John Mustard, Providence College Poised For Huge Season
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NBC Sports
an hour ago
- NBC Sports
After delaying their NFL dreams, No. 2 Penn State's stars are chasing an elusive national title
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — The longer Penn State quarterback Drew Allar weighed his options, the more he thought how sweet it would be to bring a national championship to Happy Valley. After No. 2 Penn State's down-to-the-wire loss to Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff semifinal last season, the allure of unfinished business outweighed professional prospects for the rocket-armed senior who'll lead one of college football's deepest and most experienced teams. 'I know how much better I want to be as a player and leave my mark on Penn State and obviously accomplish the thing that we came close to last year but came up short in,' Allar said. He'll be joined by 15 returning starters who won a program-best 13 games last season. Star running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and standout defensive linemen Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zane Durant also opted to delay their NFL careers to chase the program's first NCAA championship since 1986. Now in his 12th season, coach James Franklin understands the expectations of a fanbase weary of playing second-fiddle to Ohio State or Michigan year after year. 'We were a few points and a few drives away from playing for the National Championship and people were pissed,' Franklin said. 'That's what you sign up for when you come to Penn State, and so those expectations are always really high.' That's why Franklin signed Jim Knowles away from Ohio State after the veteran defensive coordinator helped lead the Buckeyes to last season's championship over Oregon, the team that edged Penn State in the Big Ten finale. 'When you look at all of our personnel, not just the players, but the staff and players, it's the best combination that we've had in my 12 years here,' Franklin said. 'The depth, the experience, the talent is impressive.' In the trenches The Nittany Lions are big and deep along the offensive and defensive lines. Sixth-year center Nick Dawkins will be flanked by guards Olaivavega Ioane and Drew Shelton while Anthony Donkoh and Nolan Rucci bookend as tackles. The group combined for 60 starts, helped generate 202 rushing yards per game and mostly kept Allar upright last season. Meanwhile, Dennis-Sutton and Durant combined for 24 of the defense's 119 tackles for loss and 11 1/2 of its 44 sacks. Through the air Second-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki wants to get more receivers involved. Penn State's leading wideout caught just 46 passes a year ago while star tight end Tyler Warren accounted for 106 catches. With Warren playing on Sundays now, Kotelnicki is looking for transfers Kyron Hudson (USC), Devonte Ross (Troy) and Trebor Peña (Syracuse) to help veteran Liam Clifford on the outside. Ross caught 129 balls for 1,618 yards and 14 touchdowns in three years for the Trojans. Peña had 84 of his 109 career catches for the Orange last fall and led the team with nine touchdowns. 'It's going to be really important coming out of the first three games that we feel like we really know what we have with those three guys and how we can use them,' Franklin said. Linebacker U With star linebacker Abdul Carter now a New York Giant, all eyes will be on junior Tony Rojas to lead Linebacker U's linebacker corps early. Knowles can't wait to watch him, especially considering Rojas sat out spring practice after having shoulder surgery. Yes, he was banged up for most of his coming out season where he tied for the team lead with three interceptions, was fifth in total tackles and added a sack. 'Very impressed,' Knowles said. 'He seems to have developed physically in the offseason. He's picked things up quickly which is tough to do when you don't get the reps on field.' The schedule The Nittany Lions have home games against Nevada (Aug. 30), Florida International (Sept. 6) and Villanova (Sept. 13) to start. They're idle before hosting Oregon on Sept. 27 in a rematch of last season's Big Ten championship game. Northwestern (Oct. 11), Indiana (Nov. 8) and Nebraska (Nov. 22) all visit Beaver Stadium while trips to UCLA (Oct. 4), Iowa (Oct. 18), Ohio State (Nov. 1), Michigan State (Nov. 15) and Rutgers (Nov. 29) await.
