'A question of when, not if': What happens if Australia recognises a Palestinian state?
On Wednesday, several frontbenchers, including Anika Wells and Julian Hill, said it was "a question of when, not if".
Ben Saul, United Nations special rapporteur on human rights and counterterrorism, said growing calls are the result of two years of international law violations by Israel. "I think it indicates the growing impatience of the international community with Israel's failure to support the conditions necessary for a Palestinian state," he told SBS News. The Coalition argues recognition of a Palestinian state needs to come at the end of a peace process. "We're worried he's putting the cart before the horse. We need a peace agreement, we need to see the hostages released, we need to see Hamas dismantled. Hamas cannot be part of a Palestinian state," Opposition defence spokesperson Angus Taylor said.
So what would recognition mean in practice, including for the people of Gaza?
The significance of recognising a Palestinian state Professor Shahram Akbarzadeh, director of the Middle East Studies Forum at Deakin University, says Australia recognising a Palestinian state would send a strong message to the United States that the "global dynamic is changing". In April 2024, the United States vetoed a resolution that would have granted Palestine's bid to become a full member of the United Nations.
He told SBS News that the US needs to "exert its leadership role and exert pressure on Israel to push along the two-state solution".
Akbarzadeh argues that "international sympathy for Israel after October 7" has turned into "international sense of disbelief that any state could behave this way", resulting in the likes of the UK and France changing their policies. "To put a total population under military control, blockading a total population and depriving them of food, of medicine, of water. It is a sense of global disbelief."
Israeli officials, including its embassy in Canberra, deny that starvation is occurring in the Gaza Strip, stating reports of the deaths of malnourished children are a "false campaign" from Hamas.
Saul said Palestinian statehood is not entirely dependent on the United States as long as international law criteria is met, including a population, a territory and an effective independent government. On Wednesday, Australia joined 14 other nations and signed a joint statement committing to a pathway for Palestinian statehood.
It includes the Palestinian Authority's calls for the disarmament of Hamas, release of all remaining hostages, and the undertaking of elections within a year.
The vote represented a shift in position after abstaining on similar motions for two decades, and Labor ministers said it was an important step towards a two-state solution.
What are the practical implications? Beyond symbolism, Saul said Palestinians are legally entitled to having their a state under international law, labelling recognition "a win-win" which would allow Australia "full-blown diplomatic relations with Palestine".
"It also means Palestine gets certain rights under Australian domestic law as well, in terms of diplomatic and state immunities of Palestinian officials," Saul said.
However, Shahram says practical consequences are "quite limited" until the UN Security Council allows Palestine to become a full member. These full member benefits include having its armed forces under the protection of a state, conducting diplomacy, establishing relations with other countries like trade ties and mounting legal claims against Israel in all international bodies under state sovereignty.
"But legal sovereignty is managed and basically curtailed by the political power and military power of the United States and Israel, so that the reality of power overrides the legality of the future Palestinian state," he said.
What is the impact on Palestinians in Gaza? Akbarzadeh said Palestinian statehood opens up "prospects for future recovery and reconstruction". "The impact on the daily life of Gazans is nothing because Gaza is still under military occupation and blockaded by Israel," he said. While the opening up of borders to allow food and medicine aids the starving population, Akbarzadeh argues, "you want to give them [Palestinians] hope".
"You want to give Palestinians an avenue for self-expression and autonomy. So that's when statehood and sovereignty come in. The two are related, but recognising Palestinian sovereignty does not give Palestinians in Gaza food," he said.
Saul agrees that statehood won't fix the "humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza", stating only Israel can offer a solution that includes allowing the flow of humanitarian aid. "Israel has to respect its obligations under humanitarian law. It has to respect human rights law," he said.
He highlighted that countries supporting Israel, like the United States and Germany, have to respect their obligations too.
Two-year-old Yazan Abu Foul with his mother Naima. Yazan suffers from severe malnutrition due to the acute shortage of food caused by the blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip and the closure of border crossings. Source: EPA / Haitham Imad "Obligations under international law is not to transfer weapons or ammunition to a country that would use them to commit war crimes," Saul added.
Where do other Western nations stand Overnight, the UK warned Israel it would follow France, and more than 140 United Nations members, to recognise Palestinian statehood, unless it takes immediate action to relieve suffering in Gaza. Germany said on Friday it was not planning to recognise Palestinian statehood in the short term; rather, its priority was to make "long-overdue progress" towards a two-state solution — Israel and a Palestinian state co-existing in peace.
Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Saturday that recognising the State of Palestine before it is established could be counterproductive.
Last year, Ireland, Norway and Spain recognised a Palestinian state with its borders to be demarcated as they were before the 1967 Middle East war, when Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. However, they also recognised that those borders may change in any eventual talks to reach a final settlement, and that their decisions did not diminish their belief in Israel's fundamental right to exist in peace and security.
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