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More roof leaks and power cuts? World Bank says climate change will hit homes hard

More roof leaks and power cuts? World Bank says climate change will hit homes hard

Time of India5 days ago

More than 60% of households and firms across South Asia have experienced extreme weather events in the past five years. This is the stark finding from a new World Bank report titled From Risk to Resilience: Helping People and Firms Adapt in South Asia. The report warns that the situation will worsen, with over 75% expecting severe weather to affect them in the coming decade.
South Asia is confronting rising threats from intense heat and flooding. Nearly 90% of the population is projected to face extreme heat by 2030, and more than one in five people are at risk of severe flooding. The report signals a critical need for stronger climate adaptation.
Private sector key to reducing climate damage
The World Bank points out that much of the effort to adapt to these growing climate risks must come from the private sector. Governments, with limited budgets, cannot meet the challenge alone.
In a press release, the World Bank stated, "More than 60 per cent of households and firms have experienced extreme weather in the last five years, and more than 75 per cent expect it for the next decade. Many households and businesses are already taking steps to adapt to climate risks."
Around 80% of households and 63% of firms have taken some adaptation measures, but these are often basic actions—like raising house foundations or installing fans. More advanced options, such as planting climate-resilient seeds or relocating from high-risk areas, are less common.
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The report notes that market barriers and income constraints hold back stronger adaptation. Households with better education or access to formal finance are more likely to adopt advanced strategies. Similarly, better-managed companies face fewer regulatory obstacles and are more adaptable.
Franziska Ohnsorge, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia, said, "Private sector adaptation could reduce one third of the region's projected climate damage, but this requires governments to strengthen enabling environments."
She added, "Adaptation is most effective when markets function well and when essential services like transport, water, healthcare, and digital connectivity are widely accessible."
Governments must act to support adaptation
The report calls for governments to act swiftly to remove barriers limiting adaptation. Martin Raiser, World Bank Vice President for South Asia, stated, "The urgency is growing. People and firms are already adapting, but they are doing so with limited tools and few resources."
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He urged governments to focus on removing distortions in land and labour markets, expanding access to finance, and investing in public infrastructure that supports climate resilience.
Local examples offer hope. Cities like Ahmedabad are leading with heat action plans to protect residents from rising temperatures. These demonstrate how targeted investments and strong institutions can boost local adaptation efforts.
The report recommends policies based on three principles:
Implement comprehensive adaptation measures.
Prioritise solutions supporting both development and climate resilience.
Align adaptation strategies with long-term development goals to ensure lasting progress.
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Global temperature forecasts signal continued risk
Parallel to the World Bank's findings, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a report forecasting record-high global temperatures over the next five years. The WMO predicts an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the current record set in 2024.
There is also an 86% chance that at least one of these years will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average (1850–1900). The five-year average temperature between 2025 and 2029 is likely to exceed 1.5°C warming, a sharp increase in risk compared to previous forecasts.
WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said, 'We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.'
The report highlights the Arctic warming at more than three and a half times the global average, continuing reductions in sea ice, and varied regional precipitation patterns—wetter conditions in northern Europe and Siberia, drier conditions in the Amazon.
Rising heatwaves and floods demand urgent action
These warming trends will bring more heatwaves, intense rainfall, droughts, melting ice sheets, and rising sea levels. Every fraction of a degree increase heightens these risks.
The WMO stresses that monitoring and climate prediction remain essential tools to help policymakers and communities prepare for these impacts.
South Asia, already grappling with flooding and heat, must accelerate its adaptation efforts. The World Bank report stresses that combining policy reforms, private sector action, and stronger government support offers the best chance to reduce future damage and build resilience.
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Vijay L Bhambwani's Ticker: Retail traders getting into overdrive
Vijay L Bhambwani's Ticker: Retail traders getting into overdrive

