India's oil demand to grow 3-5% annually till 2030, import reliance to rise: Moody's
New Delhi: India's oil demand is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 3 to 5 per cent through 2030, outpacing China's, although the country's energy import dependence is projected to rise further, according to a report by Moody's Investors Service.
The report titled 'Oil and Gas – China and India: Investment and demand trends diverge, but Chinese companies will retain credit edge' said China's oil demand will likely peak by 2030, driven by slower economic growth and increasing adoption of electric vehicles.
India's crude oil consumption, in contrast, will continue to rise, supported by strong economic expansion and growing industrialisation. Moody's projected India's real GDP growth at 6.3 per cent in 2025 and 6.5 per cent in 2026, making it the fastest among G20 economies.
The report said India imports close to 90 per cent of its crude oil and about 50 per cent of its natural gas requirements. If domestic production does not increase significantly, import dependence will rise further.
In contrast, China's crude oil and gas production has been growing steadily in recent years, supported by government directives for national oil companies (NOCs) to boost exploration and development. Moody's said this trend would help reduce China's import reliance.
India's refining capacity is projected to increase from 256.8 million metric tonnes per annum (mmtpa) in April 2024 to 309.5 mmtpa by 2030. China, meanwhile, is approaching its state-mandated refining cap of 1 billion tonnes.
India's natural gas demand is expected to grow 4 to 7 per cent annually until 2030, with the government targeting to raise gas' share in the energy mix to 15 per cent from the current 6 per cent.
Chinese NOCs including CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC accounted for over 90 per cent of the country's oil and gas output and hold significant integrated operations across the upstream, refining, and marketing segments.
In India, ONGC and Oil India contributed about 70 per cent of the country's oil and gas production in FY24-25, while BPCL, IOCL, and HPCL along with joint ventures handled around 70 per cent of the refining throughput.
Moody's observed that Indian NOCs face higher taxation, lower operational scale, and weaker credit metrics relative to Chinese peers. Indian firms also allocate more capital to downstream expansion, unlike Chinese companies that focus significantly on upstream.
Capital expenditure by Indian NOCs was around USD 15 billion in FY24, compared to about USD 100 billion by Chinese NOCs.
The report said China's fuel pricing regime is more market-oriented, enabling faster cost pass-through. In India, static retail prices during oil price spikes in 2022 led to financial stress for oil marketing companies, including under-recoveries of approximately ₹40,000 crore on LPG in FY25.
Moody's also said the petroleum sector accounted for 16 per cent of the Centre's and 8 per cent of state governments' total revenue in FY24, mainly through taxes and dividends.
On the energy transition front, CNPC plans to produce one-third of its energy from renewables by 2035, while Sinopec aims for carbon neutrality by 2050. India has set a net zero target for 2070.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
26 minutes ago
- Time of India
12k of SAIL's 16k tonnes of steel for tallest rail bridge supplied by Bhilai plant
Raipur: The Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) has played a pivotal role in the construction of the world's tallest railway bridge over the Chenab River in Jammu & Kashmir, supplying a total of 16,000 tonnes of steel — with its Bhilai Steel Plant alone contributing 12,000 tonnes to the project. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now A senior official from the Bhilai plant confirmed the figure on Friday, hailing it as a proud moment for the Indian steel industry and a major milestone in nation-building. The Chenab Railway Bridge, inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on June 6, 2025, is now the highest railway arch bridge on the planet, rising 359 metres above the riverbed — even taller than the Eiffel Tower. The bridge is part of the strategically crucial Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla Rail Link (USBRL) project and aims to bring seamless all-weather connectivity to Kashmir, significantly improving both civilian and military mobility. SAIL's contribution to the bridge included a wide range of steel products such as TMT bars, heavy plates, structural steel, and hot strip mill products. From the total volume supplied, the Bhilai Steel Plant alone provided 5,922 tonnes of TMT bars, 6,454 tonnes of steel plates, and 56 tonnes of structural steel. The remaining steel was delivered by SAIL's IISCO, Durgapur, Rourkela, and Bokaro plants. Officials said that the construction of this 1.3 kilometre long bridge involved the use of approximately 29,000 metric tonnes of fabricated steel, over 10 lakh cubic metres of earthwork, 66,000 cubic metres of concrete, and a vast network of 84 kilometres of cable anchors and rock bolts. Engineered to endure wind speeds of up to 266 kmph and strong earthquakes, the bridge is being seen not just as an engineering feat, but a strategic lifeline to India's northern frontier. SAIL's Bhilai Steel Plant, known for producing high-grade TMT bars with earthquake- and corrosion-resistant properties, has been a consistent contributor to key national infrastructure. Its steel has previously been used in iconic structures like the Bandra-Worli Sea Link, Atal Setu, Sela and Atal Tunnels, and even in defence applications including warships like INS Vikrant. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now According to the Bhilai plant official, the bridge is yet another example of how SAIL's quality steel is powering India's most ambitious projects. "From high-altitude tunnels to bullet trains and now the world's tallest railway bridge, SAIL steel — especially from Bhilai — is proving essential to India's infrastructure push," the official said.
