'Barnburner' expected in Golden-LePage matchup in Maine's 2nd District

Yahoo

27-05-2025

May 27—It's only been about six months since Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Golden survived what was billed as the fight of his political life, narrowly winning reelection in a Republican-leaning district against a former NSCAR driver endorsed by Donald Trump and U.S. House Speaker Michael Johnson.
Yet, Golden, who eked out a victory over Austin Theriault even though Trump won the 2nd District by 9 points, is already locked into the next battle of his political life — this time against Paul LePage, a former two-term Republican governor whose base of support rests solidly in the 2nd Congressional District.
"We thought it was exciting last time," said Daniel Shea, a professor of government at Colby College in Waterville. "It's going to be a barnburner, I'll tell you that."
Once again, Maine's 2nd District will be one of the top — if not the top — pick-up opportunities for Republicans in the House of Representatives. Golden is one of the few Democratic House members representing a Trump district. At the same time, history suggests House Republicans will be facing headwinds in the midterm elections, given that their party controls the White House and Trump will not be on the ballot.
Primaries for each party are still a year away, so there is time for other candidates to emerge. Although State Auditor and former Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap is considering a primary challenge against Golden, political observers see the field as largely set barring an extraordinary insurgency in either party or a strong third-party candidate.
The official campaign arm of the House Democrats has already made it clear that Golden is their guy. On the other side, the official campaign arm of House Republicans has promoted a poll commissioned by a conservative group showing LePage leading Golden in the district. And Theriault ruled out a run and endorsed LePage, urging other Republicans to do the same to avoid a potentially costly and contentious primary.
Dunlap said in an interview Friday that he has been having "overwhelmingly positive" conversations and also hearing some concern about his potential primary challenge to Golden. Before he decides, he needs to consider how such a campaign will impact his family and whether it's worth leaving a job he's really enjoying.
"A lot of those discussions need to happen," Dunlap said.
Both Golden and LePage are well-known to 2nd District voters and have compelling biographies.
Golden enlisted in the Marines after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and served in combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, before returning home, earning a degree from Bates College, working as a congressional aide for Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins, serving in the Maine House and being elected to Congress in 2018.
LePage grew up in poverty and became homeless for a short period after escaping an abusive household. With the help of former U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe's first husband, LePage was admitted to and earned a degree from Husson College — now Husson University. He went on to have successful careers as a turnaround specialist in the forest products industry and as general manager of Marden's before becoming the mayor of Waterville and then Maine's 74th governor.
Shea said the race has interesting dynamics for each candidate. LePage is well-known, so he won't have to spend time or money to build name recognition. But many voters already have their minds made up about him.
"The good news is, for a lot of voters in the 2nd CD, LePage is well-regarded," Shea said.
Golden has the advantage of incumbency as he seeks a fifth term, but that edge has its limits. While Shea said incumbents usually face their most difficult reelection races for their second or third terms, that hasn't been the case with Golden, who has faced a series of tough opponents in his right-leaning district.
"Jared Golden is confronting it every single race. He's had to work really hard to keep that seat," Shea said. "It's very rare for incumbents who are not widely out of sync with their district or confronting a scandal to lose."
In an interview after announcing his decision to seek reelection, Golden said he is running for reelection to Congress, rather than governor or the U.S. Senate, to help Democrats break the Republican trifecta in Washington. Republicans control the White House, Senate and House and are using their dominance to push for cuts to Medicaid and tax breaks to wealthy Americans, efforts criticized by Golden last week.
"I'm not really interested in standing aside and letting (LePage) walk into Congress, because I think he's bad for Maine and for the people I represent in the Maine 2nd Congressional District," Golden said. "The collective voice of my constituents is decidedly in favor of more health care coverage not less."
Aides for LePage would not make him available for an interview for this story. But the former governor has been making the rounds on conservative radio and TV programs to accuse Golden of neglecting his district. LePage's campaign has been active on social media.
As in previous campaigns, LePage is focusing on welfare reform and advocating for a national policy to put people's photos on EBT cards used to distribute public benefits, while also joining the backlash against transgender athletes.
"MAINE NEEDS A STRONGER VOICE IN CONGRESS," LePage said in an X post on Wednesday. "Straight Talk. Someone with a record of creating jobs, fighting the woke extremism, cutting wasteful spending, safeguarding hospitals, protecting taxpayers, defending the 2nd Amendment, and always looking out for seniors who rely on Social Security and Medicare."
Golden is already looking to remind voters about the controversial and unpopular parts of LePage's record, while also highlighting how the former governor has mostly lived in Florida since leaving office, only returning to mount comeback attempts.
Golden recalled in an interview how LePage in 2017 reportedly said in a private meeting that the Lewiston legislative delegation, of which he was a member, should be "rounded up and executed in Kennedy Park." LePage's aids denied the comment was made, as did others who were present at the meeting.
Golden, who was the assistant leader of House Democrats during the last two years of LePage's term as governor, also recalled how LePage vetoed MaineCare expansion seven times and then refused to implement the expansion after it was approved in a statewide vote.
And when Golden unseated Republican Bruce Poliquin in the 2nd District in 2018 in a ranked-choice election, LePage wrote "stolen election" on the official certification of election results.
"When I won in 2018, he became the originator of the stolen election lie," Golden said. "He literally wrote it on my election certificate, 'stolen election,' a prelude to what happened in early 2021," referring to the riots at the U.S. Capitol fueled by Trump's unsubstantiated claims.
After joining the race this month, LePage unveiled a new stolen election accusation, claiming without evidence on WVOM radio that his decisive 2022 loss to Democratic Gov. Janet Mills was because "it was bought (and) we had noncitizens and the undocumented voting." Noncitizens are not allowed to vote in Maine.
Trump is expected to loom large over this election, just like last year, when Golden refused to endorse President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris. Golden also wrote an op-ed predicting a Trump victory, saying "I'm OK with that," downplaying concerns that his reelection would lead to the downfall of democracy.
LePage, who during his unsuccessful 2022 bid for governor ran as a more toned-down version of the firebrand governor the nation came to know, has fully embraced Trump and his first few months in office during his recent radio interviews.
"I have a similar style that the president has," LePage told conservative radio host Howie Carr. "Actually, I think I like his style this time around. This time around, he's really busting down the doors. He's had four years, so he knows where the bodies are buried and he is uncovering him. I'm telling ya, I'm so proud of him right now. I think President Trump is doing a phenomenal job."
Just this week, LePage told WGAN Newsradio that he would work closely to execute Trump's agenda, promising to "get an audience with the president if need be." He embraced the "big, beautiful" budget bill advanced by House Republicans, saying "it's so important to this country," even though the bill is projected to add $5 trillion to the national deficit and LePage has raised concerns over the deficit.
That budget bill was condemned by Golden as "reckless," citing the proposed cuts to Medicaid.
Republicans, Golden said in a written statement, are "ramming through an extreme agenda that takes health care away from the working poor and borrows trillions of dollars to fund a package of tax cuts tilted in favor of those at the top."
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