logo
Could an alliance of eight small countries turn out to be Europe's anchor?

Could an alliance of eight small countries turn out to be Europe's anchor?

The Guardian3 days ago

With Europe's political kaleidoscope spinning wildly in the populist winds, a group of northern countries is gaining weight as a geopolitical anchor. Known as the Nordic-Baltic eight (NB8 in diplomatic jargon), it brings together small northern European states that, individually, might have little clout in international security and politics. But since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, they have wielded growing influence as a pressure group for western resolve, offering an attractive blend of democratic security, defence integration and societal resilience.
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden established their regional cooperation format in 1992, after the end of the cold war, with regular meetings of prime ministers, parliamentary speakers, foreign and defence ministers and senior government officials. It began as a forum for wealthy, stable Nordic countries to rebuild bridges with Baltic neighbours with whom they had traded and exchanged for centuries but who had been trapped behind the iron curtain under Soviet rule since the second world war.
The group's salience has grown in the new geopolitical era of great-power rivalry in which the Arctic, the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea have once again become strategically contested zones. 'The world is changing rapidly … the most important thing is to rearm Europe,' the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, the present chair of the NB8, said in explaining why Copenhagen no longer sees its place as one of the 'frugal' countries opposed to higher EU spending. Denmark will also hold the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union from July, giving the Nordic region greater visibility.
While national-populist politicians have gained ground in central Europe, making the region more Eurosceptic and less supportive of Ukraine, the Nordics and Baltics remain a bastion of support for Kyiv and for European and Nato defence efforts, even as their policies on migration have toughened under pressure from their own populists.
The NB8 countries were involved from the outset in the Franco-British 'coalition of the willing', established to back Ukraine militarily and politically when Donald Trump suspended US assistance to Kyiv in an attempt to strong-arm Volodymyr Zelenskyy into a peace deal on Russian terms. As Frederiksen puts it, they see Ukrainian independence and defeating Moscow's aggression as being in their own vital interest, given their geographical proximity to Russia.
Both Nato and the EU are drawing extensively on the 'total defence' playbook of Finland and Sweden to engage the public and private sectors and civil society in military readiness, civil preparedness and economic resilience in the face of Russian and Chinese hybrid warfare tactics. There is much to learn from their whole-of-society approach.
Finland, for instance, with a population of 5.6 million and just 24,000 in the peacetime armed forces, can rapidly mobilise a wartime army of 180,000 and has a reserve force of 870,000 trained soldiers, thanks to a system of conscription and regular reserve duty. Business leaders are often also reserve officers. They attend regular security seminars and have legal obligations to maintain stocks, share logistics and have spare production capacity for times of crisis. Having fought two wars with the Soviet Union alone in the 1940s, the country maintains enough well-stocked bomb shelters for its entire population.
Last year, Sweden mailed an updated version of a booklet to 5m households advising citizens how to act 'in case of crisis and war', including stockpiling non-perishable food, and having a battery-operated radio and torch, a first aid kit and other necessities. The European Commission recently recommended all member states take similar action to prepare their populations for potential emergencies.
The NB8 members regularly caucus before Nato and EU meetings – although Norway and Iceland are not EU members – and coordinate their diplomacy worldwide. Symbolically, the Nordic five share an embassy complex and cultural centre in Berlin, capital of Europe's biggest economy.
In Europe's evolving power matrix, the Nordic and Baltic allies have the advantage of being stable, like-minded democracies with a broad consensus in support of defence and deterrence against Russia. That will make them dependable partners for the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, at a time when Poland now faces political instability, France has no parliamentary majority and is shackled by debt, and Italy is reluctant to step up defence efforts.
All eight have linked their armies to the UK and the Netherlands through the Joint Expeditionary Force, maintaining high-readiness forces that are trained to respond rapidly to crises. They are working with Nato to protect vital underwater cables and pipelines from Russian and Chinese sabotage efforts.
Some members have gone further in defence integration. For instance, four Nordic air forces this year created a Nordic division within Nato, whose task is to implement the Nordic Airpower Concept which enables Danish, Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish wings to operate as one force in high-readiness full-scale joint air operations. The three Baltic states are building a joint defensive line on their eastern borders modelled on Ukraine's frontline defences. And Baltic countries are discussing an Estonian concept for a 'Baltic drone wall', using AI and sensors for border monitoring and counter-drone protection.
Even if they punch above their weight, there are limits to the NB8's influence. Small, open economies rely on free trade and a stable global environment to prosper. Within the EU, the group has struggled unsuccessfully to stop the European Commission loosening its state aid enforcement rules to allow more French and German subsidies to industry. More broadly, a world shaped by tariffs, climate inaction, illiberalism and big power spheres of influence is a toxic prospect for the Nordics and Baltics.
Growing protectionism and instability could spell high noon for Europe's high north.
Paul Taylor is a senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Major blow for Australia just days before Anthony Albanese meets Donald Trump
Major blow for Australia just days before Anthony Albanese meets Donald Trump

