July 1 morning weather update
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CBS News
an hour ago
- CBS News
Showers linger over North Texas, keeping temperatures in the low 90s
Welcome to July, North Texans! Showers and some non-severe storms moved south from Oklahoma Monday evening and lingered into Tuesday morning for areas west of I-35. As a weak frontal boundary lingers over the area, spotty showers will continue through Wednesday. The best rain chances are for areas west of I-35, and only about 20%-30%. The additional cloud cover will keep temperatures seasonal in the lower 90s on Tuesday afternoon. We will be watching for more moisture to move up from the south Thursday evening into Friday morning, keeping the low-end rain chances in the forecast. It looks like cloud cover will greet us Friday morning, with a few showers on First Alert radar, and then give way to afternoon sunshine. High pressure strengthens on Saturday and Sunday, boosting temperatures a few degrees and keeping skies brighter.
Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
How AI Will Rewrite The Rules Of Weather Probability
The probability in weather forecasts leaves many people perplexed on if, or when, they should ... More continue with plans, cancel or delay. As summer ramps up across North America, millions of travelers, vacationers and businesses that rely on weather apps for safety and scheduling are checking forecasts to decide whether to hit the beach, move the family barbecue under a tent, or adjust their operations for the day. One statement that causes perennial confusion is the 'chance of.' The forecast picture above shows a 40% chance of storms on Tuesday. But what does that mean, exactly? That it will rain 40% of the time at a specific location? Over 40% of the area? Or that four in ten meteorologists believe rain is coming? The correct answer is a bit more complex. In its standard definition, a 41% chance of precipitation means there's a 40% likelihood that measurable rain will fall at any one point in the forecast area during the forecast period. But that definition doesn't always help someone decide whether to go forward with an outdoor event or reschedule crew work. The good news is this traditional view of probability in a forecast is on the verge of a major transformation, driven by faster computing, smarter models, and the addition of AI weather models. Over the next decade, the forecast numbers we see and how we understand them are likely to become far more meaningful. How Today's Probability Forecasts Are Built Current probability of precipitation forecasts are based on a blend of weather model guidance, climatology and meteorologist expertise. Ensemble models, essentially multiple simulations of the atmosphere ran with slightly different starting conditions, also help forecasters assess the range of possible outcomes. While the percentage of model runs showing precipitation can inform the forecast, official PoP values are not a simple average of those runs. Instead, they reflect forecasters' confidence that measurable precipitation will occur at a given location and time, often using the conceptual equation PoP = confidence × areal coverage. But there are limitations. Many public-facing weather apps round these numbers or derive them from a single deterministic forecast, which could be wrong. In addition, interpretation varies by region and provider, and some forecasts still rely on simplified climatological averages blended with model output. The result is a probability number that's technically valid, but often poorly communicated and easily misinterpreted. What we don't yet have is a probability forecast that adapts to user context, reflects real-time ensemble shifts, and includes a clearly communicated explanation of what that number means for decision-making. That's about to change. The Ensemble Revolution And Faster Forecasts Ensemble forecasting has been around for years, but recent advances in technology are rapidly expanding its capabilities. With faster computing and cloud-based modeling platforms, meteorologists can now run more simulations in less time, at higher resolutions, and with greater update frequency. Organizations like NOAA, ECMWF, and leading private-sector weather companies are increasingly moving toward hourly-updating ensemble systems, offering a more detailed and responsive view of potential weather scenarios. As these ensemble models become more robust, they provide better insight not just into what might happen, but how confident forecasters are in that outcome. That unlocks a new level of precision in generating probabilities. For example, a thunderstorm probability that fluctuates hour-by-hour for a specific neighborhood, incorporating wind shear, potential energy for storms and radar trends in real time. Enter AI With Smarter, Calibrated Probabilities And Context AI is transforming how weather probabilities are calculated, and how they're communicated. Models like Microsoft's Aurora, Google's MetNet and my company DTN, combine deep learning with decades of historical and real-time data to deliver hyper-local, intelligently weighted predictions. Unlike traditional models, AI systems learn how a 40% chance of storms behaves differently in places like Florida versus Colorado, adjusting forecasts to reflect those regional and seasonal patterns. More importantly, AI is making weather data context-aware, moving beyond abstract percentages to deliver insights that matter to real-world decisions. Rather than saying there's a 30% chance of storms, tomorrow's forecasts might highlight a 55% chance that your flight could be delayed or a 60% chance an outdoor event faces a lightning disruption. As Taylor Gowan, Atmospheric Modeling and Engineering Lead at DTN, explains: 'AI allows us to move beyond one-size-fits-all forecasts. We're now calibrating probabilities to reflect not just the atmosphere, but the context, location, time of year, and what that risk means to people on the ground.' These insights extend beyond just predicting the weather. They help people make smarter, more informed decisions about how it might impact their specific plans. What Forecast Probability Might Look Like In 2040 By 2040, the familiar single-number percentage forecast may feel like a relic. Meteorologists are likely to present confidence ranges and impact-specific probabilities, such as '20–40% chance of thunderstorms with moderate certainty' or '15% chance of lightning within five miles between 3–7 p.m.' These forecasts will be dynamically generated by AI-enhanced forecast systems that continuously learn from vast datasets, recalibrating their outputs in real time based on evolving atmospheric patterns and past performance. As we enter the height of summer weather, such as extreme heat, scattered storms and muggy afternoons, the '40% chance' forecast will still appear on our screens. But behind the scenes, the technology generating that number is evolving rapidly. As ensemble modeling, AI, and hyperlocal analysis continue to advance, that number will become more accurate, and just as important, easier for users to understand what it means for that event, outdoor work and public safety.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Floods drown out Lancaster County roadways in aftermath of Monday's storms
LANCASTER COUNTY, Pa. (WHTM)– Many parts of the Midstate are still dealing with the aftermath of Monday's storms, especially in Lancaster County. Manheim Borough was severely impacted by Monday's storms, with floodwaters affecting roadways throughout the night and into Tuesday morning. Multiple crews were on scene overnight, dealing with water rescues and road closures. South Main Street and Steagle in Manheim Borough remain closed on July 1, with crews putting up barricades. Close Thanks for signing up! Watch for us in your inbox. Subscribe Now Around six inches of rain fell in Lancaster County overnight. Drivers are encouraged to avoid driving through floodwaters. Police say the only way out of Manheim Borough is Mount Joy Borough to PA 283, as all other routes are completely flooded. The National Weather Service says residents should avoid areas that are flooded and not walk through floodwaters. Flooded streets should also be avoided, as six inches of water can move a car off the roadway. Multiple roadways across Lancaster County and surrounding areas are experiencing delays due to floodwaters, including: PA 72 both directions at HORSESHOE PK. Lane restriction in place. Flooding closed PA 241 in both directions between MILTON GROVE RD and FIELDCREST DR. 511PA estimates it will reopen around 10 a.m. Flooding closed HOSSLER RD / MT PLEASANT RD / WEST RISSER MILL RD / RISSER MILL RD, both directions between RISSER MILL RD and MILTON GROVE RD. 511PA estimates it will reopen around 8 a.m. Flooding closed PA 772 in both directions between MARKET ST and COVE RD. 511PA estimates it will reopen around 10:25 a.m. Flooding closed KINDERHOOK RD / LONGENECKER RD / LONGNECKER RD in both directions between PINKERTON RD and GARFIELD RD. 511PA estimates an 8 a.m. reopening. Flooding closed PA 772 in both directions between Locust Street and Cherry Tree Lane. Reopening estimated for 10:15 a.m. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
