Jane's weather: Rain system with Sydney and much of the NSW on its radar
Tropical moisture is fed into low pressure and turned into widespread rain - for those in the path of the low pressure.
The most recent system was huge, affecting every Australian state and territory, because the low crossed the Great Australian Bight near the coast and had a cold front stretching up into northern Australia, ensuring rain fell across a huge swathe of land.
As always, there are some spots that miss out and the path of this one meant that it was from Melbourne through to Sydney, if you were taking the coastal route.
Conversely, the Hume Freeway did extremely well, with falls over 50mm for much of the journey.
The next weather system delivered in the west early in the week, then took a path over South Australia and New South Wales. This part was a nice follow up, but nothing significant.
While the low pressure part disappears off the east coast, it does leave behind a pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere.
This is the energy needed for the next low to form, and the weather pattern has decided that just off the northern NSW coast is the right spot for that low.
Coastal lows can pack a punch, as we saw recently with the headlines that screamed Rain Bomb. That particular low developed quickly and deeply enough to undergo what is known as 'bombogenesis', while this upcoming one isn't likely to be quite as severe.
We'll still see a lot of rain, with falls over 100mm highly likely along parts of the NSW coast and adjacent inland to the ranges. The winds strengthen too, especially on the weekend when the low is at its deepest, but may fall just short of widespread damaging gusts.
Conditions ease early next week after the next big weather system crosses the west on the weekend. While this is occurring the southeast (away from the NSW coast) takes a break under high pressure. That high is likely to 'get in the way' of the next big system approaching from the west, blocking most of that rain early next week.
Then a new feed of moisture from the Indian Ocean could develop mid next week. Another juicy, northwest cloudband. One to watch to see what path it takes and which areas see the next significant rain.
Why are we seeing all these feeds of tropical moisture? Earlier this week the Indian Ocean crossed the threshold into a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
A significant milestone for Australia's weather, and a sign that more rain systems are on the horizon.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
7NEWS
16 hours ago
- 7NEWS
Rain intensifies in both Queensland, NSW and the west as we head into the weekend
There are two major weather systems brewing - one on either side of the country. Let's start with the eastern one, which will be another significant rain system for Queensland, particularly in the southeast near the coast. If you are in between Brisbane and Mackay, please keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings, as a low develops off the coast, fed by tropical moisture, resulting in heavy rain. The rain should start to spread across much of Queensland and northern NSW during the day on Friday. A nice drop from this one, rather than widespread intense rain. The activity intensifies on Saturday along the coast with modelling suggesting widespread falls of 25mm to 100mm. Locally up to 300mm in the most affected area near the low, which is currently between Maryborough and Yeppoon. This one is relatively fast though, with the weather rapidly easing again on Sunday. High pressure brings a dry weekend to the southeast, but in the west of the country we have the next big system move through. Again this will have a good feed of moisture from the tropics - the Indian Ocean - ensuring that the rainband that moves through with the gusty cold front is moisture-laden and brings 25mm to 50mm to the southwest corner, before slowly decreasing as you head inland. This is a strong cold front, and will be accompanied by the usual wind threats. Most of this is felt later Saturday into Sunday. These are ongoing examples of weather systems meeting up with tropical moisture to bring heavier than usual rain for those in the path of the low, trough or front. The global patterns in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans tell us when this injection of moisture is more likely - when we are in a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) or a La Nina. Put simply, a Negative IOD is the Indian Ocean equivalent of La Nina, just without the fancy name. They both act to push extra moisture towards Australia. We crossed the threshold into a Negative IOD about a week and a half ago, and remain there this week. Most forecasts have us remaining below that threshold for the next month or two. If we remain there for about eight weeks in total it will officially be a Negative IOD. The Pacific Ocean has weak signs of heading towards that negative threshold too - ie a La Nina. It is one to watch to see if we have both oceans enhancing our moisture over the next few months. It won't ensure rain for all though - only those in the path of the lows.
The Advertiser
2 days ago
- The Advertiser
Flood, fire, erosion: How do we protect ourselves against future disaster?
