Grim figures reveal scale of problem with Wales' 'economically inactive'
The number of people in Wales not seeking work and deemed economically inactive would fill the Principality Stadium nearly seven times over. Wales also has the lowest employment rate of any UK nation or region.
Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows the unemployment rate from November to January in Wales fell marginally by 0.1% on the previous quarter, but at 5.4% remains higher than the rate for the UK as a whole of 4.4%. While the ONS' Labour Force Survey does come with a question mark as it moves to a more robust surveying model, of the nations and regions of the UK, only in London (6.3%) was the unemployment higher than the 5.4% in Wales.
The latest quarterly figures also show Wales having the lowest employment rate of working age adults of any UK nation or region at just 69.9%, compared to a UK average of 75%. Of working age adults, Wales has an economic inactivity rate of 26%, compared to 21.5% for the UK as a whole. It was only higher in the north east of England (26.1%) and Northern Ireland 26.6%. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here
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The number of economically inactive, defined as people not seeking employment and which includes those on long-term sick and students. stands at 503,000. While up on the quarter by 15,000, it was down 14,000 on the year.
Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Energy, Samuel Kurtz MS said: "It is no surprise that our economy is struggling, as Wales is in desperate need of a new economic policy. Rather than the jobs first approach that Wales urgently requires, we find ourselves in the unfortunate position of facing punitive taxation on individuals and businesses at both ends of the M4.
"The UK Labour government's emergency budget next week must ease the burden on Welsh businesses to unlock economic growth. Rachel Reeves' jobs tax and family farm tax must be scrapped to restore much-needed confidence in our economy. Alongside this, Welsh Labour's excessive business rates, the highest in the United Kingdom with lower relief, and their impending toxic tourism tax cast an even darker economic shadow over businesses in Wales."
The ONS said regular average wages growth was unchanged at 5.9% in the three months to January, staying at the highest level since the three months to April last year. Wages outstripped Consumer Prices Index inflation by 3.2%, the ONS added. In an encouraging sign, the ONS said vacancies rose by 1,000 to 816,000 in the three months to February, which is the first rise since the quarter to June, 2022.
There was also some optimism in the real-time payroll figures, showing 21,000 more workers on UK payrolls last month to 30.4 million, after increasing by a downwardly-revised 9,000 in January. Warnings from firms are mounting over job losses and price rises due to the incoming increase in national insurance contributions and the minimum wage rise due to take effect next month. Official figures last week also showed the economy contracted by 0.1% in January.
Paige Tao, economist at PwC UK, said the recent economic indicators signalled the UK economy remains 'in 'wait-and-see' mode'. She added: 'Today's release (ONS) provides little respite for the Chancellor as she faces growing pressure ahead of her Spring Statement. Confidence needs a boost, and businesses will be watching carefully, with hiring and investment seemingly still on ice.'
Elliott Jordan-Doak at Pantheon Macroeconomics said the jobs market was 'holding up despite terrible mood music from firms and has improved in the past two months'. But he said there were also signs of 'some cracks appearing', with redundancies rising for the first time in a year, to 124,000 (UK) in the three months to January.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall insisted the figures 'demonstrate the scale of the challenge we're still facing to get Britain working again'. She added: 'The reforms I have announced will ensure everyone who can work gets the active support they need."
The Welsh Government said it would not be commenting on ONS' Labour Force Survey data whilst warnings around them remained in place.
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