The moment of truth for Germany
EXCLUSIVE OFFER: Get The New European for just £1 for the first month. Head to theneweuropean.co.uk/2matts
Keir Starmer has pledged British boots on the ground to keep whatever peace Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin carve up between them over Ukraine. The consequences are staggering and disturbing, as the Matts discover during the course of a tightly argued podcast. Meanwhile, JD Vance openly humiliates European leaders and sends the clearest signal yet […]
Is Labour's immigration posturing the last straw for those who wanted a progressive government? Should Eric Schmidt be listened to about anything? And was the last Liverpool derby at Goodison Park a game for the ages? The Matts ponder all in this Sunday's bonus Q&A episode. Enjoy! EXCLUSIVE OFFER: Get The New European for just […]
The Matts are live at the Media Collective Summit and discuss the extraordinary pace of events in Washington – are we literally watching a coup taking place in the world's biggest democracy? Who is in charge? Elon Musk or Donald Trump? And what are the consequences for Europe? How should Keir Starmer react? In part […]
The Matts are joined by Bloomberg's Parmy Olson – author of Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT and the race that will change the world. Parmy leads us through the development of Artificial Intelligence, the extraordinary story of the two men leading the race towards AGI (don't worry, all will be explained) and the enormous opportunities and challenges […]
Is the leader of the opposition 'Bad Enoch' or just 'bad enough'? Are there no red lines for the UK when facing Trump? And do journalists pale in comparison to the Black Country Bard himself, Mr Adrian Chiles? Find out in our latest instalment of our weekly Q&A. Enjoy! Get a FREE bottle of tequila […]
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Leader Live
32 minutes ago
- Leader Live
Labour sees biggest first-year poll drop for governing party since 1990s
Sir Keir Starmer's party has averaged 24% in polls in the past month, down 10 points from 34% in the weeks following the 2024 election. It is common for political parties to experience a slide in the polls after taking power – it has happened to every UK government bar one in the past 40 years – but a drop of this size is unusual. The last time it was in double digits was 1992-93, when the Tory administration led by Mr Major saw its poll numbers fall 12 points, from an average of 43% in the weeks after the April 1992 election to 31% a year later. The findings have been compiled by the PA news agency, using its own archive of national poll data combined with figures published in the long-running British General Election academic studies. Polls measuring voting intention do not always appear in the immediate aftermath of an election – for instance, the first polls of this parliament were not carried out until the start of August 2024, one month after Labour's victory on July 4. To compare Labour's poll performance fairly with that of previous governments, the average poll numbers in the weeks after a general election have been compared with those for the month leading up to the first anniversary of that election. Almost every government in the past four decades has seen their poll standings slip over this period, but mostly by single digits – and often from a much higher starting point than Labour's 34% in 2024. For example, the Labour government led by Tony Blair saw its vote share in the polls drop by an average of six points during its first year in office in 1997-98, though from the lofty heights of 59% to 53%, still well ahead of all other parties. Labour's second term under Mr Blair saw a larger poll drop of seven points, but from 49% to 42% – again, comfortably ahead of its rivals. The Conservative government led by Boris Johnson elected in 2019 saw its first-year poll ratings also slip by seven points, but from 46% to 39%. There were smaller drops at the start of Labour's third term in 2005-06 (down five points in 12 months) and at the start of Conservative leader David Cameron's first term as PM in 2010 (down three points), though Mr Cameron's second win in 2015 was followed by a larger six-point fall. The one recent exception to this trend was the Conservative minority government led by Theresa May that was elected in 2017, with Tory support in the polls increasing by two points over 12 months, from 40% to 42%. A first-year drop in the polls for a governing party is typically accompanied by a rise in support for the main opposition in Parliament. But the past 12 months have seen something different and new in UK politics: a simultaneous and large fall in support for both the government and the opposition, with the Conservatives slipping from an average of 25% in the aftermath of the 2024 election to 18% over the past month. And while Labour and the Tories have both slid in the polls, smaller parties have risen – notably Reform, which has climbed from third place on 17% to first place on 29%. The Liberal Democrats have also edged up, from 12% to 14%, while the Greens have increased from 6% to 9%. Opinion polls are snapshots of the prevailing public mood, not projections or forecasts – and they do not predict what could happen at the next general election. But the amount of movement in recent polls, in particular the fall in support for both Labour and the Conservatives, points to an unsettled mood among voters and a volatile political landscape. Sir Keir's personal approval ratings make similarly challenging reading for the Prime Minister. Polling company Ipsos has measured public satisfaction with prime ministers since the late 1970s. Its data tracks the proportion of adults in Britain who say they are either satisfied or dissatisfied with how the PM is doing their job. The difference between these two numbers represents the approval score. The most recent Ipsos survey, completed in early June – not quite a full year since the general election – suggests 19% of adults are satisfied with Sir Keir's performance and 73% are dissatisfied, giving him a net approval score of minus 54. This is lower than any other score recorded by Ipsos for a prime minister roughly 12 months after taking office. The next lowest score is minus 48, for Labour's Gordon Brown in June 2008, and minus 37 for the Conservatives' Rishi Sunak in October 2023. The highest approval ratings were for Mr Blair in May 1998 (a plus score of 44) and Mr Major in November 1991 (plus 15). The other scores are minus 3 for Mr Cameron (May 2011); minus 7 for Conservative PM Margaret Thatcher (June 1980) and minus 25 for Mrs May (July 2017), while Mr Johnson had a net approval rating of zero a year into office in July 2020, with the same proportion of people saying they were satisfied and dissatisfied. Sir Keir's current score of minus 54 is not quite the worst ever approval rating for a prime minister reported by Ipsos, however. Mrs Thatcher dropped as low as minus 56 in March 1990, while both Mr Major and Mr Sunak sank as far as minus 59, in August 1994 and April 2024 respectively.