Mint

timean hour ago

  • Mint

Vijay L Bhambwani's Ticker: Retail traders getting into overdrive

Last week, I analysed statistical data and wrote that retail traders were getting more aggressive. That aggression not only continued, but retail traders stepped on the gas to go into overdrive. As per the last data available on NSE's website at the time of writing this piece, retail traders bought the highest number of shares with a margin-funded facility. Clearly, there is a sense of urgency in this buying because they are resorting to borrowing when their own capital is falling short. I have repeatedly warned you from many quarters that high leverage and statistical ßeta (pure price volatility) go hand in hand. Also note that I have written about how calendar 2025 marks the onset of procyclicality in financial markets. This economic phenomenon occurs after prolonged periods of time when asset prices and the economic outlook diverge. Mean reversion is triggered, and asset prices align with economic data. High volatility is a direct result. Brace up for a challenging but profitable ride ahead. Last week, I wrote that the banking and financial sector stocks would be buoyant ahead of the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) announcement on interest rates. That hypothesis was validated by the markets. Also, remember this sector commands a weightage of over 37% in the Nifty 50. The announcement of the government being open to foreign buyers as major holders in Indian banks boosted banking stocks further. Which means it was banking that boosted markets higher. This optimism may spill over to this week as well. I had also written that the interest rate cut of over 0.25% would be a negative development for cash carry trade. That RBI cut the rate by 0.50% tells me markets saw a short-covering-based rally. There is a good probability of profit-taking setting in the weeks ahead. Rising oil and gas prices can trigger volatility in oil marketing companies (OMCs) stocks. Fears of higher inflation can return in the near term unless energy prices fall. The rise is due to geopolitical concerns, and the energy markets remain well supplied. Bullion saw a sterling week as gold and silver rallied sharply. I maintain my view that my readers should look beyond 2025 and stick to delivery holdings rather than pay cost-of-carry (financing charges) that futures & options (F&O) buyers have to incur. All big declines will be bought into by institutional players, so the long-term story remains intact. My readers can refer to my video wherein I have explained how to buy purest bullion at honest-to-God prices, conduct fool-proof checks for purity electronically and negotiate buyback prices. Industrial metals are witnessing some buying, but resistance at higher levels continues to cap gains. Much of the price rise is due to tariffs rather than anticipated demand hikes. That means metal mining companies' stocks may rise due to rate cuts, but the rally may be calibrated. Public sector undertakings (PSUs) will continue to attract trader attention as newsflow is positive for this segment of the market. Fixed income investors should keep the powder dry for better rates. Continue to trade light with stop losses and tail risk hedges. A tutorial video on tail risk (Hacienda) hedges is here. Let us assess last week's happenings to gauge what to expect in the coming week. Due to their sheer weightage, banking stocks led the rally. A weak US dollar boosted haven buying in bullion and energy commodities, too. The rupee weakened mildly against the dollar, capping the gains in our markets. Watch the USDINR carefully this week. Indian 10-year bond yield rose mildly, which means bond prices fell mildly. Barring this, banking stocks would have risen even higher. Market capitalisation of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) rose 1.59%, which means the rally was broad-based. Market-wide position limits (MWPL) rose routinely along expected lines. US headline indices rose and provided tail winds to our markets. Change in asset prices Retail risk appetite—I use a simple yet highly accurate yardstick for measuring the conviction levels of retail traders—where are they deploying money. I measure what percentage of the turnover was contributed by the lower and higher risk instruments. If they trade more of futures, which require sizable capital, their risk appetite is higher. Within the futures space, index futures are less volatile compared to stock futures. A higher footprint in stock futures shows higher aggression levels. Ditto for stock and index options. Last week, this is what their footprint looked like (the numbers are the average of all trading days of the week) – The capital-intensive, high-risk futures segment saw lower turnover contribution as higher volatility kept