Latest news with #WMO
Yahoo
11 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How Soon Should Companies Prepare for a 2°C World?
A billboard shows the current temperature over 100 degrees in June 2024 in Phoenix. Credit - Photo byLook through the new five-year outlook from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and you won't see the U.N. atmospheric science body use the words 'emergency' or 'disaster.' And yet it would be hard for anyone even semi-literate in the science of climate change to flip through it without a sense of urgency and alarm. The report, released earlier this week, finds that global temperatures will continue at or near record levels with a possibility that the temperature-rise since the Industrial Revolution nears 2°C by 2030. Already, warming momentarily breached 1.5°C of warming in 2024. It's a big marker: decades ago policymakers settled on 2°C as an ideal cap of sorts. That's because, at some point between 1.5°C and 2°C, we might expect to begin seeing climate effects that are both dire and, perhaps more importantly, irreversible. The WMO report reaffirms that the world has entered that danger zone—and the risks posed by the planet's warming are on the verge of growing dramatically. The increasingly dire atmospheric reality, underscored by this new report, might lead to some urgent calls for companies to cut their emissions. Indeed, reducing emissions is the only way to keep the problem from getting worse. But our temperature-rise trajectory should also push companies to take a hard look at how prepared they are for the changes that will come on the road to 2°C—not decades from now but in the next five years. 'We are in a climate emergency, and the situation worsens every year,' Sonia I. Seneviratne, a professor at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science of the ETH Zurich, told me earlier this year. 'It's not necessarily making the headlines, because there are also many other crises, but we shouldn't forget it.' The WMO report outlines a number of alarming predictions for the next half-decade. For the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere, temperatures are expected to exceed averages in previous decades 'almost everywhere.' In the Arctic during the Northern winter season, the warming is expected to be particularly extreme, with the temperature anomaly more than 3.5 times as large as the global anomaly. And sea ice is expected to continue to decline across the Arctic. Perhaps more importantly, and left uncovered by the report, are the second-order effects of a warmer planet. Between 1.5°C and 2°C, heat waves become more frequent and intense, according to the U.N.'s climate science body. Crop yields decline. And coral reefs may be wiped out completely. This spells trouble for a wide range of companies. Infrastructure faces increased flood and fire risk. Demand for air conditioning will stretch electric utilities thin. Farmers and agriculture companies not only face crop losses but also declining worker productivity in the heat and other extreme weather. All of this adds up to a massive headwind poised to slow economic growth. A 2021 report from Swiss reinsurance giant Swiss Re found that 2°C of warming would lead to global GDP that is 11% lower by the mid-century. Don't get me wrong. Sophisticated companies are aware of the challenges on the horizon. Research has shown that a growing number of firms are disclosing the risks posed to their business by the physical effects of climate change. Nonetheless, many companies are still early in grappling with these challenges. Few are able to quantify the risk in financial terms and most lack comprehensive plans to even for the most forward-thinking firms, the problem with this new atmosphere in which we find ourselves is that it's impossible to fully understand what destruction these hotter temperatures will bring—and, therefore, what can be done to prepare. With each fraction of a degree that global temperatures rise, the further we get into uncharted territory that stretches our scientific analysis. Climate deniers use uncertainty to argue that we should slow our efforts to reduce emissions: why should we spend trillions to address something we don't fully understand? But the truth is that the present uncertainty is far scarier than even potentially hyperbolic messaging about climate change ending the world. The new climate reality means we can expect a variety of extreme weather events, seemingly unpredictably. Over the next half-decade, we will get a good sense of who has prepared effectively. To get this story in your inbox, subscribe to the TIME CO2 Leadership Report newsletter here. Write to Justin Worland at
Time Magazine
11 hours ago
- Science
- Time Magazine
How Soon Should Companies Prepare for a 2°C World?
Look through the new five-year outlook from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and you won't see the U.N. atmospheric science body use the words 'emergency' or 'disaster.' And yet it would be hard for anyone even semi-literate in the science of climate change to flip through it without a sense of urgency and alarm. The report, released earlier this week, finds that global temperatures will continue at or near record levels with a possibility that the temperature-rise since the Industrial Revolution nears 2°C by 2030. Already, warming momentarily breached 1.5°C of warming in 2024. It's a big marker: decades ago policymakers settled on 2°C as an ideal cap of sorts. That's because, at some point between 1.5°C and 2°C, we might expect to begin seeing climate effects that are both dire and, perhaps more importantly, irreversible. The WMO report reaffirms that the world has entered that danger zone—and the risks posed by the planet's warming are on the verge of growing dramatically. The increasingly dire atmospheric reality, underscored by this new report, might lead to some urgent calls for companies to cut their emissions. Indeed, reducing emissions is the only way to keep the problem from getting worse. But our temperature-rise trajectory should also push companies to take a hard look at how prepared they are for the changes that will come on the road to 2°C—not decades from now but in the next five years. 'We are in a climate emergency, and the situation worsens every year,' Sonia I. Seneviratne, a professor at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science of the ETH Zurich, told me earlier this year. 