Daily Mail
32 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Trump calls for Jerome 'Mr. Too Late' Powell to resign as Fed chair 'immediately'
President Donald Trump has escalated his feud with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by demanding the head of the central bank 'resign immediately.' The president has for months blasted Powell - whom he appointed to the position in 2017 - over his refusal to lower interest rates, which Trump claims cost the country a 'fortune' in debt servicing costs. Trump last month seemed to threaten to remove Powell from his role before his term expires in May 2026, though the Supreme Court signaled he is unauthorized to do so. The president then sent Powell a handwritten note on Monday that he is 'too late' in bringing down rates after other country's central banks already announced rate cuts. But Powell has consistently said Fed decisions would not be influenced by political pressure - and has hinted that the central bank would have lowered interest rates if it weren't for the inflation risks brought by Trump's tariffs. The president's latest attack on Powell, in which he wrote that '"Too Late" should resign immediately,' now comes on the heels of Bill Pulte - the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency - asking Congress to investigate the Fed chair. Pulte accused Powell of making 'deceptive' statements at a congressional hearing about the mounting costs of planned renovations to the Federal Reserve headquarters. In his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, Powell pushed back at reports that the $2.5 billion plans include luxurious items like a VIP dining room and a new marble table. On Wednesday, Trump called on Powell to 'resign immediately' 'All of the sort of inflammatory thing that the media carried are either not in the current plan or just inaccurate,' the Fed chairman said, according to Bloomberg. Other costs, like repairing elevators that go directly to board members' offices and marble fixtures, were basic upkeep, he argued. But Pulte now argues that Powell knowingly lied about the opulent renovations. 'I am asking Congress to investigate Chairman Jerome Powell, his political bias and his deceptive Senate testimony,' the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in a statement. 'Jerome Powell's $2.5B Building Renovation Scandal stinks to high heaven and he lied when asked about the specifics before Congress,' Pulte continued. 'This is nothing short of malfeasance and is worthy "for cause."' He then cited remarks from Wyoming Sen. Cynthia Lummis, who claimed Powell 'made a number of factually incorrect statements... regarding the Fed's plush private dining room and elevator, skylights, water features and roof terrace.' 'This is typical of the mismanagement and "don't bother me" attitude that Chairman Powell has always shown,' she said. Bill Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, accused Powell of lying about the renovations and called for a Congressional investigation Rep. Jim Jordan, a Republican from Ohio who chairs the House Judiciary Committee, told Bloomberg that the committee has not yet discussed whether to investigate Powell but said 'everything's on the table.' 'We'll take a look at that,' he vowed.