traders at bay. In the lower capital and lower volatility options segment, the index options saw the turnover contribution rise. This segment is the least capital-intensive and the least volatile. That tells me retail risk appetite in the leveraged segment fell off a cliff. NSE F&O Component Turnover Breakdown Let us peel layer after layer of statistical data to arrive at the core message of the markets. The first chart I share is the NSE advance-decline ratio. After the price itself, this indicator is the fastest (leading) indicator of which way the winds are blowing. This simple yet accurate indicator computes the ratio of rising to falling stocks. As long as the stocks that are gaining outnumber the losers, bulls are dominant. This metric gauges the risk appetite of one marshmallow traders. These are pure intraday traders. The Nifty notched up gains last week, and the advance-decline ratio followed suit. At 1.15 (prior week 1.05), it indicates there were 115 gainers for every 100 losers. Intraday traders showed improved buying conviction, and as long as this ratio stays above 1.0 this week, bulls will remain in charge. A tutorial video on the Marshmallow theory in trading is here. NSE Advance-Decline Ratio The second chart I share is the market-wide position limits. This measures the amount of exposure utilised by traders in the derivatives (F&O) space as a component of the total exposure allowed by the regulator. This metric gauges the risk appetite of two marshmallow traders. These are deep-pocketed, high-conviction traders who roll over their trades to the next session. The MWPL reading rose along routine lines after a post-expiry dip. What is noteworthy is the increase to 31.24% in the first week after expiry. This level is the highest after the commensurate week post expiry of the January 2025 series. Do note that the derivatives list has seen sizable new stock additions, which means the absolute amounts invested by swing traders are sharply higher. This is more evidence that the retail segment is going into overdrive. Higher greed may lead to crowded exits if the news flow turns adverse. Do remember, volatility is on the rise already. Keep looking over your shoulder and maintain tail risk hedges. A dedicated tutorial video on how to interpret MWPL data in more ways than one is available here. Market-Wide Position Limits The third chart I share is my in-house indicator, 'impetus.' It measures the force in any price move. Last week, we saw the Bank Nifty lead the rally, but the impetus reading fell. The Nifty 50 rallied with mildly higher impetus readings, which tells me the upthrust was more due to short covering than fresh buying. Ideally, the price and impetus readings must rise in tandem to indicate a sustainable rally in the markets. Nifty and Bank Nifty Impetus The final chart I share is my in-house indicator 'LWTD.' It computes lift, weight, thrust and drag encountered by any security. These are four forces that any powered aircraft faces during flight, so applying them to traded securities helps a trader estimate prevalent sentiments. Last week, the Nifty rose, but the LWTD reading dove from 0.11 to -0.21. That tells me the rally was more due to short covering, and fresh buying may have been limited. Ideally, prices and LWTD readings must rise together to indicate a sustainable rally. A tutorial video on interpreting the LWTD indicator is here. Nifty and LWTD Indicator The weekly chart shows a bullish candle with a bigger body than the prior week's candle. The last bullish candle's body also engulfs the prior week's bearish candle body, which is called a bullish engulfing pattern. It indicates the dominance of bulls over bears. Last week, I suggested a 25,250 level as a last-mile hurdle that bulls had to overcome before pushing markets higher. That level remained inviolate. The 25,250 remains a hurdle to watch this week. The price is above the 25-week moving average, which is a proxy for the six-month holding cost of an average retail investor. That means the medium-term outlook is positive. The 24,500 level is a support that bulls must defend in case of declines. Failing which further declines may occur. Nifty Spot Your call to action – Watch the 25,250 level as a near-term resistance. Staying above this level strengthens bulls. Last week, I estimated ranges between 57,400 – 54,100 and 25,475 – 24,025 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty, respectively. Both indices traded within their specified resistance levels. This week, I estimate ranges between 58,200 – 54,950 and 25,725 – 24,300 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty, respectively. Trade light with strict stop losses. Avoid trading counters with spreads wider than 8 ticks. Vijay is the CEO a proprietary trading firm. He tweets at @vijaybhambwani

