Without The SDF Maintaining Stability In Syria, The United States Will Need Boots On The Ground To Defeat The Resurgence Of ISIS

Memri

a day ago

After the fall of the Assad regime, two main military forces now remain in Syria with two opposing ideologies and irreconcilable visions: the so-called Syrian government, which is made up of Turkish-backed jihadi factions, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is comprised of Kurdish, Arab, and Christian forces. While the SDF are pro-West and democratic, the Syrian government is pro-sharia and is ideologically aligned with ISIS. Despite its attempts to project moderation, its extremist ideology and reliance on extremist groups have only fueled sectarian violence and enabled the resurgence of ISIS across Syria.
The areas controlled by the Syrian government have witnessed mass violence, systematic ethnic cleansing, demographic changes,[1] sexual slavery,[2] forced conversions, and relentless attacks on religious minorities including the Alawites, the Druze, and Christians.[3] More than a million people have been displaced, thousands of people killed, and hundreds of women abused and enslaved. By contrast, in the SDF-controlled region, officially called the Democratic Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (DAANES), diverse religious minorities and ethnic groups live together peacefully under a democratic confederalist system despite ongoing attacks by both ISIS and Turkey aimed at destabilizing their autonomy.
Syrian Government Relies On ISIS Elements To Entrench Its Rule In Syria
Since the fall of the Assad regime, ISIS has taken advantage of the vacuum and instability in Syria and has carried out increasingly complex attacks. The resurgence of ISIS poses a serious threat to the region, to the West, and to the U.S. in particular.
For more than a decade, the U.S.-backed SDF has been the primary force containing ISIS in northeastern Syria. In the past eight months, pro-Qatar and pro-Turkey think tanks and lobbyists in Washington, D.C., and European capitals have tried to rebrand Ahmed Al-Sharaa (Jolani), a former ISIS and Al-Qaeda leader, as a moderate president and have promoted the narrative that the Syrian regime is a viable alternative to SDF, and that, with Turkish support, it could fight ISIS on behalf of the U.S.
In reality, however, over the past eight months the Syrian regime under Jolani has shown little willingness to fight ISIS. On the contrary, there is substantial evidence that the Syrian regime has heavily relied on ISIS elements in its attacks against minorities. A notorious example is the so-called "Tribal Forces," which are largely composed of fighters formerly part of or affiliated with ISIS. After the territorial defeat of ISIS, the IRGC regrouped these forces and used them for years against the U.S. and U.S.-backed SDF. After the fall of the Assad regime, these armed groups were incorporated into the Syrian army and are now used by Ahmed Al-Sharaa as proxies against minorities and the U.S.-backed SDF to entrench his rule in Syria.
Syrian soldier wearing ISIS patch before entering Druze city of Sweida. (see MEMRI TV clip)
Syrian regime forces wearing ISIS flag patches capture an elderly Druze civilian in Suwayda, calling the Druze "pigs." (See video).
Syrian regime soldier wearing the ISIS patch. (See video)
Turkey's Goal In Syria Is The Ethnic Cleansing Of Kurds, Not Fighting ISIS
Turkey has repeatedly claimed that it has the military capability to replace the U.S. in Syria and combat ISIS. However, not only are Turkey's deep ties to ISIS well-documented,[4] but its primary objectives in Syria are territorial expansionism and the destruction of the Kurdish SDF rather than defeating ISIS, which it has strategically used against the Kurds for over a decade. More than 40,000 ISIS terrorists from 110 countries entered Syria through Turkey, along with their weapons and supplies.[5] More recently, in December 2024, ISIS elements participated in the attacks against U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in Manbij city.[6] Turkey continues to serve as a key logistical and financial hub for ISIS. Therefore, the U.S. should not depend on Turkey to combat ISIS.[7]
An ISIS fighter was filmed at a checkpoint operated by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) near Manbij during a live broadcast by the Turkish television HaberTürk in December 2024.[8]
Erdoğan has made it clear that Turkey's goal in Syria is to radically re-engineer the demographics of Northeast Syria. In an interview with the state-run TRT channel, Erdoğan openly justified the rationale behind his ethnic cleansing of Kurds, saying: "What is important is to prepare a controlled life in this enormous area, and the most suitable people for it are Arabs. These areas are not suitable for the lifestyle of Kurds, because these areas are virtually desert."[9]
