Now past an anticlimactic deadline, the Red Sox look ahead

Boston Globe

5 days ago

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'I think we got better,' said Sox manager Alex Cora, who'd suggested past post-All-Star-break struggles reflected the team's deadline caution. 'I think the team is a lot different than the last three. We're more complete, we pitched better, our bullpen is in a great place.'
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Red Sox manager Alex Cora feels the additions made by the front office recently have made his ballclub "more complete."
Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff
Shortstop Trevor Story added: 'You're always looking for the big, exciting blockbuster. But I think the sentiment with us is we're more happy that we kind of stuck our core together. We still have all the main pieces here still, and we just added to that group. So more about us feeling like the guys in the room got us here, and we know that we're capable.'
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That said, there's also no sugar-coating the reality of what transpired leading up to the deadline. The Sox aimed higher. They wanted Ryan but couldn't get him. They wanted an offensive upgrade, but didn't land one. (Orioles first baseman Ryan O'Hearn had been on their wishlist, but was part of the Padres' push to acquire what seemed like every player.)
Meanwhile, the Sox made fewer and arguably smaller moves than any of the seven top AL contenders — division leaders Toronto, Detroit, and Houston; followed by the tightly clustered group of the Yankees, Boston, Seattle, and Texas.
The Yankees (loading up on bullpen arms) and Tigers (adding rotation and bullpen depth) each added seven big league players in the week leading up to the deadline. The Mariners (who turbocharged their offense with Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor), Astros (Carlos Correa), and Rangers (Merrill Kelly — the top starter to move) each added three. The Blue Jays (Shane Bieber —a a bit of a wild card as he builds back up from Tommy John surgery, but with the potential to pitch in the middle of a postseason rotation) and Sox had two.
Based on the trades that were and weren't made, it seems evident that the Sox are more conservative about deadline deals than their competitors — particularly deals for rentals. The Rangers' acquisition of Kelly for three well-regarded prospects was illustrative. Texas thus landed a pitcher who seems all but certain to be a postseason starter if the Rangers get to the playoffs; there are no such guarantees with May.
The biggest impact move the Red Sox made Thursday was adding righthanded starter Dustin May from the Dodgers.
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Even so, it's possible to exaggerate the impact of the deadline. As much attention as July 31 comings and goings get, postseason chases are more meaningfully defined by mainstays. Still, it's fascinating to note the movement of postseason odds before and after the deadline movement.
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The Mariners broke the seal by landing Naylor on July 24. According to Fangraphs, their playoff odds went from 71 percent on the morning of July 23 to 76 percent on August 1, the morning after the deadline. Their World Series odds went up from 5 to 7 percent. Between their strong play and deadline moves, the Rangers' postseason odds went from 32 percent to 40 percent.
As for the Sox? They jumped from 43 percent odds of reaching the postseason on the morning of July 23 to 62 percent on August 1 — a 19 percent increase that is the largest in the AL in that time, and a reflection of how a stretch of five wins in seven games had impacted their chances of playing in October.
'I guess [this year's deadline is similar to last year's] in a way,' said Story, 'but I think just the way we've been playing and how we've been doing it is different, so we're not sad that we should have added more or harping on what could have been. The guys that are going to get it done are going to be the guys that we have now.
'We've been doubted kind of all year, and so [skepticism about the team's deadline] is going to be one of those things that we continue to call on for motivation. We really do believe that we can get it done. And we added two more guys to help us with that.'
Now, everything related to the machinations of the deadline becomes irrelevant. It's up to the players to prove whether or not the roster as currently constituted is enough to get the team into the playoffs for the first time since 2021.
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'It's Aug. 1. Everything [with the deadline] is in the past,' said Cora. 'We've got a shot to make something special here this year in the Wild Card, in the division. You look at the Green Monster, we're in third place, five games back, so we feel like we can compete with anybody, and we've got a real shot to win the division.'
Time, and the performance of the roster holdovers, will tell.
Alex Speier can be reached at