Time of India
27 minutes ago
- Time of India
Procurement rules for scientific research eased
Mumbai: In a resounding shift, the ministry of finance eased a long-standing bottleneck in procurement rules that once tethered researchers to the govt e-Marketplace (GeM), now allowing them to source scientific equipment and consumables from outside it. The revision in monetary ceilings and procurement channels, officials say, required the direct intervention of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. For the scientific community, this isn't just administrative reform—it's an acknowledgment and a huge relief. "Science cannot be caged in platforms and progress cannot always be L1," said a frustrated scientist, who said procurement was running into long delays because of cost and quality issues. The spirit behind GeM portal is, in principle, noble, said most scientists—designed to uplift Indian suppliers and foster a self-reliant manufacturing ecosystem. "But behind the digital veneer of transparency and procurement lies a troubling reality." "As a scientist, I ask—what truly serves the nation? If I want to order a computer that serves my requirements today, I cannot buy one unless it is L1," said professor at the School of Biotechnology at Jawaharlal Nehru University, Binay Panda. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like The Most Successful Way of Intraday Trading is "Market Profile" TradeWise Learn More Undo Five amendments have been made to existing procurement rules. Vice-Chancellors and directors of India's top scientific and academic institutions no longer have to wait for clearances to procure scientific equipment and consumables for research. Under the newly eased rules, they now hold the power to approve Global Tender Enquiries—up to a staggering Rs 200 crore—if they believe the need is justified. No central nod, no extra scrutiny. Just their judgment. Similarly, the ceiling for direct purchases—those made without quotations—has been raised from Rs 1 lakh to Rs 2 lakh. And what once required a drawn-out trail of tenders—purchases from Rs 1 to 10 lakh—can now be cleared by a purchase committee for anything up to Rs 25 lakh. Additionally, the limits on limited tender enquiry have been lifted—from Rs 50 lakh to Rs 1 crore. And perhaps, most telling of all, said scientists—the need for open tenders—earlier triggered at Rs 50 lakh—will now apply only to purchases above Rs 1 crore. Minister of State for Science and Technology, Jitendra Singh, took to social media and termed this as "a landmark step" for enabling #EaseOfDoingResearch. "This will reduce delays, also enhance autonomy and flexibility for research institutions—empowering them to innovate faster," he added. Secretary of the Department of Science and Technology, Prof Abhay Karandikar, said, "It was made possible by the collective efforts of everyone, including other scientific secretaries, PSA, Department of Expenditure and Cabinet Secretariat. " Another scientist explained that in this "algorithm-driven marketplace, the lowest bidder always wins, never mind if the product fails the test of quality. What use is cost-efficiency if it sacrifices precision and most importantly, the requirements of a scientific experiment? What use is patriotism if it's only glued on?" "They don't really make these products here," added Prof Panda. "They import many parts, assemble them locally, and slap on a Make in India sticker—as if that alone sanctifies the machine." He quickly added, "If there is a good Indian product, we do not think twice. We prefer make-in-India by default—it's more affordable, support is better, and it's close by." Most scientists echoed this. However, "We don't want to buy an Indian product if science suffers. "
Time of India
27 minutes ago
- Time of India
China approves some exports of rare earths ahead of US talks
Beijing says it granted approval to some applications for the export of rare earths, a move that could ease tensions before trade negotiations between the US and China next week. The Chinese commerce ministry confirmed the approval of the applications without specifying which countries or industries were covered, even as it noted growing demand for the minerals in robotics and electric vehicles. The ministry will continue to review and approve compliant export applications, according to a statement on Saturday. The confirmation comes days after the US and Chinese presidents spoke, following which Donald Trump said that there "should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of Rare Earth products." Delegations from Beijing and Washington are scheduled to meet in the UK to conduct trade negotiations on Monday. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Three Oxon Hill Banks Are Paying Record High Interest Rates - See the List SavingsPro Undo China granted temporary export licenses to rare-earth suppliers of the top three US automakers, Reuters reported on Friday. The commerce ministry also said earlier Saturday it will speed up approvals for qualified rare earth exporters to Europe. Trump's comment came one day after a rare call with Xi aimed at resolving trade tensions that have been brewing over the topic for weeks. Live Events At that time, Trump said there had been "a very positive conclusion" to the talks, adding that "there should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of Rare Earth products." "We're very far advanced on the China deal," Trump told reporters on Friday. The countries struck an agreement on May 12 in Geneva, Switzerland, to roll back for 90 days most of the triple-digit, tit-for-tat tariffs they had placed on each other since Trump's January inauguration. Financial markets that had worried about trade disruptions rallied on the news.
