MLB's biggest surprises thus far, plus two Game 7s clinched
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Good morning! Don't lose in Game 6 today.
When a playoff series reaches Game 6, the matchup becomes primal. The team down 3-2 is likely playing at home, back against the proverbial wall, fighting for another day. Those with a chance to clinch want to avoid the sometimes suffocating pressure of a Game 7 at home.
We had six Game 6s (say that fast) last night across the NBA and NHL. Let's start with the clinchers:
Real survival, though, comes via our most hallowed tradition: Game 7. Glory awaits:
Both Game 7s are set for tomorrow, both involving Denver sports teams. Let's move on.
We are officially a month into the MLB season, which means we can start taking these relatively small sample sizes seriously. There are things we expected to happen: The Dodgers are a juggernaut. The Rockies are abysmal.
But every baseball season brings surprises, and I've identified two — one good, one bad — we need to discuss. I successfully annoyed Windup author Levi Weaver into helping me:
Let's start with a Good Team, the Giants at 19-13 so far. What's our read?
💬 I'm not sure I had any strong feelings about what the Giants would be this year, but it certainly wasn't this. In a division that features a baseball Death Star and two other legit playoff contenders, they were in first place as recently as a few days ago.
Despite a recent skid, this year is still a massive success. Also don't forget there is a whole new regime in San Francisco, led by franchise legend Buster Posey. Fun.
Now onto the bad, which is particularly distressing: Baltimore. What gives?
💬 Because it's the Orioles and not the big-name Yankees or Dodgers, it's easy to lose sight of the number of injuries they've had (a lot). Still, this season feels a lot like lighting a firecracker fuse, standing back, and… and… and… ah dang it this one's a dud.
In the last two years, the Orioles have produced at their highest level in decades, with nary a playoff win to show for it. Now they're back in the basement, looking up at traditional AL East powers like New York and Boston. Bleh.
Thank you to Levi, who has done wonderful work in The Windup already this year. Let's keep moving:
De Bruyne to Chicago?
Manchester City legend Kevin De Bruyne is favored to sign with the Chicago Fire this summer, The Athletic's Paul Tenorio reports, after the Belgian international departs City, where he's played for the last 11 seasons. De Bruyne has said, however, that he's open to remaining in Europe. Expect competition to be rife. More details here.
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Ruggs III wants a second shot
In a podcast interview, Packers running back Josh Jacobs said his former teammate Henry Ruggs III is training in prison and remains hopeful for a second shot at the NFL. Ruggs is serving time for his role in a drunk driving accident that killed a woman and their dog, and is up for parole next year. Jacobs said he's even talking to teams on Ruggs' behalf. Read his full comments here.
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📺 NHL: Jets at Blues
8 p.m. ET on TNT/Max
Our schedule is clearing out as teams are eliminating, paving a path for us to watch only good games. Here's a lovely Game 6 in which the home team faces elimination. Playoff hockey nerves at 10 throughout this matchup.
📺 NBA: Rockets at Warriors
9 p.m. ET on ESPN
Ditto here, where Golden State can close out Houston on its home floor. Is this moment too big for the young, feisty Rockets? Or is this a defining moment as the team skies upward? Legacy stuff at stake here.
Get tickets to games like these here.
Yes, the Kentucky Derby favorite is named 'Journalism.' No, the media did not rig this. The real story is better, in which the horse's trainer is focusing on the race after having his life upended by the Los Angeles fires.
A big report from our MLB crew: The strike zone is shrinking, players say, due to a quirk in the latest umpire CBA. Read it here.
Wait, is Texas really spending $40 million on its 2025 football roster? Sam Khan Jr. investigated.
Loved this so much: As a kid, Pete Crow-Armstrong never wanted to root for his dad's favorite team. Now, he's starring for them.
Lakers coach JJ Redick said his team needs to get 'into championship shape' this offseason. Shots fired.
It's official, the Panthers are officially Florida's hockey powerhouse.
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Is this 2001? Do I need to break out my binder of cards? Yes, there is a boom of Pokémon cards right now, and it's tangentially helping the sports-card market.
Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: The latest update on the drama between Bill Belichick, his girlfriend and CBS.
Most-read on the website yesterday: Mike Sando's report on what executives really thought of the Shedeur Sanders slide, plus other NFL Draft takes.
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New York Times
an hour ago
- New York Times
THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Add Ben Brown, stream Agustín Ramírez
Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. Advertisement THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This week's iteration suggests adding Ben Brown and streaming Agustín Ramírez. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer. For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league. For example, Colton Cowser has thus far performed at a -$17.10 value, but THE BAT X expects him to have a rest-of-season value of $10.60. Cowser has only had 37 at-bats this season so far, so his Statcast numbers aren't validated yet, but they're trending toward red. While his .216 batting average and .275 OBP don't stand out, his xBA is .243 and his xwOBA is .337 (not spectacular but better), and he's hit three home runs so far. Last year, he finished with a .242 BA, a .321 OBP, 24 home runs and nine stolen bases in 499 at-bats. At age 25, he could improve this year, but it's too early to tell by how much. On this list, J.T. Realmuto, Luis Robert Jr. and Brenton Doyle have the highest predicted rest-of-season values but are relatively highly rostered. On the pitching side, Ben Brown (who has been on this list frequently) and Reese Olson (IL15) have the best projections for the remainder of the season, despite playing at -$18.50 and $2.70 levels, respectively. Brown is still available in many leagues, while Olson (even on the injured list) is more highly rostered. To date, Brown is 3-4 with a 5.37 ERA (4.23 xERA) in 63.2 innings pitched; however, his fastball velocity is in the 74th percentile, and his strikeout percentage is 27.7 (80th percentile). Additionally, he's in the 67th percentile or better in chase percentage, whiff percentage, walk rate and extension. He could certainly improve going forward. Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. THE BAT X has suggested fading or trading Steven Kwan for weeks. In a previous iteration, Carty said of THE BAT X projection on Kwan, 'It just doesn't buy his power at all. He doesn't hit the ball hard; he doesn't hit the ball in the air much…. He has one of those extreme outlier profiles, though, where he has insane bat control, which is tougher to quantify, and maybe that just carries him beyond the projection. But all the Statcast metrics going into the projection just say he's got no power.' Advertisement Since then, Kwan's year-to-date value has dropped by over a dollar, but his ROS value has risen slightly. If you haven't traded him yet, it could be time. For players like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cal Raleigh and Pete Alonso, you're looking for high-level players as returns. While these three have been playing great baseball, THE BAT X expects some regression. So, you could attempt to ship them for players who are also playing at a high level today and have a ROS value that matches PCA's, Raleigh's, and Alonso's YTD values. None of these players are drop candidates though. Alex Bregman, who has the only negative valuation for the remainder of the season, is highly rostered and on the IL but is nearing a return. Keep an eye on how he performs. His xBA, xSLG and xwOBA to date are all lower than his actual stats. According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Kevin Gausman has a low YTD value and an even lower ROS value, so THE BAT X suggests ridding yourself of him now before it gets worse, maybe for someone on the trade targets list below. Through 76.2 IP, Gausman is 5-4 with a 3.87 ERA, which is serviceable. He relies heavily on his four-seamer (662) and split-finger (460), while sometimes turning to his slider (101). With a fastball velocity in the 52nd percentile, that strategy may not continue to work. Outside of Gausman, Kodai Senga and Merrill Kelly have performed relatively well but could be great trade bait, as THE BAT X expects regression. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above, and see if there are deals to be made. For example, maybe you think of shipping Kwan for Jazz Chisholm Jr., who just came off the IL and has performed below expectations but is on the hard-hitting Yankees with plenty of chances to score and bring batters in. While Chisholm's YTD value is far below Kwan's, his ROS value is superior. This isn't to say, 'Go make this trade today,' but instead to illustrate how to use the two lists in coordination. Advertisement Gunnar Henderson, whose YTD value increased by $2 over the last week, is another great player to target with a ROS valuation of $29.70. He's now hitting .265 with eight home runs and seven stolen bases. He also had a 54.7 hard-hit percentage, which is in the 96th percentile. Given his K% (26.4) and BB% (7.7), he needs to find more discipline at the plate, but if he does, he could fare much better going forward. As for pitchers, last week we discussed George Kirby, who tops this list again. Since then, his ERA has dropped from 11.42 to 6.53, and his xERA is 4.23. He has one win under his belt now and has pitched in only 20.2 innings. The rust continues to come off, and his fastball velocity (96.2 mph), K% (28.4) and BB% (4.5) are all above the 80th percentile in the league. He's still not performing as expected, so managers may be willing to let him go for a lesser return, and a ROS value of $25.10 from THE BAT X is promising. With negative YTD values, Cole Ragans, Spencer Strider and Dylan Cease may have managers willing to deal. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. On Tuesday, many of the San Francisco Giants could have a good game, including Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee, as they go against the Colorado Rockies. Marlins Catcher and first baseman Agustín Ramírez is available on many waiver wires and could have a big game Monday evening against Pittsburgh. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have outperformed their expectations in the past 30 days, as measured by wOBA and xwOBA. Aaron Judge, with his 'underperforming' yet still incredible .435 xwOBA, is obviously fine. While Hyeseong Kim appears on this list as an overperformer, he is a rookie with only 58 at-bats, and his Statcast information can't be validated yet, outside of his incredible 87th percentile sprint speed, which has enabled him to nab six stolen. He's on a loaded Dodgers' team, but is barely rostered and hitting .414 with a 1.029 OPS and two home runs. The rookie isn't playing every day yet, but he has made a solid case for increased usage. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. We spoke about Ben Rice last week, but he's still around 46% rostered (Yahoo), and his Statcast metrics are all red, except for his Whiff, K and BB rates. If he can improve in those categories, his breakout could be bigger than it is right now. Luis Rengifo, who has had bad luck over the past 30 days, according to his xwOBA, is Rice's foil. His metrics, across the board, look pretty terrible, but his Whiff and K rates are 70th-percentile or above. He's still in the lineup with a .206 average and only one home run, and while his xBA is .271, I still wouldn't chase him based on his lack of power in the metrics and a 36th-percentile sprint speed. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. The Dodgers are on the list every week it seems, regardless of the matchup, due to their impressive roster. The Yankees face Kansas City and Boston, both of which are in fourth place in their respective divisions. Chisholm Jr., Judge, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger could have better-than-usual weeks. THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens. The best projected pitcher this week is Spencer Strider, who is also a trade target despite having a 0-5 record and 5.40 ERA. His xERA is not much better at 5.19. He's getting whiffs, but that's about it right now. Still, THE BAT X projects he'll improve, and he's at the top of the list this week. Tarik Skubal will likely always be on the top one-start pitchers list because he's nearly unstoppable, with a 2.16 ERA and strong Statcast metrics across the board. Going against the Orioles, he could dominate. At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Chris Sale, who will face the Brewers (third place in the NL Central) and the lowly Rockies (12-53). Sale is 3-4 but with a 2.93 ERA. He's struggling with walks a little, but otherwise has been impressive with a 30.9 (!) K rate and 34.7 (!) Chase%. On this list, Griffin Canning is the most available on waivers and sports a 2.90 ERA with a 6-2 record. His expected stats are much worse than his actual stats, but this is a good week to start him against Washington and Tampa Bay. Based on matchups, the Mets' bullpen should perform well, but that's typical, as they have the best team ERA in the league at 2.85. The Cubs' Daniel Palencia has a 1.64 ERA and five saves. His strikeouts are great, but he needs to reduce his walks a bit. Still, he's around 47% rostered on Yahoo, so if he's available on your wire, consider grabbing him this week, as he faces the Phillies and Pirates. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Agustín Ramírez: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
New York Times
2 hours ago
- New York Times
Are the Cardinals this season's plot twist? Plus: Boston rookie brought the spice
The Windup Newsletter ⚾ | This is The Athletic's MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup directly in your inbox. Are the Cardinals this year's plot twist? Plus: Ken dives into the Roman Anthony conundrum in Boston, where the Red Sox just took two of three from the Yankees. And if you're looking for an underdog, I found him: He's in Detroit. I'm Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup! I think the MLB season is more or less a theater show. It's never quite the same, but every year, some familiar roles are recast. Here's who's playing whom this year: There are the stars of the show (Tigers, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Padres), the What Happened ensemble (Orioles, Rangers, Red Sox, Diamondbacks and the Braves), the 'Hmmm, as I suspected: bad' chorus (Rockies, White Sox, Pirates, et al.), and then, there's everyone's favorite character: the Plot Twist. Advertisement By nature, plot twists are hard to identify less than halfway through the show. Remember last year, when the Pirates started the season 9-2? Had a winning record on Aug. 4? They almost had me. (In the end, it was the Tigers and Royals.) But this year … man, I'm starting to think it might be the Cardinals. After taking two of three from the Dodgers over the weekend, they're four games back in the NL Central, at 36-29 — the same record as the AL West-leading Houston Astros. So, are they for real? Hard to say. Going into last night's 7-3 loss to the Dodgers, they had scored 298 runs — seventh-best in the league. But everything else has been pretty aggressively average: Defensively, they were tied for 14th with 11 Defensive Runs saved, and their pitchers had allowed 266 runs allowed (also 14th). That rotation could get a boost soon, though, if they can find space for 24-year-old prospect Michael McGreevy, who showed some encouraging signs in his spot start against the Dodgers. As for the rest? We'll just have to keep watching, I guess. That's what makes the play so good. More Cardinals: Before Sunday's finale, the St. Louis played video of Matt Adams' home run off Clayton Kershaw in Game 4 of the 2014 NLDS. Kershaw said he thought it was 'bush league.' (He also picked up his first win of the year.) A few additional points to the column I wrote Sunday about the need for the Boston Red Sox to bring top prospect Roman Anthony to the majors: Did the Red Sox reward Campbell for agreeing to a potentially below-market contract? Did they effectively punish Anthony and infielder Marcelo Mayer for declining to do the same? No one can say for sure, particularly when the Sox were high on Campbell all spring and had more of a need at second base for him than in the outfield for Anthony or left side of the infield for Mayer. Still, player representatives often grow suspicious when teams make decisions clouded by financial implications. And Campbell wouldn't be the first whose debut appeared tied to his willingness to sign a pre-arbitration deal. NCAA athletes have gained control of their name, image and likeness rights and earning power. How is it that major-league teams still effectively control players for the first six years of their careers, and under a system that remains subject to manipulation, no less? The answer, of course, lies in the rules outlined in the sport's collective bargaining agreement. While players are free to market themselves the same way NCAA athletes do, they cannot bounce from club to club in search of better situations. The 2022 CBA struck a blow against service-time manipulation, awarding additional picks in the amateur draft to teams that keep