Once we were comforted by the sound of rain on a tin roof, today we hope the rain lasts just long enough to replenish the soils and water courses and doesn't become too heavy or last too long to cause another flood. Record-breaking floods have arrived with an unwelcome regularity in our region, starting in 2020, then again in 2021 and 2022 and now for centres like Taree, a record flood in May 2025. These flood events followed the devastation of the Black Summer bushfires of 2019/20, creating a pattern of natural disasters that appear to be increasing in frequency, taking an ever-growing financial and emotional toll on our communities and raising questions about building resiliency. The financial costs are staggering, with the Federal and NSW governments having spent $9.5 billion on disaster relief and recovery since the summer of 2019, and that does not include the funding for the D classification disaster relief package announced for Mid North Coast and Hunter farmers. In June's State budget, Treasurer Daniel Mookhey set aside $4.2b in disaster relief across the forward estimates, a figure that is likely to increase in response to both previous and potentially new natural disasters. NSW Treasury has projected that the cost of natural disasters would reach $24b/year by 2070-71 due to climate change. Since the 2019-20 bushfires, disaster relief and recovery across the State has increased by more than 1,000 per cent compared to the six years prior to 2019-20. On top of that are the insurance claims estimated to be $200m for the May 2025 floods, based on 6000 claims, of which 80 per cent are for damaged homes. The Climate Change Authority has reported that millions of Australian homes are facing escalating risks from natural hazards, which are growing more intense due to climate change. Bushfires, cyclones and floods are currently costing Australian homeowners around $4 billion a year in cleanup and recovery costs. These costs are estimated to grow to about $8.7 billion a year by 2050. "Climate change is projected to wipe over $500 billion off the Australian property market by 2030," according to the Authority. The question for our communities is how best to build sustainable, safe communities in a changing climate? So what about solutions? The Planning Institute of Australia (PIA), the national body representing the planning profession, has been working on three basic messages, which they say are essential to build community resilience and reduce future risk. PIA is supported by the Insurance Council and is advocating for strengthening the capacity of all tiers of Government to plan, invest and act by: "Planning is at the heart of building more resilient communities," PIA CEO Matt Collins said. "With clear strategies, good data and targeted investment, we can deliver better-located housing and reduce future risk. "Where we live-and how we plan for it-will determine how well we cope with the challenges of a changing climate. We need to act now." The Institute's national policy director, John Brockhoff, said that to achieve the best planning outcomes, we have to listen to communities, assess their appetite for risk and have them discuss planning outcomes in collaboration with emergency services like the SES and RFS. "We should empower communities to be involved in the planning processes," he said. On the PIA's first message - no new homes in harm's way. Such a policy may require state government legislation so that council planning decisions are not overturned in court. Changes to building standards have already been adopted in flood-prone areas like Lismore and Brisbane, especially on recovery work in homes. And it is also being adopted when it comes to rebuilding damaged infrastructure, such as stronger higher bridges. But Mr Brockhoff said the most difficult message is, the last, the planning of retreat and voluntary relocation. "Those questions are hard. Public funds have to be made available for this option, and the community has to work out where they can relocate to, " he said. It has been done before - in 1916, the town of Clermont in Queensland was moved to higher ground after a devastating flood hit the community when 21 inches fell in a matter of hours in late December of that year. And more recently, also in Queensland, in the Lockyer Valley, after the January 2011 flood, the town of Grantham was relocated to higher ground. There are currently buy-backs underway in Lismore following the 2022 floods. Mr Brockhoff said the Institute would also continue to campaign for more accurate flood modelling and a national approach to flood adaptation planning. Once we were comforted by the sound of rain on a tin roof, today we hope the rain lasts just long enough to replenish the soils and water courses and doesn't become too heavy or last too long to cause another flood. Record-breaking floods have arrived with an unwelcome regularity in our region, starting in 2020, then again in 2021 and 2022 and now for centres like Taree, a record flood in May 2025. These flood events followed the devastation of the Black Summer bushfires of 2019/20, creating a pattern of natural disasters