Stocks to trade today: Trade Brains Portal recommends two stocks for 9 June
Stocks to trade today: Trade Brains Portal recommends two stocks for 9 June

Mint

timean hour ago

  • Mint

Stocks to trade today: Trade Brains Portal recommends two stocks for 9 June

Stock market today: Indian equities ended Friday with stellar gains after the RBI delivered a double bonanza—a surprise 50 basis point cut in the repo rate and a 100 basis point reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR)—raising hopes of stronger credit demand and a rebound in domestic growth. The Nifty 50 rose 252 points, or 1.02%, to close at 25,003, while the Sensex gained 443 points, or 1%, to end at 82,188. The move came as a surprise at a time when markets had been losing steam, with the Nifty slipping over the past two weeks amid concerns over stretched valuations and global trade uncertainty. Rate-sensitive sectors—led by real estate, financials, and auto—rallied sharply, while optimism around an above-normal monsoon lifted FMCG stocks. Against this backdrop, Trade Brains Portal has picked two stocks—one from the financial services sector and another from the metals and mining sector. Stocks to trade today, recommended by Trade Brains Portal for 9 June: REC Ltd Current price: ₹414 Target price: ₹520 (12 months) Stop-loss: ₹360 Why is REC recommended: Rural Electrification Corp. Ltd (REC Ltd), a leading 'Maharatna' company, is registered as a non-banking financial company (NBFC), public financial institution (PFI), and infrastructure financing company (IFC). REC provides financing across the power infrastructure spectrum—including generation, transmission, distribution, and renewables—as well as for emerging technologies such as electric vehicles, battery and pump storage, green hydrogen, and green ammonia projects. The company has also diversified into non-power infrastructure sectors, including roads and expressways, metro rail, airports, IT and communications, social and commercial infrastructure (such as hospitals and educational institutions), ports, and electro-mechanical (E&M) projects across sectors like steel and refineries. In FY25, REC's disbursements rose 18% year-on-year to ₹1,91,185 crore, up from ₹1,61,462 crore in FY24. It reported its highest-ever loan book at ₹5.67 lakh crore, an 11% YoY increase, and record net profit of ₹15,713 crore, up 12% YoY. Net interest income rose 27% to ₹19,878 crore, while total income increased 19% YoY to ₹55,980 crore. The company's asset quality continues to improve. Earnings per share for FY25 stood at ₹59.55, with total dividends of ₹18 per share, marking a 180% rise. REC's net interest margin improved by 6 basis points YoY to 3.63% in FY25 and is projected to remain in the 3.5–3.75% range for FY26. It aims to disburse ₹2–2.1 lakh crore in FY26 and reach a loan book of ₹10 lakh crore by FY30, targeting a 12% CAGR. Prepayments are expected to remain at around ₹1 lakh crore annually. Over the next 2–3 years, transmission and smart metering projects are expected to provide ₹1.1 lakh crore in new opportunities, with 11 crore smart meters alone representing a ₹45,000–50,000 crore opportunity. REC currently holds a book value of ₹58,000 crore and aims to disburse ₹3 lakh crore in renewables by 2030. Its five-year Revolving Bill Payment Facility targets disbursements of ₹80,000–90,000 crore in FY26. EPC contracts have been completed, and payment flows are expected to pick up in FY26. Risk factors: The company is exposed to financially weak clients, particularly state power utilities. It also faces client concentration risk, with 36% of its loan book concentrated as of 31 December 2024. Additionally, REC is susceptible to technological shifts, regulatory changes, and evolving customer behavior. Read this | For steel companies, Q4 was an inflexion point as prices, demand firm up Hindustan Zinc Ltd Current price: ₹502 Target price: ₹630 (12 months) Stop-loss: ₹438 Why is Hindustan Zinc recommended: Founded in 1966 and part of the Vedanta group, Hindustan Zinc Ltd is the world's largest integrated zinc producer and among the top five global silver producers. The company supplies to over 40 countries and commands a dominant 77% share of India's primary zinc market. With a mine life exceeding 25 years, it holds reserves and resources (R&R) of 453.2 million tonnes, with an average zinc-lead grade of 6.5%. It also launched EcoZen, Asia's first low-carbon 'green' zinc brand. In FY25, the company recorded its highest-ever mined metal production at 