World Has 80% Chance of Seeing Next Record Hot Year Before 2030

Mint

28-05-2025

(Bloomberg) -- Human-made climate change will continue warming the planet, with new temperature highs forecast to be recorded over the next five years, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization.
The world's average temperatures will be between 1.2C and 1.9C higher than the average in pre-industrial times, the report said. The warming will increase extreme weather events that will impact societies and economies.
'There will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,' said WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. 'Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years.'
Global leaders committed to cut greenhouse gas emissions to levels that would keep planetary heating at 1.5C above pre-industrial times over the long term when they signed the Paris Agreement a decade ago. Global average temperatures exceeded the 1.5C threshold last year on an annual basis for the first time, a sign that countries are failing to limit warming.
The chance the average temperature for the next five years will exceed 1.5C has quickly increased over time, from a 32% chance in the 2023 report to a 70% chance in this year's report. There's also an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will be warmer than 2024, the hottest year on record, the WMO said.
Every additional fraction of a degree of warming will lead to more intense, frequent and harmful heat waves, extreme rain and drought. The ice sheets will melt faster and so will sea ice and glaciers. The oceans will continue warming and sea levels will rise too.
The Arctic is forecast to warm more than 3.5 times the global average over the next five winters — from November to March — at 2.4C above the average temperature between 1991 and 2020, the WMO said.
Rain patterns will vary widely across regions, with the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia expected to be wetter, and the Amazon expected to be drier this season.
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