Tariff? Long arm of Trump law may not pluck Apple off India

Economic Times

24-05-2025

US President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to impose 'at least' 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the country unless they are made in America, and 'not in India, or anyplace else'. The development, which came a week after he said he had told Apple CEO Tim Cook not to build in India, could dampen the fast-paced growth of India's electronics manufacturing services, said experts.
Apple shares plunged more than 4% to a low of $193.46 on the Nasdaq after Trump's statement.
'I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhones that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the US,' Trump said in a post on Truth Social.The move, if implemented, would hit the Cupertino-based firm, which has been seeking to diversify its production base beyond China, as well as India's electronics manufacturing services ecosystem, which has been supporting not only phone manufacturers but also hundreds of ancillary and downstream component makers beginning to set up shop in the country, according to experts.
Shifting Apple's manufacturing to the US would not be a feasible solution, though, they said, since that would increase the cost of the iPhone to $3,000 on average from the current price of around $1000 owing to the high cost of labour in the US.
Most of the iPhones sold in the US currently are made in India. Apple's assembly lines in India churned out smartphones worth $22 billion in 2024-25, with a 60% year-on-year increase in output.
Some experts also said that Trump's statement appeared to be a negotiation tactic to secure a more favourable trade deal with India.'Trump's posturing of a potential 25% tariff on 'Made in India' Apple phones will certainly be a dampener on Apple's India plans,' said Jaijit Bhattacharya, president, Centre for Digital Economy Policy Research. 'It brings in regulatory uncertainty for Apple, which in itself is extremely detrimental. Apple was signalled to move out of China into trusted supply chain locations such as India. As it started ramping up in India, conflicting signals have emerged from the US administration.'He said the outcome would be significant uncertainty for Apple, impacting the company's ability to build a resilient supply chain and serve the market.Anurag Agrawal, founder of Techaisle, said, 'Trump's past actions indicate a willingness to impose tariffs to push for domestic production, and his recent comments suggest he is not pleased with Apple's move to diversify manufacturing to India. Therefore, some form of targeted tariffs remains a possibility. While Trump can impose tariffs, previous threats have often been used as negotiating tactics, and exemptions for electronics (including iPhones) have been granted before.'A section of industry executives, however, said the US administration's move to slap tariffs on Apple would not halt India's strides in electronics manufacturing services."India is primarily involved in assembly and even within that India's piece of the pie is under $40,' said Raja Manickam, founder of the fabless chip startup iVP Semiconductor and the former CEO of Tata Electronics. 'Finally, I do see that sense will prevail and that Apple will reason with the US government that at least 50% or more of their value addition comes in from chips, IP and software by American companies.'ET's queries sent to Apple remained unanswered till press time."The notion of Apple moving iPhone assembly to the US is less a concrete strategy and more of a negotiating tool, especially in the context of US-India trade dynamics," Sanyam Chaurasia, technology market analyst at Canalys Research said. "Realistically, even if Apple were to shift assembly stateside, it would take several years and involve significant cost implications." He said Trump appears to be using Apple as a 'bargaining chip' in tariff negotiations with India. "It's more a political gesture than a realistic plan. I expect to see more of this as pressure builds to secure favorable terms in the bilateral trade agreement," he said. Apple has increasingly chosen India as an alternative to China, where it has massive operations, especially after the Covid-19 pandemic, realising that over-reliance on a single production base could put its supply chain in jeopardy. In line with growing demand, the company's suppliers such as Foxconn and Tata Electronics have been expanding their India manufacturing footprint.