Daily Mail​

time2 hours ago

  • Daily Mail​

Major blow for Australia just days before Anthony Albanese meets Donald Trump

The Trump administration has launched a review into the AUKUS security deal with Australia and the UK. The review, which was announced overnight on Thursday, will be led by vocal sceptic Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy who has called the pact 'crazy'. A defence official told The Daily Telegraph the Pentagon was looking at the deal to ensure 'this initiative of the previous Administration is aligned with the President's America First agenda'. 'As (Defence) Secretary (Pete) Hegseth has made clear, this means ensuring the highest readiness of our service members, that allies step up fully to do their part for collective defence, and that the defence industrial base is meeting our needs. It comes almost two weeks after it was revealed Hegseth urged Australian counterpart Richard Marles to increase military spending. Australia's total defence spend in 2024-25 was about $53.94billion, or 2 per cent of GDP. This is set to increase to 2.33 per cent by 2033-34 - but the US wants the number to be at least 3 per cent. Head of the US Seapower Subcommittee, Congressman Joe Courtney has spoken up to encourage his government not to abandon the pact. 'The new administration certainly has the right to review the trilateral AUKUS mission,' he said. 'But as the recent UK government's defence review determined, this is a defence alliance that is overwhelmingly in the best interest of all three AUKUS nations, as well as the Indo-Pacific region as a whole. 'To abandon AUKUS – which is already well underway – would cause lasting harm to our nation's standing with close allies and certainly be met with great rejoicing in Beijing.' Under the pact, Australia will spend up to $368billion eight nuclear-powered submarines and purchasing more from the United States. It marks the biggest defence investment in Australian history with the annual cost amounting to 0.15 per cent of GDP until the mid-2050s. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be attending the G7 Summit next week in Canada, during which he is expected to meet with Donald Trump.

Trump trade deal shows how vital China's rare-earth metals are to US defense firms
Trump trade deal shows how vital China's rare-earth metals are to US defense firms

The Guardian

time2 hours ago

  • The Guardian

Trump trade deal shows how vital China's rare-earth metals are to US defense firms

The draft trade agreement with China announced by Donald Trump on Wednesday would ease concerns from top US military suppliers about rare-earth metals and magnets that, if cut off permanently, could hobble production of everything from smart bombs to fighter jets to submarines and other weapons in the US arsenal. While the deal has not yet been finalised, it may reassure major defense companies such as Lockheed Martin, the largest US user of samarium – a rare-earth metal used in military-grade magnets – whose supply is entirely controlled by China. The issue of China's export restrictions on the metals and magnets was so important that Trump specifically mentioned them as part of his announcement of a broader trade agreement with China that would reduce US tariffs to 55% and Chinese tariffs to 10%. 'Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval with President Xi and me,' Trump wrote. 'Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China.' Rare earths are crucial to the production of F-35 fighter jets, Virginia- and Columbia-class nuclear-powered submarines, Tomahawk missiles, radar systems, unmanned aerial vehicles and smart bombs, according to Gracelin Baskaran of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a thinktank. China in April imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements during the tough negotiations over Trump's new tariffs. China also targeted the aerospace and defense industries by limiting 15 US entities with ties to the industry from receiving dual-use goods. 'The United States is already on the back foot when it comes to manufacturing these defense technologies,' Baskaran said in an interview published by CSIS. 'China is rapidly expanding its munitions production and acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment at a pace five to six times faster than the United States. While China is preparing with a wartime mindset, the United States continues to operate under peacetime conditions.' Trump has amassed a team of foreign policy China hawks, including a number who have warned that the US should focus more on the pacing threat posed by China over the coming decades instead of current conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East. 'Even before the latest restrictions, the US defense industrial base struggled with limited capacity and lacked the ability to scale up production to meet defense technology demands,' she continued. 'Further bans on critical minerals inputs will only widen the gap, enabling China to strengthen its military capabilities more quickly than the United States.' China and the United States had agreed last month in Geneva to pause the implementation of sky-high tariffs that would have delivered a severe economic blow to manufacturers and consumers in the US, as well as exporters in China. But China maintained export licenses on rare-earth metals used by both defense producers and carmakers that threatened to upend global supply chains and imperil production in the United States. In particular, China has a stranglehold on the production and export of samarium, a magnet used in combination with cobalt to provide highly durable magnets used to withstand the intense temperatures in military-grade tech. China produces the entire world's supply of the rare-earth metal. Sign up to This Week in Trumpland A deep dive into the policies, controversies and oddities surrounding the Trump administration after newsletter promotion In particular, the magnets are important for the production of guided missiles, satellite-guided 'smart bombs', and aircrafts, including fighter jets, according to Apex Magnets, a supplier. Those supplies of weapons have been depleted through deliveries of missiles and other ordnance to Ukraine and to the Israeli military. Pentagon planners and other officials in the administration of Joe Biden, regularly squared off over whether foreign weapons deliveries expose a US vulnerability in case it faced off with a major military power. In order to break the deadlock, secretary of state Marco Rubio also abruptly announced plans to cancel hundreds of thousands of visas for Chinese students in the United States. While publicly that was said as a plan to root out Chinese spies in US higher education, Axios reported that the visa ban was also motivated by China's obstinance on resuming rare earths exports. The breakthrough comes as Trump is planning to display US military prowess at a parade in Washington DC this weekend that has been seen as an attempt to flex American muscle and reinforce the US president's bonafides as a supporter of the military. Trump in 2019 ordered the Pentagon to find new sources of procuring rare earth minerals, in particular samarium, because the US did not have the capacity to produce them domestically. The initiative was 'essential to the national defense', he said then.

