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NBC Sports
2 hours ago
- Sport
- NBC Sports
2025 MLB Make or Miss Playoff Predictions: Odds, Expert Picks, Best Bets including Red Sox, Padres, Guardians
The second half of the MLB season starts up on Friday, and before first pitch, I have two teams in the make-or-miss playoff market worth betting on -- the San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox, plus a win total on the Cleveland Guardians. Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long. Boston Red Sox: (-140) to make the playoffs | (+115) to miss the playoffs The hottest team in all of baseball is the Boston Red Sox, who have won 10 straight games heading into the All-Star break! That makes this the perfect time to break down their miss or make the playoffs market because this is the best point to sell-high on Boston if you are a non-believer or it could be one of the final times to get a decent price on the Red Sox if you like where this team is headed toward the end of July. Where do I stand? I am fader. That's right. I enjoy watching and betting on Sox baseball. I think this team is competitive, but still a few hitters and another youthful pitcher or two away from being serious contenders. To continue to play devil's advocate, it's the schedule in a crowded AL East that does it for me. With records based on the first half of the season, per Tankathon, Boston has the third-toughest remaining strength of schedule (.516 winning %). Let's look at the first 15 games of the second half for Boston: 3 road games at the Cubs 3 road games at the Phillies 3 home games vs the Dodgers 3 road games at the Twins 3 home games vs the Astros I mean, 5-7 wins sounds about right for me out of 15 games, respectively, of course. When you consider the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays all have similar strength of schedules (10th, 15th, 18th) that are easier than the Red Sox's. I am going to take the plus-money here for 2 units and say Boston misses the playoffs. In a week or two, this could very well be -150 to -200 pending how the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers series go. I won't waste time and neither should you. Get some -105, +114 and +115 in my pocket across the three books I play. Pick: Boston Red Sox to miss the playoffs (2 units) If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports! San Diego Padres: (-115) to make the playoffs | (+105) to miss the playoffs San Diego is currently a slight favorite to YES -- that they will make the playoffs market. The Padres are 0.5 game ahead of the Giants for the final wild card spot and within 4.0 games of the Mets and Brewers, who are in the other two spots. Looking at the second half of the year per Tankathon, San Diego has the 4th-easiest strength of schedule remaining The Padres open the second-half with three games at the Nationals, three more at the Marlins, then to St. Louis for three more road games as part of a nine-game East Coast road trip. However, we have to admit, those are decent matchups to have a winning record across for a 9-game road trip — in other words, it could be much worse. After that nine-game road trip, the next 27 games will be on the West Coast for San Diego, whether they are in California, Arizona or Washington (the state). San Diego will be in a prime position to make a run at the playoffs, but I still haven't gotten to the best part. The final month of the season is a great opportunity for the Padres to gain ground too -- in the final 28 games -- 13 of those are against the Orioles, White Sox, and Rockies! Baltimore could be tanking and we know how atrocious Chicago and Colorado have been the past season and a half. It doesn't get better than that. Lay 2 units on the Padres to make the playoffs at -115 or -118 odds — out to -140. I think they nab one of those three Wild Card spots. Pick: Padres to make the playoffs (2 units) Cleveland Guardians: O/U 79.5 Wins The Cleveland Guardians are 46-49 with 67 games remaining, and of those 67 games, they have the easiest strength of schedule in all of baseball with an opponent winning percentage below 48%. If you look at the Guardians' schedule, you'll wish it were your favorite team's schedule. To start the second half of the year, Cleveland hosts the Athletics and Orioles (4-game series) for seven total games, then to Kansas City for a three-game set to return and host the Rockies and Twins for six more home games. After that, a quick three games in New York with the Mets before facing the White Sox in Chicago for three, and back to hosting the Marlins for a three-game set. I just gave you the first 24 games of the 67 and the teams were the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies, Twins, Mets, White Sox, and Marlins -- beautiful! It could be a sweaty finish, though, I must admit. The Guardians will host the Royals and White Sox for seven games in mid-September, then a rough patch. Cleveland will play three road games in Detroit, four more in Minnesota, then back at home for six games total hosting Detroit and Texas, so four potential playoff teams over 12 games to finish the season. That's not nearly as appealing, but doable if they run through the cupcake schedule in July and August. To reach 80 wins, Cleveland