 10 league games – they will miss the combative presence of the injured Joelinton on the left of Eddie Howe's midfield three. Joe Willock has not convinced entirely in that role since the Brazilian damaged a knee and much the same could be said of Alexander Isak. On his day the Sweden striker is unplayable but since Newcastle's Carabao Cup triumph Isak has often been a shadow of his best self. Is it the minor groin injury he is carrying, or even a desire to move on to pastures new this summer? Given the importance of Kieran Trippier and Fabian Schär, Howe will be keeping everything crossed that those two key defenders pass late fitness tests. LT
Related: Roméo Lavia is the ideal cog in Enzo Maresca's machine – when he is fit
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Chelsea: It feels like the atmosphere around the club completely changed when late goals from Tyrique George and Pedro Neto enabled them to fight back from 1-0 down to beat Fulham last month. A first away win since December eased the pressure on Enzo Maresca, generating momentum at a vital point. Strong at home, Chelsea followed up the heist at Fulham with a gritty victory over Everton at Stamford Bridge, then took advantage of a drop in Liverpool's standards by beating the newly crowned champions last week. It has been an impressive revival after a worrying few months. Chelsea look hungry. Nicolas Jackson has rediscovered his scoring touch and the return of Roméo Lavia in midfield has made a huge difference. Chelsea are a different team when Lavia is fit. There is still much to prove, though. Can this young side hold their nerve against direct competitors for a top-five spot? Chelsea have lost their past three games at St James' Park. JS
What would missing out on the Champions League mean?
Newcastle: Although Newcastle are not in peril of breaching profitability and sustainability regulations (PSR) rules, a place in one of Europe's lesser competitions would probably restrict their maximum summer spending to about £75m before any sales. Champions League involvement should virtually double that budget. Several of the club's commercial deals, the Adidas kit sponsorship included, rise appreciably in value if a top-five finish is secured. Europa or Conference League involvement would also increase the probability of Howe losing at least one leading player and quite possibly unsettle his star striker, Isak. Conversely, rubbing shoulders with Europe's elite would enable Newcastle to keep not only Isak but Bruno Guimarães too. It would also make it easier to acquire a number of high-profile targets, including Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo, Crystal Palace's Marc Guéhi, Burnley's James Trafford, Ipswich's Liam Delap and RB Leipzig's Benjamin Sesko. Finishing sixth or seventh would mean Howe had failed to trigger a contractual £3m Champions League bonus clause that would boost his salary to around £9m per year. LT
Chelsea: The club have not qualified since being bought by Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital in 2022. Spending two seasons in the wilderness has not done wonders for their finances. Complying with the Premier League's PSR has required some clever accountancy, so it would help Chelsea if they returned to a competition they won in 2012 and 2021. Maresca has admitted that failing to qualify would have an impact on his transfer budget, although it should not be forgotten that Chelsea are in line for a handsome payout from their participation in this summer's expanded Club World Cup. They believe they are going in the right direction. Maresca is an inexperienced coach and has struggled at times during his first season in charge but the club want to persist with the Italian. Supporters may not be as forgiving as the board if Chelsea miss out. JS
Who needs to shine if they are to win?
Newcastle: Joelinton's absence dictates that Willock has big midfield boots to fill. Isak could do with winning his attacking beauty contest with Chelsea's Cole Palmer. Sandro Tonali needs to emphasise why he ranks among Europe's finest in the No 6 position and the inconsistent Guimarães must rediscover his A game. Although Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes have impressed of late, this might be the moment for Anthony Gordon to start his first game since March. Howe rarely deviates from 4-3-3 but is this the time to surprise Chelsea with a tactical revamp? With the influential defender Sven Botman fully fit again, a switch to a back three or 4-2-3-1 are options. Should Maresca persist with his risky habit of playing out from the back, Howe's hard, high, 4-3-3 pressing machine could steamroller Chelsea. With a tricky trip to Arsenal next Sunday, Newcastle will not settle for a draw. LT
Chelsea: Nothing fancy here – you can't look past Palmer. The 23-year-old makes Chelsea tick and his mojo was back against Liverpool. A late penalty ended an 18-match goal drought and there was encouragement from a performance full of Palmer's trademark creative genius. Not that Chelsea are a one-man team. Moisés Caicedo was named the club's player of the year last week. The midfielder has continued to excel since being deployed as an auxiliary right-back. The ploy has allowed Maresca to put Lavia next to Enzo Fernández, who has been in fine goalscoring form. Jackson's return from a hamstring injury has also sharpened the attack. As for the defence, Levi Colwill and Trevoh Chalobah will have to be at their best against Isak. JS
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