Pentagon launches review of US-UK-Australia Aukus security alliance
Pentagon launches review of US-UK-Australia Aukus security alliance

The Guardian

time2 hours ago

  • The Guardian

Pentagon launches review of US-UK-Australia Aukus security alliance

The Pentagon has launched a review of the Aukus submarine agreement to make sure it is aligned with Trump's 'America first' agenda, throwing the $240bn defense pact with Britain and Australia into doubt The review may trigger more allied anxiety over the future of the trilateral alliance designed to counter China's military rise. 'The department is reviewing Aukus as part of ensuring that this initiative of the previous administration is aligned with the president's 'America first' agenda,' a Pentagon official said. 'This means ensuring the highest readiness of our service members, that allies step up fully to do their part for collective defense and that the defense industrial base is meeting our needs.' The 2021 Biden-era agreement – met with mass excitement in Australia's security world – would see Australia acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines, with the US promising to sell up to five Virginia-class vessels from 2032. A new joint submarine class would follow in the early 2040s. But now, the Aukus-skeptic US undersecretary of defense, Elbridge Colby, has called for the review to determine whether the Australia-UK-US security alliance aligns with Trump's 'America first' agenda, a number of anonymous sources told Reuters. Colby posted on X last year that it 'would be crazy' for the US to have fewer nuclear submarines if conflict erupted over Taiwan. The British government responded cautiously to news of the US review, saying: 'Aukus is a landmark security and defence partnership with two of our closest allies. It is one of the most strategically important partnerships in decades, supporting peace and security in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic, while also delivering jobs and economic growth in communities across all three nations. 'It is understandable that a new administration would want to review its approach to such a major partnership, just as the UK did last year. The UK will continue to work closely with the US and Australia at all levels to maximise the benefits and opportunities which Aukus presents for our three nations.' Nuclear submarine powers are members of an exclusive club – only six countries currently operate them: the US, the UK, Russia, China, France and India. Aukus would make Australia the seventh. And while generally favored by US lawmakers focused on national security – and as Australia tries to step up its security spending in line with Trump's wishes – the deal's survival now appears to be in the balance. The US president himself does not seem to have made a priority of the pact. Asked about Aukus during Keir Starmer's visit in February, Trump appeared unfamiliar with the acronym, responding: 'What does that mean?' The review follows defense secretary Pete Hegseth's demand last week that Australia increase military spending from 2% to 3.5% of GDP. The country's prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has pledged only 2.4%, insisting Australia will set its own defense priorities. One British government official acknowledged the review to the FT and emphasized their commitment to the partnership. Hours before the news broke, the UK government announced a handsome $7.69bn investment to its nuclear submarine industrial base. Aukus represents the most substantial military cooperation between the three nations in generations, extending beyond submarines to include hypersonic missiles and advanced weapons technology. More details soon …

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store