rookies on their rosters long enough for the players to gain a full year of service. But service-time manipulation, while explicitly prohibited by the CBA, is difficult to prove. Forms of it still exist and always will, as long as baseball uses a tiered economic system based on a player's service. Could it be, though, that they want to ensure he does not finish first or second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, thus depriving him of gaining a full year of service and keeping him in Boston for an extra season? That also seems doubtful. Even if the possibility of Anthony winning Rookie of the Year was part of the initial equation for the Red Sox, it shouldn't have been. As stated in the column, the Sox are a big-market team. They need not fret over service-time considerations. They could always sign Anthony to an extension. At this point, it's probably too late for Anthony to win Rookie of the Year, anyway. Paul Skenes captured the NL award last season after debuting on May 11. Anthony would be getting started nearly a month later, and Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson is the clear front-runner for the award. Again, here's the column. Speaking of those Boston Red Sox … The vitriol isn't what it once was, but they butted heads with their division rivals over the weekend, and we did get at least one good quote: Red Sox rookie Hunter Dobbins, 25, said if the Yankees were the last team to offer him a contract, he'd retire. Whoa. Way to make it interesting again, kid. Advertisement The Yankees took the first game by getting revenge on the guy who threw the last pitch of the World Series. Walker Buehler only lasted two innings Friday night, allowing seven runs (five earned) as the Yankees cruised to a 9-6 win. Saturday, the Sox struck back, winning 10-7 to overcome Garrett Crochet's worst outing this year. Then last night, Aaron Judge's 22nd and 23rd home runs went to waste — it was Carlos Rodón's turn to have his first dud. Boston scored five runs in the sixth inning and five different Red Sox homered en route to an 11-7 Boston win. Oh, and the winning pitcher? Dobbins! He backed it up! The 32-35 Red Sox are still 6 1/2 games behind the Yankees, with the Rays and Blue Jays between them. It's not great in Boston, but the 39-25 Yankees missed an opportunity to make it much worse. A really cool moment happened Friday. With the Tigers clinging to a one-run lead over the Cubs in the eighth inning, manager A.J. Hinch decided to pinch hit for right fielder Kerry Carpenter. The new hitter? Jahmai Jones, whose big-league experience consisted of 69 games for four teams — the Angels, Orioles, Brewers and Yankees — since his 2020 debut. On the first pitch he saw from Génesis Cabrera, Jones swung hard and sent a hanging breaking ball soaring over the left-field wall. In Detroit, which is significant. See, Jahmai's dad Andre played for the Detroit Lions in 1992. So did Jahmai's brother T.J., from 2015-2018. But Andre didn't get to see either of them carry on his Motor City tradition. He died in 2011 of a brain aneurysm at just 42 years old. Cody Stavenhagen has the full story here. It's enough to make you root for the 27-year-old Jones, even if this is the first you're hearing about him. Oh by the way, Jones pinch-hit in the eighth inning again Saturday and singled. His pre-Tigers batting average? .198. As a Tiger, though — he's batting 1.000 so far. If you're the sort of baseball fan who needs an underdog to root for, Jones is my nomination. Trending up: the Blue Jays (8-2 in their last 10 games). Mitch Bannon explains what is going so right lately. Trending down: the Phillies (1-9 in their last 10, swept by the Pirates over the weekend). Bryce Harper (wrist) is on the IL, and Matt Gelb explains what (else) is going so wrong lately. It's official: Corbin Burnes is having Tommy John surgery. Ken says the implications go well beyond just the 2025 Diamondbacks. Juan Soto reached base six times yesterday. His OBP is up to .384, 15th in the majors. The (second) Craig Kimbrel era in Atlanta is over. After one day. Pete Alonso's new game-planning routine has been at the center of his big year, says WIll Sammon. Looking for the key to the Cubs' success? Don't overlook Kyle Tucker's 'aura,' but a resurgent Matt Shaw hasn't hurt, either. (Check back after the deadline to see if 'pitching' is added to this list.) 📫 Love The Windup? Check out The Athletic's other newsletters.
