Network or nuisance? Aurizon's ‘beyond coal' dream turns hot mess
Shareholders are antsy. Bulk was supposed to be his growth engine, the sizzle in a story that's otherwise focused on mature coal haulage and a monopoly coal rail network. But it hasn't worked and Aurizon's returned a miserly 2.3 per cent a year for shareholders in the past decade, including dividends, while the S&P/ASX 200 has returned 10.6 per cent.

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AU Financial Review
an hour ago
- AU Financial Review
ASX to rise, US bonds rally on rising US rate bets
Australian shares are poised to open modestly higher, with results pending from Telstra, Origin Energy, ASX and Suncorp among others. The Dow advanced while the S&P 500 hovered near its record high. US bonds rallied as traders further lifted their bets on a September rate cut. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he sees the potential for US rates to fall as much as 175 basis points, in a series of moves. The probability of a quarter point rate cut at the Fed's mid-September meeting reached 97.9 per cent according to the CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 93.9 per cent the previous day. Bessent also said he sees the agreements to allow Nvidia and AMD to sell semiconductor chips to Chinese customers, and paying the US Treasury 15 per cent of sales to do so, as a potential model for other sectors. The revenue would be used to pay down America's debt, he said. Get the daily Results Wrap newsletter during earnings season, with our Chanticleer columnists' analysis of the key results of the day. Sign up here. Market highlights ASX 200 futures are pointing up 37 points or 0.4 per cent to 8831. All US prices at 4pm New York time. Today's agenda Among the other results expected on Thursday: Temple & Webster, Abacus Storage King and Pro Medicus. Follow our reporting season coverage here. For a review of Wednesday's reporting news: Australia's July jobs report is scheduled for release at 11.30am. In a note, TD Securities said: 'We remain pessimistic on the jobs market and don't expect a strong rebound after two weak jobs report. We expect jobs growth at +12k in July. Unemployment rate is likely to stay at 4.3 per cent with the participation rate holding steady. Another weak job report may trigger speculation of consecutive rate cuts from the RBA.' Overseas, the UK and the EU are each set to report second-quarter GDP data. Policymakers meet in Norway and are expected to keep rates on hold. The US will release July PPI data and weekly initial claims: the strength, or weakness, of the labour market is seen as key to the Fed's next rate decision. Top stories Chalmers moves to phase in EV road user charge | The Albanese government is working on plans for a road user charge that would start with heavy electric vehicles. | In its final report before next week's roundtable, the Productivity Commission also urged the government to create uniform rules on AI in the care sector. | 'I think we could see it in other industries over time,' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, with the revenue going to pay down the national debt.

AU Financial Review
2 hours ago
- AU Financial Review
3 decades of market data shows one asset you have to hold
There is one clear lesson from 30 years of market data. If you weren't invested in US shares, you have potentially left more than $700,000 on the table. The S&P 500 has by far been the best performer of the six investment categories most typically used by Australian investors, according to exclusive analysis by Vanguard Australia for AFR Weekend. An investment of $100,000 in the S&P 500 made 30 years ago would now be worth $2.14 million.

Sydney Morning Herald
2 hours ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Victoria is the nation's debt dunce but the competition is hotting up
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan has previously indicated she is up for a conversation about how to broaden the tax base of states that don't have access to lucrative resource royalties. It may surprise some to learn that if you mention vertical fiscal imbalance, the premier can talk the leg off a chair. She also understands the urgency. Although a national agreement on health funding – the biggest expense items within her government's budget – commits the Commonwealth to eventually provide what the states consider a fair share, that day is still 10 years away. In the meantime, the state must find savings elsewhere or keep borrowing to make up the shortfall. This year the funding gap is $1.6 billion in a $22 billion health budget. (This column's earlier, unsolicited advice for the premier to dump her pet infrastructure project, the Suburban Rail Loop, has so far gone unheeded.) The state premiers didn't make it onto Chalmers' guest list and state/federal finances aren't on the agenda of his three-day powwow in Canberra next week. Eslake doesn't criticise these omissions from an already jam-packed roundtable program but he wonders how bad things need to get before Australia turns its mind to the thorny problem of rebalancing how money is spent and how revenue is raised across the Commonwealth. 'I think federal/state financial relations is an important issue, but I don't have a lot of company,' he laments. So, what exactly is this $900 billion elephant? According to the latest budget figures compiled by S&P Global Ratings, an international rating company that keeps a close eye on the fiscal position of the federal and state governments, this is the combined, gross debt of Australian states and territories forecast for the end of this decade. If we include the gross debt forecast to be on the federal government's own books by that stage, Australia's debt mountain will reach a $2.1 trillion base camp by June 30, 2029 along the way to a still unknown peak. Victoria, by its own budget figures, is the most indebted state in Australia. The $213 billion gross debt it has amassed as of July 1 this year represents nearly one third of the total debt currently owed by all states and territories combined. The best news for Victoria is that, in its push towards fiscal profligacy, it has some serious competition from Queensland and Tasmania. S&P lead analyst Martin Foo says while Victoria still has the weakest balance sheet of all state and territory governments, its raft of new property and payroll taxes unpopular with business has at least stabilised its fiscal position. 'We have pointed out consistently that a lot of the fiscal challenges Australia faces right now are at the state level, rather than federal level,' he says. 'Victoria has been the focus of attention for the last couple of years. Maybe it has flown under the radar a bit but some of the mid-sized and smaller states, particularly Tasmania and Queensland, are accumulating debt at a very rapid pace.' Eslake reckons his home state of Tasmania, which remains without a functioning government after two elections in the space of 15 months, already deserves Victoria's mantle as Australia's fiscal dunce. In 2019, Tasmania's gross debt was just $3.2 billion. That figure is forecast to treble this year and to increase more than six-fold from its pre-pandemic level by 2029. Loading Queensland is sharply accelerating the amount of debt it is taking on, with last year's figure of $106.6 billion forecast to nearly double by the end of the decade as the state prepares for the 2032 Olympics. Although these numbers look scarier the further you look into the future, the source of the problem is more immediate. The S&P figures show that in the last financial year, the states and territories posted a combined cash deficit of $55 billion.