that appear to be increasing in frequency, taking an ever-growing financial and emotional toll on our communities and raising questions about building resiliency. The financial costs are staggering, with the Federal and NSW governments having spent $9.5 billion on disaster relief and recovery since the summer of 2019, and that does not include the funding for the D classification disaster relief package announced for Mid North Coast and Hunter farmers. In June's State budget, Treasurer Daniel Mookhey set aside $4.2b in disaster relief across the forward estimates, a figure that is likely to increase in response to both previous and potentially new natural disasters. NSW Treasury has projected that the cost of natural disasters would reach $24b/year by 2070-71 due to climate change. Since the 2019-20 bushfires, disaster relief and recovery across the State has increased by more than 1,000 per cent compared to the six years prior to 2019-20. On top of that are the insurance claims estimated to be $200m for the May 2025 floods, based on 6000 claims, of which 80 per cent are for damaged homes. The Climate Change Authority has reported that millions of Australian homes are facing escalating risks from natural hazards, which are growing more intense due to climate change. Bushfires, cyclones and floods are currently costing Australian homeowners around $4 billion a year in cleanup and recovery costs. These costs are estimated to grow to about $8.7 billion a year by 2050. "Climate change is projected to wipe over $500 billion off the Australian property market by 2030," according to the Authority. The question for our communities is how best to build sustainable, safe communities in a changing climate? So what about solutions? The Planning Institute of Australia (PIA), the national body representing the planning profession, has been working on three basic messages, which they say are essential to build community resilience and reduce future risk. PIA is supported by the Insurance Council and is advocating for strengthening the capacity of all tiers of Government to plan, invest and act by: "Planning is at the heart of building more resilient communities," PIA CEO Matt Collins said. "With clear strategies, good data and targeted investment, we can deliver better-located housing and reduce future risk. "Where we live-and how we plan for it-will determine how well we cope with the challenges of a changing climate. We need to act now." The Institute's national policy director, John Brockhoff, said that to achieve the best planning outcomes, we have to listen to communities, assess their appetite for risk and have them discuss planning outcomes in collaboration with emergency services like the SES and RFS. "We should empower communities to be involved in the planning processes," he said. On the PIA's first message - no new homes in harm's way. Such a policy may require state government legislation so that council planning decisions are not overturned in court. Changes to building standards have already been adopted in flood-prone areas like Lismore and Brisbane, especially on recovery work in homes. And it is also being adopted when it comes to rebuilding damaged infrastructure, such as stronger higher bridges. But Mr Brockhoff said the most difficult message is, the last, the planning of retreat and voluntary relocation. "Those questions are hard. Public funds have to be made available for this option, and the community has to work out where they can relocate to, " he said. It has been done before - in 1916, the town of Clermont in Queensland was moved to higher ground after a devastating flood hit the community when 21 inches fell in a matter of hours in late December of that year. And more recently, also in Queensland, in the Lockyer Valley, after the January 2011 flood, the town of Grantham was relocated to higher ground. There are currently buy-backs underway in Lismore following the 2022 floods. Mr Brockhoff said the Institute would also continue to campaign for more accurate flood modelling and a national approach to flood adaptation planning. Once we were comforted by the sound of rain on a tin roof, today we hope the rain lasts just long enough to replenish the soils and water courses and doesn't become too heavy or last too long to cause another flood. Record-breaking floods have arrived with an unwelcome regularity in our region, starting in 2020, then again in 2021 and 2022 and now for centres like Taree, a record flood in May 2025. These flood events followed the devastation of the Black Summer bushfires of 2019/20, creating a pattern of natural disasters that appear to be increasing in frequency, taking an ever-growing financial and emotional toll on our communities and raising questions about building resiliency. The financial costs are staggering, with the Federal and NSW governments having spent $9.5 billion on disaster relief and recovery since the summer of 2019, and that does not include the funding for the D classification disaster relief package announced for Mid North Coast and Hunter farmers. In June's State budget, Treasurer Daniel Mookhey set aside $4.2b in