will have to finish the second half with a 34-33 record or better. If the Guardians win three of the first four series out of the break for an 8-5 record or better -- we should be feeling good about this play. Cleveland is also working Shane Bieber back into the mix after having Tommy John surgery in 2024. He makes a rehab start this week, while hitters Lane Thomas and Gabriel Arias are expected back shortly, plus relievers Paul Sewald and Trevor Stephan from the IL -- All good news for Cleveland. I like the Guardians to go over 79.5 wins at -110 odds. Pick: Cleveland Guardians Over 79.5 Wins (2 units) Vaughn Dalzell's MLB Futures Card 2 units: Boston Red Sox to miss the playoffs (+115) 2 units: San Diego Padres to make the playoffs (-115) 2 units: Cleveland Guardians Over 79.5 Wins (-110) 2 units: Aaron Judge to lead MLB in home runs (+130) 2 units: Cam Smith to win AL Rookie of the Year (+150) 2 units: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (-110) 1 unit: Shohei Ohtani to win NL MVP (-110) 1 unit: Bobby Witt to win AL MVP (+450) 1 unit: Elly De La Cruz to win NL MVP (+2000) 1 unit: Garrett Crochet to win AL CY Young (+450) 1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+115) 1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+300) 1 unit: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (+100) 1 unit: Byron Buxton to win AL Comeback Player of the Year (+430) 1 unit: New York Yankees to win AL East (-115) 0.5 unit: Dodgers to win 117-plus games (+650) 0.5 unit: Paul Skenes to lead MLB in wins (+1400) 0.5 unit: Garrett Crochet to lead MLB in wins (+2200) 0.5 unit: Juan Soto to lead the MLB in homers (+2800) 0.5 unit: Yordan Alvarez to lead the MLB in homers (+2000) 0.5 unit: Roman Anthony to win AL Rookie of the Year (+1200) 0.5 unit: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (+1100) 0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 by the All-Star break (+800) 0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 for the season (+5500) 0.25 unit: Oneil Cruz to lead MLB in stolen bases (+15000) Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff: Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Baltimore's Charlie Morton connected in trade talks to AL East rival
Charlie Morton signed a one-year, $15 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles last offseason; however, the start of the 2025 MLB season didn't go well. Morton struggled and moved to the bullpen, where he began to find his groove. Baltimore then drove the 41-year-old back into the starting rotation, and it has worked well. Morton has posted a 2.72 ERA in his last seven games with a 4-0 record, giving the Orioles a much-needed boost in the pitching department. But could Baltimore look to move Morton ahead of the 2025 MLB trade deadline? The Orioles are listening, and one of those teams calling seems to be an AL East rival. According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, Morton is a possibility for the Boston Red Sox, which currently has a 10-game winning streak. Boston needs more pitching, and while it hopes to acquire someone who could provide more consistency, Morton could be a low risk, high reward option at his current price tag. Red Sox manager Alex Cora has worked with Morton before on the 2017 Houston Astros, so this wouldn't be an unfamiliar situation. There was a time when Baltimore could have eaten the money and designated Morton for assignment; however, the possibility of acquiring an asset at the MLB trade deadline is growing by the Headlines Yankees To Trade for Jose Ramirez? Top Reporter Makes Huge Deadline Prediction LeBron James 'Gearing Up for Retirement' from NBA? Tarik Skubal 'all but guaranteed' to leave Detroit Tigers after 2026 Sonoma Security Guard Charged After Violent Assault on Wheelchair-bound Racer at NASCAR Event
New York Times
12 hours ago
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB trade deadline tiers 2.0: Sorting through the buyers, sellers and ‘tailors'
Which way is your team leaning? There's barely more than a fortnight separating us from baseball's trade deadline, and the postseason races in each league have only become more interesting since we initially broke each team down into tiers of deadline action. The AL East has turned into a three- or four-team race, the NL Central looks the best it has since 2015, and the Mets and Phillies have been trading first place back and forth over the last couple of weeks. Advertisement All told, 16 teams — or more than half the league — own at least a 20 percent chance of making the postseason. This time last year, eventual playoff teams had odds of 43.9 percent (Mets), 39.5 percent (Padres) and 7.6 percent (Tigers). The Twins were at 82.7 percent. Sorry to remind you, Minnesota. So what should each of the 30 teams be planning on doing at the deadline? We've broken them down beyond just buyers and sellers; we're looking at how aggressively each team should pursue its path, as well as which teams should be tailors, looking to thread the needle by buying for and selling off its major-league roster. This tier probably speaks for itself, but in case you're looking for justification: according to FanGraphs, the top four teams have at least an 88 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 