Leader Live
32 minutes ago
- Leader Live
Starmer faces Labour turmoil and global volatility as he marks year in Number 10
The Prime Minister led his party back into power with more than 400 MPs on July 4 last year – clinching a majority just short of Sir Tony Blair's landslide in 1997. But with a daunting in-tray of problems including a stuttering economy, creaking public services and global volatility, his political honeymoon period was short-lived. His personal popularity is now the lowest of any British premier after their first 12 months in office, political scientist and polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said. 'There were pretty clear potential weaknesses before they even started, and most of those weaknesses have basically just been exposed over the course of the last 12 months,' he told the PA news agency. Sir John said part of the problem lay in what he described as a failure of narrative in setting out the Government's vision for change to the public. 'They're portraying themselves as a repair gang rather than the builders of a new Jerusalem. Pessimism doesn't necessarily go down very well,' he told PA. 'The thing with Starmer is, he's a brilliant prosecution lawyer… But prosecution lawyers present cases that have been (put together) by someone else. The problem is that as a political leader you've got to prosecute your own case. 'Maybe he needs new personnel? Either he's got to learn to do it himself or get someone in to do it for him.' That verdict was echoed by some dissenting voices within Labour ranks, where there is lingering discontent among rebels over the Government's Welfare Bill despite Number 10 offering major concessions on the legislation. The Government saw off the threat of a major Commons defeat over the legislation on Tuesday after shelving plans to restrict eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip), the main disability benefit in England. 'I think he really needs to think about why he wants to be a Labour Prime Minister and what is it he actually cares about,' one long-serving Labour MP said. They said Tuesday had marked 'the lowest point' in Sir Keir's premiership so far and raised questions about his authority, warning that backbenchers may now feel emboldened to demand further U-turns elsewhere. Sir John said that the Government's challenges in passing legislation were unsurprising with the broad but fragile coalition of support on which Labour built its election victory, securing 412 seats on just 35% of the vote. That means many MPs defending narrow majorities and raises the prospect of 'a large body of people who are nervous about their political futures,' he said. The Government's original welfare proposals had been part of a package that ministers expected to save up to £5 billion a year, leaving Chancellor Rachel Reeves needing to look for the money elsewhere. The fallout threatens to cause lasting damage to morale in Labour ranks, with some rebels calling for a reset in relations between the parliamentary party and the leadership before fractures widen. Images of the Chancellor crying in the Commons on Wednesday have also led to questions about her future, although a Treasury spokesman cited a 'personal matter' as the cause of her distress and Number 10 said she would remain in post. Asked whether it was time for a course correction, Downing Street has said the Prime Minister will 'plough on' with the 'very busy agenda' of Government. But the MP quoted above said: 'The idea that they can keep carrying on as they've been carrying on is suicidal. 'They have no real sense of how the party thinks and feels.' Others had a more optimistic view of the year ahead, with a Starmer loyalist who supported the Bill suggesting the upset could be salvaged with a 'measured but solid response' from the Government. 'The worst they can do is nothing,' the backbencher added. The Prime Minister used a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday to defend his record in office, telling ministers the welfare Bill was 'to help those who can work into employment and ensure dignity and security for those who can't work.' He said they could all 'rightly look back with a real sense of pride and achievement' on the last 12 months, pointing to a reduction in NHS waiting lists and a series of economic agreements struck with the US, EU and India. Abroad, the Prime Minister faces a tricky diplomatic balancing act as he seeks to strengthen ties with both Europe and Washington amid global instability from the Ukraine war and Middle East crisis. At home, Labour is staring down a threat from Nigel Farage's Reform UK party, which turned opinion poll momentum into widespread gains at the ballot box during the local elections in May. Sir John said that parties such as Reform and the Greens offer more choice to voters wanting to express their discontent with Labour while the Tories continue to flounder in the polls. 'The character of the challenge is different from what it has been historically,' he said. Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University, said people had been expecting bold change on areas such as workers' rights and growth, and the Government's achievements so far were 'pretty small beer' by comparison. Critics say the first year has instead been marked by a series of U-turns, including a partial reversal of cuts to the winter fuel payment and the move to launch a national inquiry into grooming gangs after months of resisting opposition pressure to do so. The Government disputes that framing, pointing out for example that ministers had never explicitly ruled out a statutory probe into child sexual exploitation but waited for a review to be carried out before making a decision. Prof Bale said he believed the first year had gone 'worse than most people imagined' and warned 'it's difficult for a leader who starts badly to persuade people that he or she is what they need.' But he said the problems were not necessarily fatal, adding that setbacks early on in a premiership have an upside in allowing for more time to 'turn it round'. 'If you look back to Margaret Thatcher, she was able to do that, so it's not a foregone conclusion that all is lost, even for Keir Starmer himself,' he said. Arguing that the Government could recover in the polls if its plans for the economy and public services pay off, he added: 'I think you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but it's a very long tunnel.' Sir Keir has pledged to lead a 'decade of national renewal' through a phased approach to Government, the first year of which he said would involve 'cleaning up the mess' his administration had inherited. In a speech last week seeking to set the tone for the future, he said: 'We've wiped the state clean, we've stabilised the economy, and now we can go on to the next phase of government, building on that foundation.' A Government spokesperson said: 'We were elected with a commitment to deliver change and security for working people – and we are getting on with the job. 'We are delivering our Plan for Change – wages are rising faster than prices, interest rates have been cut four times, immigration has come down with 30,000 people with no right to be here removed and over four million NHS appointments have been delivered. 'Progress has been made, but we know people are impatient for change – and we are too – so we will continue to govern in the national interest for British people and deliver a decade of national renewal.'