disaster relief across the forward estimates, a figure that is likely to increase in response to both previous and potentially new natural disasters. NSW Treasury has projected that the cost of natural disasters would reach $24b/year by 2070-71 due to climate change. Since the 2019-20 bushfires, disaster relief and recovery across the State has increased by more than 1,000 per cent compared to the six years prior to 2019-20. On top of that are the insurance claims estimated to be $200m for the May 2025 floods, based on 6000 claims, of which 80 per cent are for damaged homes. The Climate Change Authority has reported that millions of Australian homes are facing escalating risks from natural hazards, which are growing more intense due to climate change. Bushfires, cyclones and floods are currently costing Australian homeowners around $4 billion a year in cleanup and recovery costs. These costs are estimated to grow to about $8.7 billion a year by 2050. "Climate change is projected to wipe over $500 billion off the Australian property market by 2030," according to the Authority. The question for our communities is how best to build sustainable, safe communities in a changing climate? So what about solutions? The Planning Institute of Australia (PIA), the national body representing the planning profession, has been working on three basic messages, which they say are essential to build community resilience and reduce future risk. PIA is supported by the Insurance Council and is advocating for strengthening the capacity of all tiers of Government to plan, invest and act by: "Planning is at the heart of building more resilient communities," PIA CEO Matt Collins said. "With clear strategies, good data and targeted investment, we can deliver better-located housing and reduce future risk. "Where we live-and how we plan for it-will determine how well we cope with the challenges of a changing climate. We need to act now." The Institute's national policy director, John Brockhoff, said that to achieve the best planning outcomes, we have to listen to communities, assess their appetite for risk and have them discuss planning outcomes in collaboration with emergency services like the SES and RFS. "We should empower communities to be involved in the planning processes," he said. On the PIA's first message - no new homes in harm's way. Such a policy may require state government legislation so that council planning decisions are not overturned in court. Changes to building standards have already been adopted in flood-prone areas like Lismore and Brisbane, especially on recovery work in homes. And it is also being adopted when it comes to rebuilding damaged infrastructure, such as stronger higher bridges. But Mr Brockhoff said the most difficult message is, the last, the planning of retreat and voluntary relocation. "Those questions are hard. Public funds have to be made available for this option, and the community has to work out where they can relocate to, " he said. It has been done before - in 1916, the town of Clermont in Queensland was moved to higher ground after a devastating flood hit the community when 21 inches fell in a matter of hours in late December of that year. And more recently, also in Queensland, in the Lockyer Valley, after the January 2011 flood, the town of Grantham was relocated to higher ground. There are currently buy-backs underway in Lismore following the 2022 floods. Mr Brockhoff said the Institute would also continue to campaign for more accurate flood modelling and a national approach to flood adaptation planning. Once we were comforted by the sound of rain on a tin roof, today we hope the rain lasts just long enough to replenish the soils and water courses and doesn't become too heavy or last too long to cause another flood. Record-breaking floods have arrived with an unwelcome regularity in our region, starting in 2020, then again in 2021 and 2022 and now for centres like Taree, a record flood in May 2025. These flood events followed the devastation of the Black Summer bushfires of 2019/20, creating a pattern of natural disasters that appear to be increasing in frequency, taking an ever-growing financial and emotional toll on our communities and raising questions about building resiliency. The financial costs are staggering, with the Federal and NSW governments having spent $9.5 billion on disaster relief and recovery since the summer of 2019, and that does not include the funding for the D classification disaster relief package announced for Mid North Coast and Hunter farmers. In June's State budget, Treasurer Daniel Mookhey set aside $4.2b in disaster relief across the forward estimates, a figure that is likely to increase in response to both previous and potentially new natural disasters. NSW Treasury has projected that the cost of natural disasters would reach $24b/year by 2070-71 due to climate change. Since the 2019-20 bushfires, disaster relief and recovery across the State has increased by more than 1,000 per cent compared to the six years prior to 2019-20. On top of that are the insurance claims estimated to be $200m for the May 2025 floods, based on 