MLB trade deadline tiers 2.0: Sorting through the buyers, sellers and ‘tailors'

New York Times

17-07-2025

Which way is your team leaning?
There's barely more than a fortnight separating us from baseball's trade deadline, and the postseason races in each league have only become more interesting since we initially broke each team down into tiers of deadline action. The AL East has turned into a three- or four-team race, the NL Central looks the best it has since 2015, and the Mets and Phillies have been trading first place back and forth over the last couple of weeks.
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All told, 16 teams — or more than half the league — own at least a 20 percent chance of making the postseason. This time last year, eventual playoff teams had odds of 43.9 percent (Mets), 39.5 percent (Padres) and 7.6 percent (Tigers). The Twins were at 82.7 percent. Sorry to remind you, Minnesota.
So what should each of the 30 teams be planning on doing at the deadline? We've broken them down beyond just buyers and sellers; we're looking at how aggressively each team should pursue its path, as well as which teams should be tailors, looking to thread the needle by buying for and selling off its major-league roster.
This tier probably speaks for itself, but in case you're looking for justification: according to FanGraphs, the top four teams have at least an 88 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 9.5 percent chance of winning the World Series. In other words, they're the four October shoo-ins most likely to actually go all the way.
Plus, we've included the Cubs, who are heavy favorites to reach the postseason (93.7 percent) but linger slightly below the others in World Series odds (6.9 percent). The fact they've already made an aggressive offseason trade for Kyle Tucker, though, puts the Cubs on something close to an all-in path. They also have a solid farm system — sixth-best in Keith Law's preseason rankings — that could help them make a splash.
So, these are our top five. The Dodgers and Yankees are no strangers to this tier. They consistently spend money anyway, and they met in the World Series a year ago. They're among the best teams in baseball again this year, but each team has needs. The Yankees still don't have a third baseman, the Dodgers have once again run out of starting pitchers (frankly, the Yankees could use a starter, too) and both teams could use another bullpen arm or two. The Phillies are also firmly within their window of contention, and the fact their core is aging could give them even more incentive to be aggressive. Stop us if you've heard this before, but the Phillies could use an elite reliever and a good right-handed hitter (the reliever seems far easier to acquire in this market).
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Then there are the Tigers. They were a feel-good story last year. This year, they're just good. With the most wins in baseball at the break, the Tigers had a deep and versatile lineup, a deep and versatile bullpen, and a good rotation beyond arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Tarik Skubal. They have enough versatility to add almost anywhere and make it work.
These are the remaining teams with a better than 70-percent chance of making the playoffs. The Astros and Blue Jays have played well enough to make a compelling case for Tier 1 status, but their World Series odds are quite a bit lower than most of the top tier. Besides, the Astros' farm system is pretty weak, and their best route to upgrades might be in getting players healthy (Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, Jeremy Peña, Luis Garcia) and hoping for impact from recently promoted second baseman Brice Matthews.
The rest seem to be fairly standard buyers except maybe the Mets, who at times this season appeared to be as good as any team in the majors. They've slipped from that pedestal — pitching injuries have taken a toll — but the fact they've shown such high-end potential could, in theory, drive an uber-wealthy owner to make a splash. Obviously, we're not putting the Mets in that ultra-aggressive tier, but we're not ruling it out, either.
The Brewers and Blue Jays have each been promoted from Tier 3 in our first Trade Tiers analysis. Both were trending to the buy side a month ago, and both have continued that trajectory. The Blue Jays need pitching. The Brewers need offense. With a better than 80-percent chance of making the playoffs, each team has reason to address those needs in anticipation of making a run.
No team reached the All-Star break trending to the buy side quite like the Boston Red Sox. As of late June, their playoff odds were down to 13 percent, and the fact they'd already traded Rafael Devers made it hard to think of the Red Sox as true buyers. But they're currently riding a 10-game winning streak, including a four-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend. Their playoff odds have soared to just over 50 percent. Alex Bregman is healthy again, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito have helped stabilize the rotation, and the Red Sox are trending heavily to the buy side.
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The Padres and Giants, on the other hand, aren't trending heavily in either direction, but they might have done just enough to keep themselves from falling all the way into seller's territory. Each has been erratic, but their playoff odds have settled right around 50 percent. They're basically in position to duke it out for the last wild-card spot, with the Cardinals and Reds kind of lurking behind them, which is enough to keep them on the buy side.
This is our tier for teams threading the needle — both buying and selling — and our first Trade Tiers also listed three tailors, but we've since moved the Red Sox up to the buy side and moved the Diamondbacks down toward the sellers. We've kept the Cardinals in this tier, though it is perhaps against our better judgment. They're a good week away from holding a wild-card spot, but the fact they approached this as a rebuilding year from the beginning suggests they might lean to the sell side unless absolutely compelled to buy. Could they trade closer Ryan Helsley without necessarily giving up on a late-season charge? Maybe.
