Propaganda slip-up: Iran accidentally exposes sensitive missile data
The new ballistic missile, named "Qasem Basir", is the latest addition to Tehran's extensive family of ballistic missiles. It has a range of 1,300km, a lightweight carbon fibre body along with a 500kg warhead, and a camera to ensure precise targeting.
Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, Iran's defence minister, who appeared prominently in the propaganda footage, claimed that the new missile system was developed based on experiences gained during two recent Iranian missile attacks against Israel in April and October 2024. "No defence system, neither THAAD nor Patriot, is capable of intercepting Qasem Basir missiles," Nasirzadeh asserted.
In the version aired on television by state broadcasters, the image from the missile's camera was obscured with a black band covering a number at the bottom left corner.
However, in an online version of the report posted by state media on social networks the black bar did not appear, revealing a "D" symbol alongside a decreasing number sequence from 3 to 1.2. The D figure refers to the missile's drag coefficient, indicating air resistance on the missile in the final moments before the impact.
The inclusion of the sensitive data inadvertently provided Iran's adversaries with insights into the missile's behaviour during its final moments, enabling a clearer estimation of its potential speed.
via GIPHY
It's not a catastrophe, but it can help to 'fine tune' the defensive systems
Farzin Nadimi is a military expert from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He explains the significance of the numbers:
The 'D' refers to 'drag,' or 'fluid resistance', a physics term describing the force opposite to an object's motion within a surrounding fluid – in this case, air. When the number decreases from 3 to 1.4, it doesn't indicate the missile is accelerating; rather, it means the rate at which the missile's speed decreases is slowing down.
Simply put, [the sudden decline in drag] suggests the missile is doing something to evade defence systems: either adjusting its warhead adjusts to an optimal angle to reduce air resistance, or engaging its final-stage engines. In either scenario, the missile's manoeuvrability is enhanced, reducing the available reaction time for defence systems.
Now that adversaries have access to this data, it's not disastrous, but it does provide them with valuable insights into the missile's aerodynamic characteristics, helping them better calibrate their defence measures.
Overall, Nadimi described the missile as an important advancement for Iran's missile programme.
They implied lessons learned from previous attacks on Israel. Those attacks revealed that Iranian missiles lacked accuracy at ranges exceeding 2,000 km. To address this issue, Iran incorporated a camera system to adjust missile trajectories for increased accuracy, alongside employing a carbon fibre body, another significant enhancement.
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