New York Times
5 hours ago
- New York Times
Our 2025 College Football Playoff predictions model is live. Here are 5 key takeaways
Can Ohio State defend its national championship or will Arch Manning and Texas walk into Columbus and put the college football world on notice in Week 1? Will James Franklin and Penn State follow the blueprint of their Big Ten rivals and give the conference its third national championship in a row behind a plethora of experience? These are among the most pressing questions as we head into the 2025 college football season, ones that my College Football Playoff predictor can help answer. Advertisement Just like last season, our College Football Playoff predictor, which launched Thursday and will be updated throughout the 2025 season, uses my College Football Projection Model to simulate the season 100,000 times to find out how likely each team is to win the national championship, win its conference championship and make the College Football Playoff, in addition to how many games it can be expected to win. My ratings are based on an offensive and defensive projection for every college football team using various metrics, such as Expected Points Added and Success Rate, and I also created an algorithm to predict which 12 teams the Playoff committee will choose based on more than a decade of committee decisions. (A full explanation of the methodology can be found at the bottom of our predictor.) Using these projections, let's take a look at some surprising outputs as well as some storylines about why the model's outputs are what they are. I'm not going to sit here and say Ohio State doesn't have question marks heading into the season. The Buckeyes replace both coordinators — offensive coordinator Chip Kelly joined the Las Vegas Raiders, and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles left for Big Ten rival Penn State — in addition to 14 NFL Draft picks. The turnover includes a new quarterback (Julian Sayin) and a new defensive line. But although Ohio State will have a drop-off at the coordinator positions, this is still one of the most talented teams in college football, and the model sends the Buckeyes to the Playoff 80.33 percent of the time (just barely ahead of Clemson by 0.04 percentage points) with a 14.3 percent chance to win the national title (edging Penn State). Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs might be the best offensive and defensive players in the country, respectively, and players of that caliber can make your life easier when it comes to overcoming inexperience. Having a player like Smith leading a deep group of receivers and tight ends will help Sayin adjust. Advertisement All in all, Ohio State has had the highest floor in college football over the past few decades, so reloading shouldn't be much of a problem. Factor in that its two toughest games — Texas and Penn State — will be played in Columbus, and Ohio State is well-positioned to return to the Playoff. After all, the Buckeyes have won at least 10 games in the regular season in 17 of their past 18 full seasons (excluding 2020). Our bracket features the teams with the best chance to make the Playoff and to win it all, and Ohio State remains atop in both categories. Clemson hasn't felt like a true national title contender in several years, one could argue in the NIL era (post-2021). Sure, the Tigers won the ACC last season and got into the Playoff, but they went 0-3 against the SEC and were never seen as a true championship threat. I think this year is different. Clemson has the second-highest odds to make the Playoff at 80.29 percent, per my projections, and is sixth in my team ratings. Cade Klubnik ranks No. 1 in The Athletic's preseason QB Tiers and is firmly in the Heisman race to kick off the season, and our NFL Draft expert Dane Brugler has four Tigers defensive players in his preseason top 50 prospects. That seems like the build of a team that is ready to get back to contending on the national stage. The Tigers will benefit from a weaker ACC, as they're projected to win the conference and secure an automatic bid just over 50 percent of the time — easily the highest Power 4 conference champion odds — but they also have a chance to make an early statement against LSU from the SEC in Week 1. The top five conference champions still get automatic bids, but the bracket is moving to a straight seeding format in which byes aren't reserved for league winners. SEC fans may notice that in my model's projected bracket that no team from the SEC is one of the top four teams in the country, which means no first-round bye in the Playoff. Some additional context here is needed. Advertisement The SEC has four teams in the projected Playoff, all seeded No. 5 through No. 9, as well as two teams on the bubble. It's ranked as the toughest conference in my model. Why doesn't it have a bye here? The issue is that the conference is too good, and the selection process really values records. The gripes from the SEC about strength of schedule not being valued enough are fair. If there is any indication through the committee's rankings in November that they're starting to value strength of schedule more — one day this will happen, maybe as soon as this season based on announced changes — then I will tweak my Playoff algorithm to reflect that. But for now, the SEC's depth, with nine teams boasting at least a 10 percent chance of a Playoff bid, makes it a greater challenge for any one team to get a bye, especially in the model's preseason projections. There are eight teams in my projections that have a greater than 64 percent chance of making the Playoff. The next team is Boise State at 50 percent, followed by a drop to 39 percent with LSU. Those 10 teams are followed by 20 teams with anywhere from a 10 to 38 percent chance to make the Playoff. So while I'm not entirely convinced that Michigan (34 percent) is truly the first team out on the bubble, just below last-team-in Miami, it has a favorable enough schedule (no Penn State, no Oregon, plus Ohio State at home) to give it a chance. I do believe that the