6000 claims, of which 80 per cent are for damaged homes. The Climate Change Authority has reported that millions of Australian homes are facing escalating risks from natural hazards, which are growing more intense due to climate change. Bushfires, cyclones and floods are currently costing Australian homeowners around $4 billion a year in cleanup and recovery costs. These costs are estimated to grow to about $8.7 billion a year by 2050. "Climate change is projected to wipe over $500 billion off the Australian property market by 2030," according to the Authority. The question for our communities is how best to build sustainable, safe communities in a changing climate? So what about solutions? The Planning Institute of Australia (PIA), the national body representing the planning profession, has been working on three basic messages, which they say are essential to build community resilience and reduce future risk. PIA is supported by the Insurance Council and is advocating for strengthening the capacity of all tiers of Government to plan, invest and act by: "Planning is at the heart of building more resilient communities," PIA CEO Matt Collins said. "With clear strategies, good data and targeted investment, we can deliver better-located housing and reduce future risk. "Where we live-and how we plan for it-will determine how well we cope with the challenges of a changing climate. We need to act now." The Institute's national policy director, John Brockhoff, said that to achieve the best planning outcomes, we have to listen to communities, assess their appetite for risk and have them discuss planning outcomes in collaboration with emergency services like the SES and RFS. "We should empower communities to be involved in the planning processes," he said. On the PIA's first message - no new homes in harm's way. Such a policy may require state government legislation so that council planning decisions are not overturned in court. Changes to building standards have already been adopted in flood-prone areas like Lismore and Brisbane, especially on recovery work in homes. And it is also being adopted when it comes to rebuilding damaged infrastructure, such as stronger higher bridges. But Mr Brockhoff said the most difficult message is, the last, the planning of retreat and voluntary relocation. "Those questions are hard. Public funds have to be made available for this option, and the community has to work out where they can relocate to, " he said. It has been done before - in 1916, the town of Clermont in Queensland was moved to higher ground after a devastating flood hit the community when 21 inches fell in a matter of hours in late December of that year. And more recently, also in Queensland, in the Lockyer Valley, after the January 2011 flood, the town of Grantham was relocated to higher ground. There are currently buy-backs underway in Lismore following the 2022 floods. Mr Brockhoff said the Institute would also continue to campaign for more accurate flood modelling and a national approach to flood adaptation planning.
Sydney Morning Herald
3 days ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
WA news LIVE: More wild weather on the way for Perth
Latest posts Latest posts 9.30am More wild weather on the way for Perth The clean-up from yesterday's storm continues after the city was lashed by howling winds, more than 20,000 lightning strikes, and hail the size of golf balls. And the winter blast is not over yet, with further warnings in place today to avoid the coast. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a coastal hazard advice for beaches between Jurien Bay and Bunbury, advising there is a vigorous cold front moving across the South West this morning. 'Large and powerful surf conditions are possible, which may lead to coastal erosion and localised damage to coastal infrastructure between Bunbury and Jurien Bay,' it warned. Lancelin locals have reported the fierce weekend weather has already washed away 1.5 metres of coast, with the iconic lookout on the brink of collapse. The conditions are expected to ease by this afternoon. 9.30am Across the nation and around the world Here's what's making headlines today: Foreign Minister Penny Wong has committed a further $20 million to the Gaza humanitarian response after some 90,000 pro-Palestine protesters walked across the Sydney Harbour Bridge to demand an end to a worsening crisis in the Middle East. It takes Australia's total contribution to $130 million, and will support humanitarian organisations to provide food and medical supplies. Lynne McGranger has won the Gold Logie for the most popular personality on television, a result that seemed practically ordained from the moment she walked the red carpet mid-afternoon in Sydney in a gold-hued gown. The Australian sharemarket is expected to slide after Wall Street suffered its worst day since May after US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on US trading partners. Trump left trade penalties on Australian goods at the previously announced 10 per cent rate, and pushed back the start date to August 7, adding increasing uncertainty to the global trade picture.