'It's not necessarily making the headlines, because there are also many other crises, but we shouldn't forget it.' The WMO report outlines a number of alarming predictions for the next half-decade. For the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere, temperatures are expected to exceed averages in previous decades 'almost everywhere.' In the Arctic during the Northern winter season, the warming is expected to be particularly extreme, with the temperature anomaly more than 3.5 times as large as the global anomaly. And sea ice is expected to continue to decline across the Arctic. Perhaps more importantly, and left uncovered by the report, are the second-order effects of a warmer planet. Between 1.5°C and 2°C, heat waves become more frequent and intense, according to the U.N.'s climate science body. Crop yields decline. And coral reefs may be wiped out completely. This spells trouble for a wide range of companies. Infrastructure faces increased flood and fire risk. Demand for air conditioning will stretch electric utilities thin. Farmers and agriculture companies not only face crop losses but also declining worker productivity in the heat and other extreme weather. All of this adds up to a massive headwind poised to slow economic growth. A 2021 report from Swiss reinsurance giant Swiss Re found that 2°C of warming would lead to global GDP that is 11% lower by the mid-century. Don't get me wrong. Sophisticated companies are aware of the challenges on the horizon. Research has shown that a growing number of firms are disclosing the risks posed to their business by the physical effects of climate change. Nonetheless, many companies are still early in grappling with these challenges. Few are able to quantify the risk in financial terms and most lack comprehensive plans to prepare. And, even for the most forward-thinking firms, the problem with this new atmosphere in which we find ourselves is that it's impossible to fully understand what destruction these hotter temperatures will bring—and, therefore, what can be done to prepare. With each fraction of a degree that global temperatures rise, the further we get into uncharted territory that stretches our scientific analysis. Climate deniers use uncertainty to argue that we should slow our efforts to reduce emissions: why should we spend trillions to address something we don't fully understand? But the truth is that the present uncertainty is far scarier than even potentially hyperbolic messaging about climate change ending the world. The new climate reality means we can expect a variety of extreme weather events, seemingly unpredictably. Over the next half-decade, we will get a good sense of who has prepared effectively.
Axios
19 hours ago
- Climate
- Axios
These names could be remembered for all the wrong reasons
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season starts Sunday, and there's a new list of storm names. Why it matters: A single name on this list could define the season if it's tied to a major disaster. The big picture: The World Meteorological Organization picks the names, which are based on "their familiarity to people" in the region. The lists are reused every six years, with this batch last used in 2019. Dexter is a new addition this year, replacing Dorian, which was retired after the 2019 storm that devastated the Bahamas. Systems are named when they strengthen to at least a tropical storm. The names are: Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy Between the lines: If all the names are used, WMO uses a supplemental list. It previously used the Greek alphabet, but they ended that practice after confusion during the 2020 season. Names are retired if they are associated with a particularly deadly or costly storm. For instance, the names Beryl, Milton and Helene were retired after the 2024 hurricane season. Flashback: Storms weren't named until 1953. Before then, they were tracked by the year and order they occurred that year, according to NOAA. At first, only female names were used. In 1979, male names were added to the mix for storms in the Atlantic basin. What's next: Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through Nov. 30, but storms can form any time.
The Herald Scotland
a day ago
- Climate
- The Herald Scotland
Brace for years of extreme heat, UN climate report warns
"We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett, in a statement. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet." Arctic warming is also predicted to rise at more than three times the global average. "Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels," the WMO said in a statement. Climate report by the numbers 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record 86% chance that at least one of next five years will be more than 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) above the 1850-1900 average 70% chance that 5-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F). Arctic warming predicted to continue to outstrip global average More people at risk Last year, the hottest year on record, saw the first breach of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which committed countries to avoid global warming of more than 1.5 degrees C. From this year until the end of 2029, the mean near-surface temperature globally is forecast to be between 1.2 degrees C and 1.9 degrees C (2.2 degrees F and 3.4 degrees F) higher than pre-industrial levels of the years 1850-1900, the WMO said, adding that this would fuel more extreme weather. "With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5 degrees C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat," Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter, told the Associated Press. "Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape." Arctic warmth is soaring In the Arctic, the above-average projected warming will accelerate ice melt in the Arctic and northwest Pacific Ocean. The report said Arctic warming was predicted to be more than three-and-a-half times the global average, at 2.4 degrees C (4.3 degrees F) above the recent average temperature over the next five winters. Contributing: Reuters
Yahoo
a day ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Earth's 5-year forecast is in: Brace for extreme heat
Human-caused global warming will continue to bake the Earth over the next several years, experts from the United Nations and the United Kingdom said in a May 28 report, noting that "global climate predictions show temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years." Specifically, there is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will see record heat, with a high likelihood that average warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, according to the report by the World Meteorological Organization, which is the U.N. weather agency, and the U.K. Met Office. 'We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett, in a statement. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.' Arctic warming is also predicted to rise at more than three times the global average. "Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels," the WMO said in a statement. 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record. 86% chance that at least one of next five years will be more than 1.5 C (2.7 F) above the 1850-1900 average. 70% chance that five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 C (2.7 F). Arctic warming predicted to continue to outstrip global average. Last year, the hottest year on record, saw the first breach of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which committed countries to avoid global warming of more than 1.5 C. From this year until the end of 2029, the mean near-surface temperature globally is forecast to be between 1.2 C and 1.9 C (2.2 F and 3.4 F) higher than preindustrial levels of the years 1850-1900, the WMO said, adding that this would fuel more extreme weather. 'With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5 degrees C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat," Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter, told The Associated Press. "Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape." In the Arctic, the above-average projected warming will accelerate ice melt in the Arctic and northwest Pacific Ocean. The report said Arctic warming was predicted to be more than 3½ times the global average, at 2.4 C (4.3 F) above the recent average temperature over the next five winters. Contributing: Reuters This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Brace for years of extreme heat, UN climate report warns