transfer portal and NIL/revenue sharing have given us more parity in college football, but that might show up more in how the 12-team bracket is filled out — see Indiana making the Playoff last year — rather than who wins the championship. I agree with my model that 85 percent of the time the national champion is coming from the top seven teams. Just about every Group of 5 conversation starts with Boise State. The Broncos have been the most recognizable brand outside of the power conferences for two decades now. Last year, they played their way to the No. 3 seed in the College Football Playoff, but losing Heisman runner-up running back Ashton Jeanty is a major blow. So can Boise State hold onto the top spot and get another automatic bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions? My model believes the Broncos will do it, as they have a 50 percent chance to make the Playoff heading into the season. The next highest-ranked Group of 5 team is Tulane at 12 percent, and I'm not sure I want to back the Green Wave after needing to go into the portal for quarterbacks post-spring. In fact, my model projects Boise State to be about four points better than Tulane. The fact of the matter is that the Group of 5 has become weaker since the transfer portal era began. And yet Boise State has bucked that trend (just look at the fact that it held onto Jeanty last season). Though an Oct. 4 road trip to Notre Dame will be difficult, Boise State is projected to be a double-digit favorite in every Mountain West game this season before joining the revamped Pac-12 in 2026. Maybe the Broncos wouldn't be as fortunate in The American, as my model projects that to be the best G5 conference, but Boise State remains the standard outside the Power 4. Keep checking the College Football Playoff predictor page for regular updates throughout the season, all the way through the national championship game. (Photo of Jeremiah Smith: Harry How / Getty Images) Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
Associated Press
5 hours ago
- Associated Press
Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman is using past lessons to propel No. 6 Irish forward in 2025
Marcus Freeman used some of the tough lessons he learned his first two years as Notre Dame's coach to help him navigate the longest season in the FBS' modern era. It's prepared him for what's next — taking the same script and rewriting the ending. Seven months after losing the national championship game to his alma mater, Ohio State, the 39-year-old Freeman returns for his fourth season trying to balance the usually lofty expectations for No. 6 Notre Dame with the reality that the Fighting Irish must start fresh. 'There's valuable lessons we learned last year, but I continue to remind them that 2024 has nothing to do with this 2025 team,' Freeman said when summer camp opened. 'So let's utilize those lessons, some of those good and bad things we learned last year. But they understand we've stopped talking about 2024.' A quick glance at the roster and coaching staff reinforces Freeman's point. He hired longtime defensive coordinator Chris Ash, the former Rutgers coach, when Al Golden left for the NFL. He found two key receivers, Malachi Fields and Will Pauling, in the transfer portal. And with quarterback Riley Leonard now playing for the Indianapolis Colts, Freeman chose CJ Carr — who made one appearance for the Fighting Irish during last season's run to the national championship game but has not thrown a college pass — to be the starting quarterback over Kenny Minchey. In other spots, things look comfortingly familiar. Preseason All-American running back Jeremiyah Love is running behind a big offensive line with two returning starters and many more experienced players. Defensively, five starters from the championship game return, three in the secondary. That means Notre Dame's players and coaches can put that knowledge to use, even as Freeman turns the page on his most successful season with the Irish. 'There's a lot of guys on this roster, in this program — coaches and players — that weren't here last year,' Freeman said. 'This is about the 2025 team and the journey to reach our full potential.' Key transfers Fields was a third team all-ACC selection at Virginia while Pauling was a key cog as a 10-game starter at Wisconsin last season Freeman also found other help in the portal. Former Arkansas tight end Ty Washington could see more action than expected because of injuries. Former Alabama cornerback DeVonta Smith is expected to start in the secondary, former Southern California defensive lineman Elijah Hughes could be a rotational player and former North Carolina kicker Noah Burnette could solidify one of last season's worst field goal units. Injury report Promising pass rusher Boubacar Traore looks like he'll be ready for the Aug. 31 opener at No. 10 Miami. He missed most of last year with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. Freeman expects two other players — offensive lineman Charles Jagusah and tight end Cooper Flanagan — to come back this season, too. Flanagan suffered an Achilles tendon injury in the CFP quarterfinal victory over Georgia. Jagusah was supposed to start at right guard or left tackle after missing most of 2024 with a torn pectoral muscle. But he fractured the humerus bone in his left arm in a July utility task vehicle accident in Wyoming. Sullivan Absher has taken Jagusah's place in camp. Quick hitters Notre Dame lists 22 defensive lineman on its roster. ... Tight end Eli Raridon returns for his senior season as a married man. ... Sixth-year tight end Kevin Bauman announced his career is over after suffering a season-ending knee injury. The schedule Notre Dame's big tests come early. In addition to the Sunday night opener against the 'Canes, Notre Dame hosts No. 19 Texas A&M in another prime-time game following a Week 2 bye. The Irish also visit Arkansas on Sept. 27 and host No. 25 Boise State on Oct. 4 and have a bevy of rivalry games with Purdue, Southern Cal and Navy. ___ Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: and