1,095 kt and refined metal output at 1,052 kt. Domestic zinc sales reached a record 603 kt, reinforcing its leading market position. Metal reserves exceeded 13.1 Mt (net of 1.2 Mt production), and total metal R&R now stands at 29.6 Mt. Hindustan Zinc posted robust financials in FY25, with revenue rising 18% YoY to ₹34,083 crore, up from ₹28,932 crore in FY24. EBITDA grew 28% YoY to ₹17,465 crore, reflecting an industry-leading margin of 51%. Profit after tax (PAT) stood at ₹10,353 crore, up 33% from ₹7,759 crore in FY24. Free cash flow from operations (pre-capex) reached ₹13,784 crore, and return on capital employed hit a record 58%. With a well-defined capex plan, the company expects to sustain strong performance in FY26. Mine metal production is targeted at 1.125 million tonnes, with refined metal production at 1.1 million tonnes. Refined silver output is projected between 700 and 710 tonnes, while zinc production costs are expected to range between $1,025 and $1,050 per tonne. Approved growth capex projects are expected to require $225–250 million. The company also plans to commission its Roaster project in Q1 FY26, which will process 160,000 tonnes of zinc ore annually. Risk factors: Hindustan Zinc is exposed to the cyclical nature of demand in the galvanized steel industry, which accounts for 70% of zinc consumption in India. As a capital goods-oriented business, it is heavily reliant on end-user industries such as automotive, consumer durables, batteries, home appliances, construction, and infrastructure. Zinc also faces substitution risk from metals like aluminium and other alloys. Additionally, the company faces regulatory and geographic concentration risks, with most of its production located in Rajasthan. Read this | These three large-cap stocks are trouncing the Sensex in 2025—so far Stock market recap: 6 June Indian equities staged a strong rebound on Friday, buoyed by the Reserve Bank of India's surprise 50 basis point cut in the repo rate to 5.50% and a shift in policy stance to 'neutral.' The move sparked optimism around credit demand and economic recovery, triggering broad-based buying across consumption-driven and growth-oriented sectors. Infrastructure & Realty, NBFCs & Finance, and Metal stocks were among the top gainers. The Nifty 50 rose 252.15 points, or 1.02%, opening above its 20-day EMA at 24,748.70, hitting an intraday high of 25,029.50, and settling at 25,003.05. The BSE Sensex mirrored this strength, opening at 81,434.24 and closing at 82,188.99, up 746.95 points or 0.92%. Both indices stayed comfortably above their 20/50/100/200 EMAs on the daily chart, with RSI levels at 59.98 for the Nifty and 59.27 for the Sensex—well below the overbought threshold of 70. Banking stocks rallied, with the Nifty Bank index hitting a record high of 56,695 before closing at 56,578.40, up 1.47%. The Nifty Private Bank index jumped 1.79% to 27,832.50, buoyed by expectations of improved liquidity and credit flow, particularly to MSMEs and retail borrowers. IDFC First Bank surged 7.11%, RBL Bank gained 5.19%, Bandhan Bank rose 4.01%, and Axis Bank added 3.07%. The Nifty Realty index was Friday's standout performer, climbing 4.68% to 1,039.60 and reclaiming the 1,000 mark for the first time in six months. Real estate majors like DLF and Godrej Properties surged over 6%, driven by expectations of lower EMIs boosting demand—particularly in the EWS and LIG housing segments. Metal stocks also saw strong traction, with the Nifty Metal index rising 1.9%. JSW Steel gained 3.73%, while NALCO and Jindal Stainless each advanced more than 3%. The Nifty Finance index climbed 1.75%, led by ICICI Lombard (up 6.85%), Muthoot Finance (6.61%), and Shriram Finance (5.65%). Media stocks bucked the trend, with the Nifty Media index slipping 1.14% to 1,705.75. Among the top laggards were Tips Industries (-2.75%), Dish TV India (-2.08%), and PVR Inox (-1.85%). Also read | United Spirits is on a high after RCB's IPL win, JP Morgan upgrade and UK FTA. Can it keep buzzing? Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite inched up 0.04%, and the Nikkei 225 gained 0.5%, while the Hang Seng fell 0.48% to 23,792.54 and the Shenzhen Component declined by 0.19%. In the US, Dow Jones Futures were up 0.34%, or 142 points, suggesting a positive open. Trade Brains Portal is a stock analysis platform. Its trade name is Dailyraven Technologies Pvt. Ltd, and its Sebi-registered research analyst registration number is INH000015729. Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

