Russian central bank sees oil prices stabilizing at $60 per barrel
MOSCOW, May 12 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank sees oil prices stabilizing at $60 per barrel going forward as it expects global demand to rebound as trade restrictions ease, the bank said in minutes of its April 25 board meeting, published on Monday.
The central bank kept its key interest rate on hold at 21% at the meeting in April. The minutes, which are published about two weeks after each board meeting, provide insight into the factors that influenced the decision.
"Global demand will recover as trade restrictions and tariffs are reduced, and as a result of government support measures being implemented," the bank said.
Brent crude LCOc1 futures jumped $2.43, or 3.8%, on Monday to $66.34 a barrel after the U.S. and China said they would ease some of their tariff measures, raising hopes of an end to the trade war between the world's two largest consumers of crude oil.
The oil price has fallen by about 20% from a 2025 peak of $82 per barrel reached on January 15.
The central bank said that the impact on Russia's economy of new trade tariffs in the world economy is seen as limited, mainly expressed through lower global oil prices. However, it warned that the risks of a further escalation of global trade wars are significant.
"Prolonged enforcement of restrictions may affect the dynamics of oil prices," the central bank said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Guardian
5 minutes ago
- The Guardian
UK unemployment rises to highest level in nearly four years
Unemployment in the UK rose in April to the highest level in almost four years, official figures showed, as tax increases introduced by Rachel Reeves added to a broader slowdown in the jobs market. In a blow for the chancellor before Wednesday's spending review, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the jobless rate increased to 4.6% in the three months to the end of April, up from 4.5% on the previous three-month period to hit the highest level since summer 2021. Annual growth in regular wages also slowed to 5.2%, below City economists forecasts for a reading of 5.3%. Liz McKeown, the ONS director of economic statistics, said: 'There continues to be weakening in the labour market, with the number of people on payroll falling notably. Feedback from our vacancies survey suggests some firms may be holding back from recruiting new workers or replacing people when they move on. 'Earnings growth has slowed in both cash and real terms, though it remains strong by historic standards. Public sector pay is now growing at a higher rate than wages in the private sector.' Unemployment is measured using the ONS's widely criticised labour force survey, which has suffered from collapsing response rates. Experts have argued this leaves policymakers 'flying blind', with the prospect that decisions are being taken based on flawed data. However, separate figures showed the number of workers on UK company payrolls collapsed at the fastest rate since the height of the Covid pandemic, with a monthly drop of 109,000 in May. Vacancies also fell by 63,000 over the three months to the end of May. The latest figures give the first indication of the impact of April's £25bn rise in employer national insurance contributions (NICs), affecting almost 1m businesses, as well as a 6.7% rise in the national living wage. Suren Thiru, the economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said: 'These figures suggest that the UK's jobs market took a damaging hit from 'Awful April', with the tough reality of sharply rising NICs and national living wage costs pushing more employers to cut staff. 'The UK's labour market is in a painful period with eye-wateringly high business costs likely to mean more job losses this year, particularly if the spending review increases the odds of more tax hikes in the autumn budget.' Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion Businesses in typically lower-paying sectors, including hospitality, leisure and retail, had warned jobs could be hit. It comes as the Bank of England monitors the jobs market for signs of weaker conditions as policymakers consider whether to cut interest rates further after four earlier reductions in borrowing costs to 4.25%. Threadneedle Street is widely expected to keep rates on hold next week amid heightened uncertainty over the impact of Donald Trump's increasingly erratic trade wars on the world economy. Alison McGovern, the employment minister, said the government was putting in place more help for jobseekers. 'Supporting more people into work and putting more money in the pockets of working people is at the heart of our plan for change,' she said.
The Independent
8 minutes ago
- The Independent
Unemployment rate surges to highest since 2021 as wage growth eases sharply
Britain 's unemployment rate has hit its highest level in almost four years, according to official figures, while wage growth has eased more than anticipated as employers grapple with rising staff costs. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that average regular earnings, excluding bonuses, fell to 5.2 per cent in the three months to April, a sharp decrease from 5.5 per cent in the previous three months. This is the lowest rate since the third quarter of last year. Although wage growth continues to outpace inflation, up by 2.1 per cent with Consumer Prices Index inflation taken into account, the figure fell short of expectations, with most experts having predicted a decrease to 5.3 per cent. The rate of unemployment also jumped to 4.6 per cent in the three months to April, up from 4.5 per cent in the three months to March and the highest level since the three months to July 2021. The figures also showed vacancies tumbled by 63,000 to 736,000 in the three months to May, while payroll data revealed the biggest drop for five years last month, down 109,000 to 30.2 million. It coincided with firms facing a hike in national insurance contributions in April, which had been announced in October's budget. Liz McKeown, ONS director of economic statistics, said: 'There continues to be weakening in the labour market, with the number of people on payroll falling notably. 'Feedback from our vacancies survey suggests some firms may be holding back from recruiting new workers or replacing people when they move on.'