Los Angeles Times
2 hours ago
- Los Angeles Times
Dodgers Dugout: Breaking down the next opponent, the San Diego Padres
Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. The Dodgers head to San Diego for a three-game series with the Padres starting tonight. Whichever team wins the season series will have an advantage when it comes to winning the division, plus it also will give them the tiebreaker advantage should the teams tie. These are the first three of 13 games against the Padres this season, so let's take a look at them. You can see all the stats on the Padres team page at CatcherElías Díaz (.224/.288/.321, 71 OPS+)Martín Maldonado (.174/.203/.267, 32 OPS+) Neither one of these guys can hit, but are solid defensively. Maldonado won a Gold Glove way back in 2017 with the Angels. However, it's players such as these two, guys who have trouble hitting, who seem to come up big against the Dodgers, dating all the way back to Brian Doyle and the 1978 World Series. Bonus facts: Díaz was named minor league catcher of the year by Baseball America in 2015. On April 18, 2014 against Pittsburgh, Maldonado hit a grounder to third. Pirates third baseman Pedro Álvarez fielded the grounder, but the cover had partially come off the baseball and was hanging off its side; Álvarez threw the ball to first but it fell apart in midair. So, Maldonado is one guy who can say he literally knocked the cover off the ball. First baseLuis Arráez (.276/.310/.397, 97 OPS+) Arráez has won three straight batting titles (2022 with Minnesota, 2023 with Miami, 2024 with the Marlins and Padres). You'll notice that despite this, he has played for three different teams. The reason is he draws no walks, has little power, and it is believed his glove is made out of cast iron. Winning three straight batting titles is nothing to sneeze at, but that's all he brings to the table. Bonus fact: In June 2023, Arráez had three five-hit games, tying the record for most five-hit games in a month held by Ty Cobb, George Sisler and Dave Winfield. Second baseJake Cronenworth (.242/.373/.403, 119 OPS+) Cronenworth is having a rebound season at the plate after a couple of off seasons, and he has always been solid with the glove. Guys such as Cronenworth usually don't get the headlines, but help you win ballgames in ways that don't always show up in the box score. Bonus fact: He hit his first career home run in 2020 off of Dustin May. Third baseManny Machado (.318/.382/.515, 150 OPS+) While, as Yogi Berra once said, 'Nobody likes Manny Machado,' the fact remains that he is a great player. Outstanding hitter, outstanding on defense. Bonus facts: Machado has a dog named Kobe, named in honor of Kobe Bryant. Baltimore Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer once said of Machado: 'He reminds me of how I think Cal Ripken Jr. would have been if he had played third base his entire career.' ShortstopXander Bogaerts (.236/.321/.324, 83 OPS+) All the power in Bogaerts' bat disappeared two years ago and hasn't come back. He has a career .447 slugging percentage, but he hasn't cracked .400 in a season since 2023. Bonus fact: Bogaerts is one of only six players in major league history to be born in Aruba. The elementary school he went to there is now named after him. Left fieldTyler Wade (.235/.326/.272, 71 OPS+)Brandon Lockridge (.224/.272/.276, 55 OPS+) Left field has been a black hole offensively for the Padres, much as it has been for the Dodgers. Jason Heyward has the most starts in left, but he's on the IL. And he wasn't hitting either. This is a prime example for when we discuss the fact that the Dodgers aren't the only good team with holes in the lineup, Bonus facts: Wade played 67 games for the Angels in 2021. Lockridge made his major league debut on my birthday, which is probably a bonus fact only interesting to me. Center fieldJackson Merrill (.299/.352/.461, 123 OPS+) Last season, Merrill finished second in rookie of the year voting, ninth in MVP voting, was an All-Star and won the Silver Slugger award. Pretty decent first year, I'd say. He's back for more of the same this season, hitting better than he did