Russia has ‘seized the upper hand' in Ukraine war, intel community warns
U.S. intelligence agencies sounded the alarm on Ukraine's dwindling battlefield prospects against Russia in an annual report released Tuesday.
The
2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
— released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in conjunction with top officials' testimony at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing — warns that Moscow has 'seized the upper hand' in the war over the past year and 'is on a path to accrue greater leverage' to force favorable terms in its negotiations with Ukraine and the West.
Intelligence agencies see continued Russian military resilience despite heavy battlefield losses — replenishing personnel and ratcheting up its industrial capacity.
'Even though Russian President [Vladimir] Putin will be unable to achieve the total victory he envisioned when initiating the large-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia retains momentum as a grinding war of attrition plays to Russia's military advantages,' the report states. 'This grinding war of attrition will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv's position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow.'
The analysis comes as President Donald Trump presses for a pact to end the war after he campaigned on negotiating a settlement between Russia and Ukraine within the first 24 hours of his presidency. U.S.-Ukraine ties, however, are the most turbulent they've been since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Trump's push also has Ukraine's advocates in the U.S. and Europe concerned that a potential deal may be on terms that are too favorable to Russia.
However, the assessment casts doubt on Russia or Ukraine's desire for a deal. Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are 'interested in continuing discussions' to end the war, the report concludes, but both leaders 'probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement.'
'Regardless of how and when the war in Ukraine ends, Russia's current geopolitical, economic, military, and domestic political trends underscore its resilience and enduring potential threat to U.S. power, presence, and global interests,' the intelligence report argues.
The intelligence community report also prominently addresses threats posed by drug cartels, listing them first, in addition to terrorist groups and other transnational criminal groups.
Senate Intelligence Chair
Tom Cotton
said it's the first time the report highlights illicit drug groups before other major threats. The move reflects the Trump administration's focus on border security and cracking down on undocumented immigration.
In her opening remarks at the Senate worldwide threats hearing, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said non-state criminal groups and terrorists are 'what most immediately and directly threatens the United States and the well-being of the American people.'
The report points to fentanyl and other illicit drugs trafficked by transnational criminal organizations but also noted that some groups 'are conducting other illegal activities that challenge U.S. security, such as human trafficking, cyber operations, money laundering, and inciting violence.'
Beijing represents 'the most comprehensive and robust military threat' to the U.S., the report adds in its assessment.
Intelligence agencies argue China will likely ratchet up coercive actions against Taiwan, and the report predicts 'steady but uneven' progress by China in developing the military capabilities needed to invade the self-governing island and deter a U.S. intervention.
The report points to continued military advances by Beijing, including the development of long-range missiles, the expansion of its navy and the modernization of ground forces. China, the intelligence agencies assess, 'remains intent' on expanding and overhauling its nuclear arsenal.
Beijing also likely has developed a 'multifaceted, national-level strategy' to supplant the U.S. as the world's leader in artificial intelligence by 2030.
The intelligence community also maintained its assessment that Iran isn't currently building a nuclear weapon, but notes that 'pressure has probably built on [Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] to do so.'
'In the past year, there has been an erosion of a decades-long taboo on discussing nuclear weapons in public that has emboldened nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus,' the report states.
Iran will use its missile capabilities and nuclear program to buttress its influence in the Middle East and continue to aid militant groups to counter Israel and the U.S. But the report also notes that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the military degradation of the militant group Hezbollah 'have led leaders in Tehran to raise fundamental questions regarding Iran's approach.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Axios
15 minutes ago
- Axios
Scoop: Every Senate Dem demands Trump withdraw military from Los Angeles
Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) led the entire Senate Democratic in writing to President Trump Sunday, demanding he remove all military forces from Los Angeles and cease threats to further deploy troops, Axios has learned. Why it matters: Padilla was physically removed from a press conference held by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and handcuffed Thursday, triggering a five-alarm fire for Democrats. The letter from Padilla and 46 other Senate Democrats asked Trump to "immediately withdraw all military personnel that have been deployed to Los Angeles in recent day." Trump federalized California's National Guard without the state's consent and mobilized more than 700 Marines to the state to try to quash protests over his mass deportation program. "Respect for our Constitution and for our civilian law enforcement demands nothing less," the Senate Democrats wrote. Driving the news: A federal appeals court on Thursday ruled that the Trump administration's deployment of the California National Guard can continue, for now. The Pentagon said on Friday that U.S. troops will not be responsible for law enforcement at the Los Angeles riots. Instead, they will protect federal property and personnel. Protests over the deportations have spread to numerous cities across the country, and Trump has warned that he may deploy troops to different areas. The Democrats asked Trump to "cease any further threats of deploying National Guard or other active duty military personnel into American cities absent a request from the Governor." Between the lines: The fight against the White House's deportation program is becoming a rallying point for Democrats who have largely been split over how to push back against Trump. Padilla's incident at the Noem presser on Thursday added more fuel to the flames. Democrats almost universally panned the manhandling of a sitting U.S. senator.