US market outlook: Indian market recovery driven by govt spending & rural demand: Gokul Laroia, Morgan Stanley
US market outlook: Indian market recovery driven by govt spending & rural demand: Gokul Laroia, Morgan Stanley

Economic Times

timean hour ago

  • Economic Times

US market outlook: Indian market recovery driven by govt spending & rural demand: Gokul Laroia, Morgan Stanley

Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The recovery in Indian markets is entirely a function of the revival of government spending and rebound in rural demand, said Gokul Laroia, CEO Asia and co-head of global equities, Morgan Stanley . In an interview with Nishanth Vasudevan, Laroia spoke about US markets, the dollar and Indian IPOs, among other topics. Edited excerpts:We're positive on the US market because I think all the growth-unfriendly or market-unfriendly actions were taken first. The growth-friendly actions like tax bill, deregulation and financial conditions easing are now coming. And, earnings revisions in the US appear to have bottomed out and, in fact, are now inflecting and becoming more view on the US market continues to be pretty constructive. Now, all of this comes with a caveat. If you don't get a resolution to a lot of the more complicated trade situations, like those with the EU or China, that's obviously going to remain a headwind-and a persistent one. Which is why I tend to feel that the deal with India is actually more India, the market recovery is entirely a function of the revival of government spending and rebound in rural demand. Even if you don't see 7.5% persist, but say, 6.5% real GDP growth and 10-10.5% nominal-that'll provide a lot of support to the markets. Because that'll translate into mid-teen earnings growth and mid-teens ROE.A lot of people actually question the "Multiple India" trade. They say it's expensive, etc. And yes, it's expensive relative to where other markets are trading. But show me a market outside of the US that has high earnings growth, high return on equity, and low volatility. The US trades at 21-22 times earnings too. India trades at 21-22 times earnings. You could argue that the growth rates in India are higher but then the cost of capital in India is also six to eight months, the view was very cautious because of the slowdown in the macro, and earnings disappointment. Some capital was reallocated to China tech after DeepSeek, some capital went to Europe because there was this notion of fiscal expansion in Europe out of Germany. I think that's inflected. The global guys, or at least the classic long-only global guys, tend to be value-conscious. There's a view that India is expensive as a market. But honestly, for as long as I've been doing this, I can't think of a time when India hasn't been expensive as a market. But it continues to perform as a market because I think you've got to think about value in the context of earnings growth, returns on equity, low beta and macro variables. You get that package at 21 times earnings, not at 12 times is going to slow in the US. So a combination of what was actually supporting the dollar is now not going to be there. Our view is that the dollar continues to weaken for the foreseeable future. This year it's down against a basket of major trading partners by about 7-8%. We're of the view that it probably drops by an equivalent amount over the course of the next year or has a whole variety of factors at play. The most important one is the assessment of the US fiscal deficit. And, this tax bill is going to be growth accretive, but the concern that it's creating is that the deficit stays close to 7%. And a 7% deficit will mean that the US government is going to have to borrow a lot. And if the US government has to borrow a lot, then what happens to yields is a big question. Particularly as the traditional buyers of US Treasuries-Japan, China, perhaps even the EU-are perhaps not going to be as big as they were in the past.A little bit of it has happened. But if you think about it in the context of the amount of money that went into the US over the last 10 years versus the amount of money that's actually come out. It's very, very small. And the number one reason for that is that there is no market in the world that gives you the kind of scale the US market to do that in meaningful way is limited, just given scale and depth of markets relative to scale and depth of US. Historically, when the dollar weakened, money flowed into emerging markets. Can that happen again? Money has flown out of the US to emerging markets. But at the margin. Emerging markets can't absorb that much money. I mean, the amount of foreign capital that over the last 10 years has gone into the US—forget the underlying asset class—is over $10 trillion. If a few hundred billion moves into EMs, that'll have a real impact on emerging markets. The point I'm trying to make is that this (outflows) will be a small percentage of what came in, because the rest of the world does not have the ability to absorb that kind of capital. That places the US in a pretty special position. In India, there's a flood of paper (IPOs, promoters selling) in the best thing for Indian market is more paper coming, more liquidity getting generated as a result of paper, and more asset managers trading these markets more actively. If there's too much paper, it has a near-term impact.

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