9.5 percent chance of winning the World Series. In other words, they're the four October shoo-ins most likely to actually go all the way. Plus, we've included the Cubs, who are heavy favorites to reach the postseason (93.7 percent) but linger slightly below the others in World Series odds (6.9 percent). The fact they've already made an aggressive offseason trade for Kyle Tucker, though, puts the Cubs on something close to an all-in path. They also have a solid farm system — sixth-best in Keith Law's preseason rankings — that could help them make a splash. So, these are our top five. The Dodgers and Yankees are no strangers to this tier. They consistently spend money anyway, and they met in the World Series a year ago. They're among the best teams in baseball again this year, but each team has needs. The Yankees still don't have a third baseman, the Dodgers have once again run out of starting pitchers (frankly, the Yankees could use a starter, too) and both teams could use another bullpen arm or two. The Phillies are also firmly within their window of contention, and the fact their core is aging could give them even more incentive to be aggressive. Stop us if you've heard this before, but the Phillies could use an elite reliever and a good right-handed hitter (the reliever seems far easier to acquire in this market). Advertisement Then there are the Tigers. They were a feel-good story last year. This year, they're just good. With the most wins in baseball at the break, the Tigers had a deep and versatile lineup, a deep and versatile bullpen, and a good rotation beyond arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Tarik Skubal. They have enough versatility to add almost anywhere and make it work. These are the remaining teams with a better than 70-percent chance of making the playoffs. The Astros and Blue Jays have played well enough to make a compelling case for Tier 1 status, but their World Series odds are quite a bit lower than most of the top tier. Besides, the Astros' farm system is pretty weak, and their best route to upgrades might be in getting players healthy (Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, Jeremy Peña, Luis Garcia) and hoping for impact from recently promoted second baseman Brice Matthews. The rest seem to be fairly standard buyers except maybe the Mets, who at times this season appeared to be as good as any team in the majors. They've slipped from that pedestal — pitching injuries have taken a toll — but the fact they've shown such high-end potential could, in theory, drive an uber-wealthy owner to make a splash. Obviously, we're not putting the Mets in that ultra-aggressive tier, but we're not ruling it out, either. The Brewers and Blue Jays have each been promoted from Tier 3 in our first Trade Tiers analysis. Both were trending to the buy side a month ago, and both have continued that trajectory. The Blue Jays need pitching. The Brewers need offense. With a better than 80-percent chance of making the playoffs, each team has reason to address those needs in anticipation of making a run. No team reached the All-Star break trending to the buy side quite like the Boston Red Sox. As of late June, their playoff odds were down to 13 percent, and the fact they'd already traded Rafael Devers made it hard to think of the Red Sox as true buyers. But they're currently riding a 10-game winning streak, including a four-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend. Their playoff odds have soared to just over 50 percent. Alex Bregman is healthy again, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito have helped stabilize the rotation, and the Red Sox are trending heavily to the buy side. Advertisement The Padres and Giants, on the other hand, aren't trending heavily in either direction, but they might have done just enough to keep themselves from falling all the way into seller's territory. Each has been erratic, but their playoff odds have settled right around 50 percent. They're basically in position to duke it out for the last wild-card spot, with the Cardinals and Reds kind of lurking behind them, which is enough to keep them on the buy side. This is our tier for teams threading the needle — both buying and selling — and our first Trade Tiers also listed three tailors, but we've since moved the Red Sox up to the buy side and moved the Diamondbacks down toward the sellers. We've kept the Cardinals in this tier, though it is perhaps against our better judgment. They're a good week away from holding a wild-card spot, but the fact they approached this as a rebuilding year from the beginning suggests they might lean to the sell side unless absolutely compelled to buy. Could they trade closer Ryan Helsley without necessarily giving up on a late-season charge? Maybe. The other three teams in this tier also have notable assets (Braves catcher Sean Murphy, Twins infielder Willi Castro, Rangers outfielder Adolis García) who could be traded for a reasonable return without necessarily giving up on this season or next. (Rangers reliever Chris Martin, Twins outfielder Harrison Bader, and Braves closer Raisel Iglesias might also fit that description.) None of these teams seems especially likely to make the playoffs this year, but each has enough good, controllable