last year. He's also good with the glove. Bonus fact: Merrill is the first rookie in Padres history to make the All-Star team. Right fieldFernando Tatis Jr. (.259/.332/.461, 120 OPS+) Still one of the top players in the game, however, his numbers at the plate have declined since his return from an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs in 2022. His OPS+ in the three seasons before: 154, 156, 166. Three seasons after: 110, 130, 120. Won a Gold Glove in 2023. Bonus fact: In 2021, Tatis became the youngest player to appear on the cover of the 'MLB: The Show' video game. Designated hitterGavin Sheets (.250/.307/.460, 112 OPS+) Sheets is second on the team in home runs (11) and leads the Padres in RBIs with 38. He sometimes plays first base, with Arráez moving to DH. Starting pitchingWe will focus on the three pitchers scheduled to start against the Dodgers. Nick Pivetta (6-2, 3.16 ERA, 127 ERA+)Dylan Cease (1-5, 4.72 ERA, 85 ERA+)Randy Vásquez (3-4, 3.69 ERA, 109 ERA+) Pivetta signed a four-year, $55-million deal in the offseason and has earned every penny so far, striking out 76 in 68 1/3 innings while giving up 51 hits and 19 walks. He spent the previous five seasons with the Red Sox. Cease is the nominal ace on the team, but hasn't pitched like one. He finished fourth in Cy Young voting last season. He has pitched into some bad luck, as his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA is 3.20. Vásquez has a good ERA, but his FIP is 5.34, meaning he has had some good luck. Traditionally, this means you can expect his ERA to go up, and Cease's to go down as the season wears on. FIP is heavily used by GM's and members of a front office's brain trust to determine how well a pitcher is really performing, so it's a good stat to know. Click on the link above to be taken to a full explanation of it. Bonus facts: Cease's paternal grandmother, Betty Cease, played pro baseball in the 1940s..... Pivetta made his major league debut in 2017 against the Dodgers.... Vásquez was included in the package the Yankees sent to the Padres to acquire Juan Soto before the 2024 season. CloserRobert Suarez (1-1, 1.84 ERA, 21 saves) Suarez leads the majors with 21 saves, has blown only two saves and has allowed zero of five inherited runners to score. Bonus fact: Suarez is a two-time Japan Series champion. The Dodgers have 14 pitchers on the IL, the Padres have five. Which is one reason for this: Rotation ERASan Diego, 3.80Dodgers, 4.29 Bullpen ERASan Diego, 3.08Dodgers, 3.94 The Dodgers outhit the Padres (5.54 runs per game to 4.10), but the Padres outpitch the Dodgers. Which side will win out in these three games? In the season? We'll find out. It will be fun to watch. Who are your top 10 Dodgers catchers of all time (including Brooklyn)? Email your list to top10catchers@ and let me know. Many of you have asked for a list of catchers to be considered. Here are the 40 strongest candidates, in alphabetical order. Rod Barajas, Austin Barnes, Roy Campanella, Gary Carter, Con Daily, Rick Dempsey, Bruce Edwards, A.J. Ellis, Tex Erwin, Duke Farrell, Joe Ferguson, Jack Fimple, Yasmani Grandal, John Grim, Tom Haller, Todd Hundley, Charles Johnson, Chad Kreuter, Ernie Krueger, Paul Lo Duca, Al López, Russell Martin, Lew McCarty, Deacon McGuire, Jack Meyers, Johnny Oates, Mickey Owen, Babe Phelps, Mike Piazza, Joe Pignatano, Tom Prince, John Roseboro, David Ross, Mike Scioscia, Norm Sherry, Duke Sims, Will Smith, Zack Taylor, Jeff Torborg, Álex Treviño, Steve Yeager. Dalton Rushing was brought up because Austin Barnes could no longer hit and was not as good as he used to be behind the plate. Rushing went two for four in his first game and two for five in his second, and it looked like they were going to have to find a way to get his bat in the lineup more often. Since then, he has gone three for 24 with 16 strikeouts. The league always adjusts to new batters. The question now is: Can Rushing adjust back? The Dodgers also have a I'm all for giving established players a chance. It worked for Max Muncy. However, I just want to throw this out there: It's time for Hyeseong Kim to play more, and