Turkey carried out two military operations into the Kurdish region in northern Syria from 2018 to 2019, killing, injuring, or maiming thousands of Kurds and uprooting over 500,000 more. Turkey continues to threaten to execute more attacks against the Kurds if they refuse to lay down their arms and surrender to Turkish-backed factions.
Jolani's Child Soldiers
The Syrian government is actively recruiting, training, and radicalizing hundreds or possibly thousands of children across Syria. Arming children and turning them into suicide bombers is not just terrorism; it is child abuse and a crime against humanity.
Child soldiers trained by Turkish-backed factions of the Syrian army. (See video)
ISIS Prisoners – A Ticking Time Bomb
The SDF manages 28 detention facilities holding around 10,000 ISIS terrorists and 46,000 supporters and family members in camps like Al-Hol and Roj.[10] ISIS considers the fighters held in these facilities to be its greatest asset and has attempted to free them, as demonstrated by its attacks on Ghuwayran prison in Hasaka in 2022 that resulted in hundreds of deaths and hundreds of ISIS prisoners fleeing the prison to Turkey and areas controlled by Turkish-backed factions.[11]
U.S. officials have warned about a massive jailbreak if Turkey attacks the SDF. "This is essentially a terrorist army in detention," says retired four-star general Joseph Votel, who led U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019 during the fight against ISIS.[12] If the U.S. allows Turkey and the Syrian government to attack the SDF and occupy Northeast Syria, thousands of ISIS members held in detention facilities and camps will be released, allowing ISIS to quickly regain territorial control in Syria.
A 2014-Style ISIS Resurgence
Since January 2025, ISIS attacks have drastically increased in Syria. Noticeably 94 percent of these attacks have targeted SDF-controlled areas. ISIS elements, whether operating independently or as part of Syria's so-called "Tribal Forces," operate freely in regime-controlled territory where they stage attacks against U.S. allies and then retreat to government-held areas.
Recent reports show that ISIS has expanded globally and significantly restructured its organization, its branches IS Khorasan Province (ISKP) and IS Turkey Province have played key roles in several attack plots since 2023. European security forces have disrupted several ISIS plots and analysts and security officials have warned of an increasing risk of ISIS attacks against the West. [13]
If the security situation in Syria deteriorates further, and if Turkey continues to intervene in Syria's internal affairs and arm extremist groups, we will soon witness a 2014-style ISIS resurgence that would plunge the entire region into bloodshed.
Conclusion: Kurds Are The Last Line Of Defense Against ISIS
The SDF, with more than 100,000 battle-hardened soldiers, have served as ground forces for the U.S., keeping the region safe and stable for years. The U.S.-led campaign against ISIS (2014-present) has resulted in 120 U.S. casualties,[14] while the SDF has lost more than 12,000 fighters since 2014. Between 2014 and 2023, alone, the war against ISIS in Syria and Iraq cost the U.S. taxpayers $68.269 billion,[15] despite minimal U.S. military presence on the ground. Any attacks on Kurds by Turkey and the Syrian regime would allow ISIS to regain control over large parts of Syria and launch another wave of terrorist attacks in the West. If this happens, the U.S. would be forced to send tens of thousands of troops to Syria to contain ISIS again. The human and financial costs of the war would be massive, thousands of U.S. soldiers could lose their lives and the war would cost the U.S. tens of billions of dollars.
To prevent this, the U.S. should support the SDF and push for a decentralized, federalist Syria that ensures Kurdish and Druze regions remain outside the control of the HTS-led regime and ISIS. Establishing a security corridor linking the Druze region to the Kurdish region in Northeast Syria would isolate Syria's Sunni areas from Iraq's Sunni areas – both are the largest recruitment pools for ISIS in the world. This would further weaken the group's chances of resurgence.
The Kurds have proven themselves to be one of the most loyal partners of the West in the Middle East and their sacrifice has safeguarded both regional and global security. Therefore, defending the Kurds means defending Washington, D.C., London, Berlin, and Paris. The fall of the Kurdish autonomous region in Northeast Syria would lead to great chaos in the region with catastrophic consequences for U.S. interests and national security.
*Himdad Mustafa is special advisor to MEMRI's Kurdish Studies Project.