Yahoo
15 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Here's the Cost To Live in the US Cities With the Best Quality of Life
While cost of living is an incredibly important factor to consider when making any kind of financial plans for your life, perhaps less tangible but no less important is 'quality of life' — the measure of overall safety, education, healthcare and even commute times in your local area. After all, these elements are crucial to enjoying daily life and feeling satisfied with what that life financially costs you. Check Out: Learn This: Recently, U.S. News & World Report (UNWR) curated a list of the American cities with the highest Quality of Life Index (a system measuring the satisfaction level of residents in various cities). Further, UNWR broke down the cost of living for such high-quality cities — specifically, the average housing prices and median household income for cities that topped their Quality of Life Index. Wondering whether you could afford to live in an American city with a higher quality of life than nearly any other? Planning to retire somewhere with an easy commute, low crime and excellent healthcare? Check out the list to find out whether one of the 20 American cities with the best quality of life fits into your financial plan. Median home value: $1,272,125 Median household income: $144,602 Livability score: 5.8 Find More: Read This: Median home value: $1,170,994 Median household income: $193,307 Livability score: 6.5 Also See: Median home value: $1,004,244 Median household income: $189,538 Livability score: 6.8 Median home value: $1,235,465 Median household income: $162,072 Livability score: 6.1 Median home value: $605,251 Median household income: $96,668 Livability score: 5.1 Enjoy This: Median home value: $560,849 Median household income: $98,605 Livability score: 6.2 Median home value: $985,214 Median household income: $130,052 Livability score: 5.7 Median home value: $990,492 Median household income: $127,516 Livability score: 6.3 Learn More: Median home value: $636,683 Median household income: $127,516 Livability score: 6.3 Median home value: $410,180 Median household income: $62,393 Livability score: 4.5 Median home value: $627,797 Median household income: $163,286 Livability score: 6.8 See More: Median home value: $830,848 Median household income: $141,140 Livability score: 6.1 Median home value: $584,446 Median household income: $96,149 Livability score: 6.0 Median home value: $287,909 Median household income: $65,648 Livability score: 5.6 Trending Now: Median home value: $276,828 Median household income: $63,944 Livability score: 5.5 Median home value: $2,764,855 Median household income: $223,951 Livability score: 6.1 Median home value: $660,984 Median household income: $180,103 Livability score: 6.2 Median home value: $399,216 Median household income: $93,832 Livability score: 6.1 Find Out: Median home value: $729,136 Median household income: $78,477 Livability score: 4.4 Median home value: $337,136 Median household income: $68,895 Livability score: 5.4 More From GOBankingRates 6 Hybrid Vehicles To Stay Away From in Retirement This article originally appeared on Here's the Cost To Live in the US Cities With the Best Quality of Life
San Francisco Chronicle
16 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
As Trump goes to G7 summit, other world leaders aim to show they're not intimidated
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump has long bet that he can scare allies into submission — a gamble that is increasingly being tested ahead of the Group of Seven summit beginning Monday in Canada. He's threatened stiff tariffs in the belief that other nations would crumple. He's mused about taking over Canada and Greenland. He's suggested he will not honor NATO's obligations to defend partners under attack. And he's used Oval Office meetings to try to intimidate the leaders of Ukraine and South Africa. But many world leaders see fewer reasons to be cowed by Trump, even as they recognize the risks if he followed through on his threats. They believe he will ultimately back down — since many of his plans could inflict harm on the U.S. — or that he can simply be charmed and flattered into cooperating. 'Many leaders still seem intimidated by Trump, but increasingly they are catching on to his pattern of bullying,' said Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 'In places as diverse as Canada, Iran, China and the EU, we are seeing increasing signs that leaders now recognize that Trump is afraid of anything resembling a fair fight. And so they are increasingly willing to stand up to him.' In the 22 instances in which Trump has publicly threatened military action since his first term, the U.S. only used force twice, according to a May analysis by Shapiro. World leaders feel comfortable standing up to Trump Ahead of the G7 summit, there are already signs of subtle pushback against Trump from fellow leaders in the group. French President Emanuel Macron planned to visit Greenland over the weekend in a show of European solidarity. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said the U.S. is no longer the 'predominant' force in the world after Trump's tariffs created fissures in a decades-long partnership between the U.S. and its northern neighbor. 'We stood shoulder to shoulder with the Americans throughout the Cold War and in the decades that followed, as the United States played a predominant role on the world stage," Carney said this past week in French. "Today, that predominance is a thing of the past.' The new prime minister added that with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the U.S. became the global hegemon, a position of authority undermined by Trump's transactional nature that puts little emphasis on defending democratic values or the rule of law. 'Now the United States is beginning to monetize its hegemony: charging for access to its markets and reducing its relative contributions to our collective security,' Carney said. Israel's attack on Iran has added a new wrinkle to the global picture as the summit leaders gather to tackle some of the world's thorniest problems A senior Canadian official said it was decided early on that the G7 won't be issuing a joint communiqué as it has at past summits — an indication of how hard it can be to get Trump on the same page with other world leaders. The White House said individual leader statements will be issued on the issues being discussed. Speaking last month at a conference in Singapore, Macron called France a 'friend and an ally of the United States' but pushed back against Trump's desire to dominate what other countries do. Macron said efforts to force other nations to choose between the U.S. and China would lead to the breakdown of the global order put in place after World War II. 'We want to cooperate, but we do not want to be instructed on a daily basis what is allowed, what is not allowed, and how our life will change because of the decision of a single person,' Macron said. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pushed back against Trump's agenda of levying higher tariffs on imported goods, arguing it would hurt economic growth. The Japanese leader specifically called Trump ahead of the summit to confirm their plans to talk on the sidelines, which is a greater focus for Japan than the summit itself. 'I called him as I also wanted to congratulate his birthday, though one day earlier,' Ishiba said. Trump cares about being tough, but G7 is a chance to reset relations Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., the ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, said the summit was an opportunity for Trump to 'mend' relationships with other countries so China would be unable to exploit differences among the G7. She said other foreign leaders are 'not intimidated' by Trump's actions, which could be driving them away from tighter commitments with the U.S. 'The conversations that I've had with those leaders suggest that they think that the partnership with the United States has been really important, but they also understand that there are other opportunities,' Shaheen said. The White House did not respond to emailed questions for this story. Many leaders feel more confident that they can sidestep Trump's threats Having originally made his reputation in real estate and hospitality, Trump has taken kindly to certain foreign visitors, such as U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Starmer has sought to keep Trump in line with Europe in supporting Ukraine and NATO instead of brokering any truces that would favor Russia. He has echoed the president's language about NATO members spending more on defense. But in his Oval Office visit, Starmer also pleased Trump by delivering an invite for a state visit from King Charles III. The German government said it, too, wanted to send a public signal of unity, saying that while Trump's recent meeting with Merz at the White House went harmoniously, the next test is how the relationship plays out in a team setting. There will also be other world leaders outside of the G7 nations attending the summit in mountainous Kananaskis, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom Trump dressed down in the Oval Office. Italy's Meloni has positioned herself as a 'bridge' between the Trump administration and the rest of Europe. But Italy's strong support of Ukraine and Trump's threatened tariffs on European goods have put Meloni, the only European leader to attend Trump's inauguration, in a difficult position. Mark Sobel, U.S. chair of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, an independent think tank, said Trump's 'trade policies, backing for right wing European movements, seeming preference for dealing with authoritarians and many of his other actions are alienating our G7 allies,' even if the U.S. president is correct that Europe needs to do more on defense. But even as other G7 leaders defuse any public disputes with Trump, the U.S. president's vision for the world remains largely incompatible with they want. 'In short, behind the curtains, and notwithstanding whatever theater, the Kananaskis summit will highlight a more fragmented G7 and an adrift global economy," Sobel said.