Michael Conforto to play less. That concludes today's lecture. Tony Gonsolin has been put on the IL with tenderness in his pitching elbow. The good news is an MRI scan showed no structural damage. But that just adds a new name to the list of pitchers on the IL: Luis GarcíaTyler GlasnowTony GonsolinBrusdar GraterolMichael GroveEdgardo HenriquezKyle HurtEvan PhillipsRiver RyanRoki SasakiEmmet SheehanBlake SnellGavin StoneBlake Treinen The good news is Michael Kopech and Kirby Yates have come off the IL and pitched Sunday. That should be of enormous help to the bullpen. But I believe the starting rotations right now is: Yoshinobu YamamotoDustin MayClayton KershawOne of those cardboard cutouts from the 2020 season89-year-old Sandy Koufax The Dodgers need to get Glasnow and Snell healthy or the staff will be in tatters by the time the postseason rolls around. A look at how some prominent Dodgers from the last few seasons are doing with their new team (through Sunday). Click on the player name to be taken to the Baseball Reference page with all their stats. Batters Cody Bellinger, Yankees: .261/.336/.454, 250 plate appearances, 11 doubles, 2 triples, 9 homers, 35 RBIs, 121 OPS+ Michael Busch, Cubs: .276/.374/.515, 227 PA's, 11 doubles, 3 triples, 10 homers, 38 RBIs, 155 OPS+ Jason Heyward, Padres, .176/.223/.271, 95 PA's, 2 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBIs, 38 OPS+, on the IL Gavin Lux, Reds: .277/.367/.393, 218 PA's, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 2 homers, 26 RBIs, 108 OPS+ Zach McKinstry, Tigers: .271/.358/.417, 230 PA's, 10 doubles, 5 triples, 3 homers, 19 RBIs, 120 OPS+ Joc Pederson, Rangers, .131/.269/.238, 146 PA's, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 2 homers, 6 RBIs, 49 OPS+, on the IL Keibert Ruiz, Nationals, .255/.292/.332, 219 PA's, 10 doubles, 2 homers, 22 RBIs, 80 OPS+ Corey Seager, Rangers: .239/.297/.403, 145 PA's, 4 doubles, 6 homers, 12 RBIs, 100 OPS+ Chris Taylor, Angels: .222/.300/.444, 30 PA's, 3 doubles, 1 homer, 3 RBIs, 108 OPS+ (numbers with Angels only) Justin Turner, Cubs: .211/.302/.267, 106 PA's, 2 doubles, 1 homer, 11 RBIs, 67 OPS+ Trea Turner, Phillies: .300/.353/.446, 283 PA's, 13 doubles, 2 triples, 7 homers, 30 RBIs, 122 OPS+ Miguel Vargas, White Sox: .237/.319/.421, 257 PA's, 15 doubles, 9 homers, 29 RBIs, 109 OPS+ Alex Verdugo, Braves: .250/.305/.316, 164 PA's, 10 doubles, 11 RBIs, 76 OPS+ Pitching Walker Buehler, Red Sox: 4-4, 5.18 ERA, 48.2 IP, 53 hits, 17 walks, 44 K's, 80 ERA+ Jack Flaherty, Tigers: 5-6, 3.41 ERA, 71.1 IP, 53 hits, 23 walks, 85 K's, 117 ERA+ Kenley Jansen, Angels: 1-2, 4.64 ERA, 14 saves, 21.1 IP, 20 hits, 9 walks, 19 K's, 90 ERA+ Craig Kimbrel, Braves: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 K, designated for assignment Kenta Maeda, Cubs: 0-0, 7.88 ERA, eight IP, nine hits, six walks, eight K's, 52 ERA+, in the minors Ryan Pepiot, Rays: 3-5, 3.20 ERA, 76 IP, 64 hits, 22 walks, 64 K's, 121 ERA+ Max Scherzer, Blue Jays: 0-0, 6.00 ERA, three IP, three hits, 0 walks, one K, 77 ERA+, on the IL Ryan Yarbrough, Yankees: 3-1, 4.17 ERA, 45.1 IP, 39 hits, 13 walks, 43 K's, 96 ERA+ Is there a player you'd like to see listed here? Email me at and let me know. Monday: Dodgers (Dustin May, 3-4, 4.09 ERA) at San Diego (Nick Pivetta, 6-2, 3.16 ERA), 6:40 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, KTNQ 1020 Tuesday: Dodgers (TBD) at San Diego (Dylan Cease, 1-5, 4.72 ERA), 6:40 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, KTNQ 1020 Wednesday: Dodgers (*Justin Wrobelski, 1-2, 7.20 ERA) at San Diego (Randy Vásquez, 3-4, 3.69 ERA), 1:10 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, KTNQ 1020 *-left-handed Dodgers place starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin on the injured list Clayton Kershaw delivers exactly what the Dodgers need in win over Cardinals In 1988, Kirk Gibson scores from second on a wild pitch. Watch and listen here. Have a comment or something you'd like to see in a future Dodgers newsletter? Email me at and follow me on Twitter at @latimeshouston. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.