The other three teams in this tier also have notable assets (Braves catcher Sean Murphy, Twins infielder Willi Castro, Rangers outfielder Adolis García) who could be traded for a reasonable return without necessarily giving up on this season or next. (Rangers reliever Chris Martin, Twins outfielder Harrison Bader, and Braves closer Raisel Iglesias might also fit that description.)
None of these teams seems especially likely to make the playoffs this year, but each has enough good, controllable players to think they could be contenders again in 2026. That might be enough to keep them from aggressively selling, and could also lead them to add a little bit if it's a player with additional years of control. The Twins face a tough decision on whether to trade All-Star starter Joe Ryan, who has two more years of team control. The Rangers and Braves were preseason favorites to win a pennant, but each has underperformed for the second year in a row. We could see them dealing impending free agents off the major-league roster while also seeking to add big-leaguers with longer team control to improve next year.
The Rays were trending to the buy side last time we did Trade Tiers, so much so that the league was plotting where they'd host playoff games. But they lost 11 of 14 heading into the break, including a brutal four-game sweep against the Red Sox — the team directly ahead of them in the standings — in which three of the four losses were by one run. The Rays' playoff odds have gone from 81.4 percent on June 28 to 37.1 percent at the break. Ha-Seong Kim just made his season debut, the other three Rays infielders are All-Stars, Shane McClanahan finally started a rehab assignment, and the Rays already made a modest addition by trading for reliever Bryan Baker. Could they thread the needle by buying and selling? Sure. But the Rays aggressively sold with a similar record at this point last year, and they could decide to take that course again.
As for the other three teams in this tier, all were in a middle tier last time (the Diamondbacks looked like tailors, the Guardians and Royals were in the murky AL Central) but the DBacks just haven't been able to gain much traction, while the entire AL Central — outside of the Tigers — has fallen to sub-.500. FanGraphs still gives the Twins better playoff odds than the Guardians or Royals (more than twice as high, in fact), but, really, it's not looking good for any of those in-the-middle AL Central teams.
It's unfair to put the Reds in this tier. They have far better playoff odds than the others — 11.1 percent, slightly better than the Diamondbacks and Guardians — and their run differential is almost identical to the Mariners and far better than either the Blue Jays or Padres, but, honestly, what are they going to do? Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagan, Taylor Rogers and Austin Hays are pending free agents playing well enough to have some trade value, but none is a strong candidate for a qualifying offer (and Martinez isn't a candidate at all, by virtue of already getting one in his career). Should the Reds really keep those guys when their playoff odds have only briefly jumped above 15 percent this season? Maybe they could try to thread the needle given some of the young talent on the roster, but the Reds just haven't made a compelling move toward the buy side.
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The rest of this tier probably speaks for itself. The Angels are only two games below .500, but their 4 percent playoff odds and negative-62 run differential suggest they're not going to close that gap in a meaningful way. If anything, we could argue more in favor of selling aggressively. We'd say the same for the White Sox and Athletics, except the White Sox just don't have much worth selling, and the best A's trade chips are relatively young, controllable assets — they type they'd probably like to acquire. They could move a few veterans, but that's typical, not aggressive.
These are the teams with a need to sell and some assets worth selling. No one is suggesting the Orioles are going to do something drastic and trade away a centerpiece like Gunnar Henderson, but Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Zach Eflin, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto and Ramón Laureano are all pending free agents with value, suggesting the Orioles could dump almost a quarter of their roster without touching their future.
Our previous Trade Tiers had the Pirates in the typical sellers category, in part because some of their bigger assets — notably, outfielder Bryan Reynolds and reliever David Bednar — had bad numbers to sap their value, but Reynolds has since shown some signs of life, and Bednar has been legitimately good. The Pirates could also trade third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, setup man Dennis Santana, and perhaps starter Mitch Keller. There's potential for a significant reset in Pittsburgh. Same in Miami where Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera (depending on his health) could be two of the more intriguing starting pitchers on the market, and trading them would signal a significant shift from one era to the next.
The Rockies and Nationals don't have quite those assets, but Ryan McMahon and Jake Bird (from the Rockies) and Michael Soroka, Kyle Finnegan and Nathaniel Lowe (from the Nationals) should have some value, and each of those teams should have only a small handful of players they're truly hesitant to move.
(Illustration of Joe Ryan, Sean Murphy and Bryan Reynolds: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Kevin C. Cox, Matt Krohn, Luke Hales / Getty Images)