players to think they could be contenders again in 2026. That might be enough to keep them from aggressively selling, and could also lead them to add a little bit if it's a player with additional years of control. The Twins face a tough decision on whether to trade All-Star starter Joe Ryan, who has two more years of team control. The Rangers and Braves were preseason favorites to win a pennant, but each has underperformed for the second year in a row. We could see them dealing impending free agents off the major-league roster while also seeking to add big-leaguers with longer team control to improve next year. The Rays were trending to the buy side last time we did Trade Tiers, so much so that the league was plotting where they'd host playoff games. But they lost 11 of 14 heading into the break, including a brutal four-game sweep against the Red Sox — the team directly ahead of them in the standings — in which three of the four losses were by one run. The Rays' playoff odds have gone from 81.4 percent on June 28 to 37.1 percent at the break. Ha-Seong Kim just made his season debut, the other three Rays infielders are All-Stars, Shane McClanahan finally started a rehab assignment, and the Rays already made a modest addition by trading for reliever Bryan Baker. Could they thread the needle by buying and selling? Sure. But the Rays aggressively sold with a similar record at this point last year, and they could decide to take that course again. As for the other three teams in this tier, all were in a middle tier last time (the Diamondbacks looked like tailors, the Guardians and Royals were in the murky AL Central) but the DBacks just haven't been able to gain much traction, while the entire AL Central — outside of the Tigers — has fallen to sub-.500. FanGraphs still gives the Twins better playoff odds than the Guardians or Royals (more than twice as high, in fact), but, really, it's not looking good for any of those in-the-middle AL Central teams. It's unfair to put the Reds in this tier. They have far better playoff odds than the others — 11.1 percent, slightly better than the Diamondbacks and Guardians — and their run differential is almost identical to the Mariners and far better than either the Blue Jays or Padres, but, honestly, what are they going to do? Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagan, Taylor Rogers and Austin Hays are pending free agents playing well enough to have some trade value, but none is a strong candidate for a qualifying offer (and Martinez isn't a candidate at all, by virtue of already getting one in his career). Should the Reds really keep those guys when their playoff odds have only briefly jumped above 15 percent this season? Maybe they could try to thread the needle given some of the young talent on the roster, but the Reds just haven't made a compelling move toward the buy side. Advertisement The rest of this tier probably speaks for itself. The Angels are only two games below .500, but their 4 percent playoff odds and negative-62 run differential suggest they're not going to close that gap in a meaningful way. If anything, we could argue more in favor of selling aggressively. We'd say the same for the White Sox and Athletics, except the White Sox just don't have much worth selling, and the best A's trade chips are relatively young, controllable assets — they type they'd probably like to acquire. They could move a few veterans, but that's typical, not aggressive. These are the teams with a need to sell and some assets worth selling. No one is suggesting the Orioles are going to do something drastic and trade away a centerpiece like Gunnar Henderson, but Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Zach Eflin, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto and Ramón Laureano are all pending free agents with value, suggesting the Orioles could dump almost a quarter of their roster without touching their future. Our previous Trade Tiers had the Pirates in the typical sellers category, in part because some of their bigger assets — notably, outfielder Bryan Reynolds and reliever David Bednar — had bad numbers to sap their value, but Reynolds has since shown some signs of life, and Bednar has been legitimately good. The Pirates could also trade third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, setup man Dennis Santana, and perhaps starter Mitch Keller. There's potential for a significant reset in Pittsburgh. Same in Miami where Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera (depending on his health) could be two of the more intriguing starting pitchers on the market, and trading them would signal a significant shift from one era to the next. The Rockies and Nationals don't have quite those assets, but Ryan McMahon and Jake Bird (from the Rockies) and Michael Soroka, Kyle Finnegan and Nathaniel Lowe (from the Nationals) should have some value, and each of those teams should have only a small handful of players they're truly hesitant to move. (Illustration of Joe Ryan, Sean Murphy and Bryan Reynolds: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Kevin C. Cox, Matt Krohn, Luke Hales / Getty Images)
San Francisco Chronicle
a day ago
- Sport
- San Francisco Chronicle
What must Giants do in the second half to return to the postseason?
