What happens if the moon takes a hit? Scientists brace for a possible asteroid collision
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is back in the spotlight. Discovered in late 2024 and initially feared to be heading for Earth, new tracking data has calmed those concerns. But scientists are not ready to relax just yet.There's still a 4 percent chance the asteroid could hit the Moon in 2032. That might sound low, but the consequences are worth paying attention to.A study still under peer review suggests that if 2024 YR4 strikes, it could leave a crater over half a mile wide and send chunks of lunar rock into orbit.The researchers warn this could pose real dangers to satellites and space missions. While the debris wouldn't endanger Earth directly, it could have knock-on effects above our heads.To put things in perspective, the asteroid is only 175 to 220 feet across. That's about the size of a 15-storey building. But size isn't the only thing that matters in space.
If it comes in fast and at the right angle, it could pack a serious punch.NASA's James Webb Space Telescope spotted the asteroid on 26 March 2025. It confirmed that 2024 YR4 has a rough, jagged surface and reflects more light than expected. According to Fox News, it's the smallest object the telescope has observed so far.Simulations suggest that if it does impact, it'll likely crash into the Moon's southern region. That's where the debris risk comes in.'Hundreds to thousands of impacts from mm-sized debris' could scatter across Earth's low orbit, the researchers wrote. That includes areas filled with active satellites and communication systems.Not all the debris would float harmlessly through space. Some could fall into Earth's atmosphere.'The resulting meteor shower could last a few days and be spectacular,' the study says. It would likely be visible to the naked eye, though less intense than typical meteor events because the debris would be moving slower.While that might sound exciting for skywatchers, the real risk lies in orbit. Satellites could be peppered by tiny fragments for weeks or even months. Damage could include minor surface hits or temporary outages. These effects might not be catastrophic, but they could disrupt services people rely on daily.NASA's Lunar Gateway, a planned space station that will orbit the Moon, could be a direct target of any flying debris if 2024 YR4 hits.The station isn't alone. Several future missions, including robotic and crewed Moon landings over the next decade, may also be in danger.The concern isn't new. As the study highlights, a similar debate erupted in 2021 after the uncontrolled re-entry of a Chinese Long March 5B rocket. That incident reignited questions about how we manage safety in orbit.
There are currently over 10,000 active satellites and at least 25,000 tracked pieces of space junk circling Earth. Add high-speed lunar debris into the mix, and the risk of collision rises sharply. When 2024 YR4 was first identified, it was thought to be heading for Earth. For a short time, it was given the highest rating ever on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. That's the system used to measure asteroid threats.By February 2025, scientists had ruled out an Earth impact. But the new trajectory pointed to the Moon instead.Images from NASA's Webb telescope show its surface littered with boulder-sized rocks, according to Fox Weather. That suggests the asteroid is more than just a smooth pebble in space. It has the potential to cause real disruption, even from hundreds of thousands of kilometres away.The researchers behind the study are from the University of Western Ontario and Athabasca University. They say we won't get better data until 2028, when the asteroid comes back into view.Until then, all anyone can do is wait, watch, and prepare.
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