Times
13 minutes ago
- Times
Reeves forced into U-turn over pensioner fuel payments
The U-turn, when it came, was even bigger than expected. Rachel Reeves decided to clear the decks before the spending review by announcing that nine million pensioners would receive winter fuel payments this winter. It was a move born of political necessity and that has little fiscal logic. When the chancellor announced that she was stripping ten million pensioners of the winter fuel allowance next year, she argued that it was fundamental to restoring economic stability. 'This is not a decision I wanted to make,' she said. 'Nor is it one that I expected to make. But these are the necessary and urgent decisions I must make. It is the responsible thing to do to fix the foundations of our economy and bring back economic stability.' On Tuesday, economists point out that the fiscal circumstances are, if anything, significantly worse. The reversal means that a policy intended to save £1.5 billion will now save only £50 million this year, at the expense of huge reserves of public goodwill and political capital. It will only add to pressure on the already ailing public finances. Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the decision meant there would have to be tax rises or more cuts to welfare in the autumn budget. 'To suggest the fiscal situation has got a lot better flies in the face of reality,' he said. 'If they are saying this means there will not be any additional borrowing then it follows, as sure as night follows day, that this will mean they will need to raise the equivalent of an additional amount of tax.' It also means that Reeves has crossed another line. She had insisted that she would never make an unfunded spending pledge, arguing that to do so would be 'desperate and reckless'. That is exactly what she has now done, and the detail of how the about-turn will be paid for will be confirmed in the autumn budget. After the announcement on Monday, Reeves found herself trying to argue that she had been right in scrapping the universal payments in the first place while simultaneously trying to justify the change in position. It was not an easy circle to square. The decision was the result of a recognition in both No 10 and No 11 that cutting the allowance had been a mistake, although Reeves would not acknowledge that on Monday. During the local elections in May, Labour activists found the issue of winter fuel coming up again and again on the doorstep. Polling found that the decision was one of the main reasons voters deserted the party, whether they moved to Reform UK or to the Greens. • What to expect in Rachel Reeves's spend, spend, spending review Discussion about a reversal began in No 10 almost immediately, but was denied for weeks by the government. By the time Sir Keir Starmer was confronted over the 'toxic' policy by a succession of angry MPs at a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party three weeks ago, it was clear that the position was beginning to shift. However, concern that there was a lack of detail about what would replace the previous policy quickly made clear that the government could not wait long before setting out a replacement. Ministers were determined to introduce a means test to avoid paying 'a few hundred pounds to millionaires', and officials struggled to graft one on to ageing computer systems in the Department for Work and Pensions. Eventually, it became clear that HM Revenue & Customs would have to be used, clawing payments back from wealthier pensioners through the tax system. This meant that a wish to base payments on household incomes had to be abandoned, as the system assesses only individual incomes. Ministers picked a relatively high income, covering three quarters of pensioners, to make sure that no older people in poverty would lose out even at the cost of hundreds of millions of pounds. Theoretically, this means that the pensioner partner of a millionaire will receive a winter fuel payment of £100 if they have an income below £35,000 themselves, but ministers decided that this was a price worth paying for a rapid solution. For ministers who have spent months defending hugely unpopular cuts, there has been frustration about how much political capital was wasted for such tiny sums of money. • Rachel Reeves's winter fuel cut reversal is a sign of desperation Much of the blame is being pinned on Reeves. It was she who chose to press ahead with a cut long recommended by Treasury advisers but rejected as politically toxic by a succession of previous chancellors. Starmer nodded the decision through, however, despite the clear risk of a severe political backlash. He is said to have been surprised by the scale of the reaction. Ministers will be hoping that the turnaround is enough to quell public anger, which led Labour to slump in the polls. Sharon Graham, head of the Unite union, one of Labour's biggest donors, put it bluntly. 'While this is an important step forward, questions will be asked about how this disastrous decision was made in the first place — the damage may not easily be reversed,' she said. 'Leadership is about choices and the choice to pit workers against pensioners was simply wrong.'