If the season ended today, the San Francisco Giants, at 52-45, would be on the outside of the playoffs looking in — by a half game. They'll begin the second half behind the San Diego Padres for the third wild-card spot while vying with quite a few other teams for a postseason berth. The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets hold the first two wild-card spots. Close behind the Giants, by a game, are the St. Louis Cardinals with the Cincinnati Reds (two back) and Arizona Diamondbacks (five back) within range. The NL West crown is still within reach, too, with the Giants six games back of the Dodgers despite dropping two of three to Los Angeles last weekend. How does the second half look for the Giants as they try to return to the postseason for the first time since 2021? Here's a look. Schedule: The first series out of the break won't be a soft landing. The Giants will travel to Toronto to play a Blue Jays team that's just soared into first place in the AL East by winning 11 of 14. Then they'll go to Atlanta, a team they swept at home earlier in the year. They haven't played well against sub-.500 teams — they were swept at home by the Miami Marlins and dropped a series to the Chicago White Sox — but they have a few easier stretches in the second half. At the end of July and August, they'll see the Pittsburgh Pirates at home and on the road within two weeks, then play the Washington Nationals at home and, toward the end of the month, the Baltimore Orioles. They'll also make a visit to New York to play the Mets, who are vying with the Philadelphia Phillies for the NL East crown. Their most challenging stretch will begin with a four-game series against the Padres in San Diego (Aug. 18-21) followed by a trip to Milwaukee for three before returning home to face the first-place Chicago Cubs. September could be an uphill battle. The month begins and ends against the NL-worst Colorado Rockies, but in between there are home and away series against Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Cardinals. Promising trends: Success in the second half will be easier if a few players turn their seasons around. A handful appear to have taken a step in the right direction. Great as the rotation has been at the top with All-Stars Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, it could get even better if Justin Verlander 's mechanical tweak pays off. Ironically, given his quest to enter the 300 wins club, Verlander entered the All-Star break without a win as a Giant and a good number of his losses (he's 0-7) and no-decisions (eight) weren't his fault as he's received some of the worst run support in baseball. But Verlander, at 42, was starting to look mortal, lacking deception in his offerings. He tweaked his delivery slightly in his last start against the Phillies and saw his velocity improve, which led to a lot of ugly swings. If he can pick up where he left off — with his experience chasing the postseason — he could kick the pitching staff into another gear. It would be huge if Willy Adames keeps up what he did in the month before the break. He's been a different hitter since Rafael Devers debuted with the Giants on June 17, batting .279 with an .853 OPS, four home runs and four other extra-base hits over his past 25 games. He'd batted .201 with a .624 OPS, eight homers and 12 other extra base hits in his first 71 games. Adames attributed his turnaround to confidence acclimating to a new outdoor ballpark known not to reward every well-hit line drive — he'd previously played his entire career in domes in Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. An awakening from Devers is likely essential. A career .277 hitter, the three-time AL All-Star has hit only .202 with two home runs and 10 RBI in his 25 games with the Giants. Trade deadline: Buster Posey and Co. made their big move well before the deadline, adding Devers on June 15 to give a listless lineup some pop. They could add a bat, perhaps another right-handed hitting outfielder. The pitching staff has been the Giants' savior, but Posey may look to strengthen that group. In trading for Devers, the Giants gave up depth in Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks. Perhaps they explore the market for another starting pitcher to supplement the rotation given uncertainty around Verlander and Hayden Birdsong 's durability and effectiveness in the second half. Erik Miller's elbow sprain should prompt them to look for another left-handed reliever, too.
Newsweek
a day ago
- Sport
- Newsweek
Astros Should Look to Upgrade Middle Infield, Cut Ties With Brendan Rodgers
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Houston Astros know they have a chance to win the American League pennant this season even ahead of the Detroit Tigers or whoever comes out of the AL East. This is an Astros team that has dealt with a lot of injuries, but has a talented roster. One way the team can get even better is upgrading the middle infield and either demoting or cutting ties with Brendan Rodgers. Rodgers has gotten most of his work at second base for Houston, but he's yet to make the most of it. His slash line as of the All-Star break is a mere .191/.266/.278 with two home runs and 11 RBI. HOUSTON, TEXAS - JUNE 14: Brendan Rodgers #1 of the Houston Astros bats in the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at Daikin Park on June 14, 2025 in Houston, Texas. HOUSTON, TEXAS - JUNE 14: Brendan Rodgers #1 of the Houston Astros bats in the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at Daikin Park on June 14, 2025 in Houston, only recorded 115 at-bats so far this season, so it's not the largest sample size in the world, but it's enough to show he isn't producing the way he should be for a contender. The Astros only signed him to a one-year deal worth $2 million, so the organization wouldn't even be losing out on much if it chose to designate him for assignment. Houston has been moving star Jose Altuve around between left field and second base. He's much more comfortable at second base, but the Astros have nobody else who can swing the bat well enough to play left. Cooper Hummell and Taylor Trammell, the other two outfield options, are hitting even worse than Rodgers. Rodgers isn't getting it done, so the organization must do one of two things before the trade deadline passes: find someone to play second base and keep Altuve in left field or move Altuve to second base and acquire a left fielder. If the Astros bring in an infielder, Ramón Urías from the Baltimore Orioles is versatile and has a little more pop in his bat. If they choose to push for an outfielder, Taylor Ward or one of the two Boston Red Sox outfielders who could be dealt (Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu). Houston has played this jigsaw puzzle for far too long this year, and it's a game the organization can't continue to play heading into the playoffs. More MLB: Dodgers Should Officially Cut Ties With Struggling $17 Million Outfielder
