Tony Awards: Predicting the Winners Using Just Math

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3 days ago

The world will descend on New York on Sunday night, by way of the 78th Tony Awards. Shows set in the U.S., the U.K., Cuba, Italy, and Iran all make their way to the nominees circle. Not to mention a show from South Korea projected to win more Tonys than any other production, potentially the first one ever to premiere in Asia and win best musical.
And when I say 'projected,' I mean that mathematically. Every year, I run a statistical model based on precursor awards, which categories a show is nominated in, blended critic predictions, and betting markets to project the odds that each nominee will emerge victorious in every category. After another wonderful year on Broadway, with 42 new shows opening and 29 of them receiving nominations, it's time to get excited for the big night with a data-based forecast at who might triumph at Radio City Music Hall on June 8 on CBS (and Paramount+).
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Maybe Happy Ending is both the name of the show and a surprisingly apt description for how its night at the Tonys will conclude. Emphasis on 'maybe': the model is higher on Dead Outlaw than one might suspect, since it takes into account that show's multiple honors for its off-Broadway run a year ago.
Best play is much closer than best musical, with three productions above a 1-in-5 chance to win. The Drama League has a remarkable streak in this category, predicting every Tony winner since Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike (2013), so that's enough to put this year's Drama League pick of Oh, Mary! over the top.
The original run of Sunset Boulevard won best musical in 1995, but that was an odd year: only two original musicals opened that season (the other being Smokey Joe's Café), so the competition wasn't as stiff as usual. The Sunset Boulevard revival will have a tougher path to the podium with three opponents to beat, Gypsy in particular.
Yellow Face is an extremely popular pick here, and could very well win. For one thing, it earned an Outer Critics Circle nod that Eureka Day missed. But when the two went head-to-head at the Drama Desk and Drama League Awards, Eureka Day went 2-for-2.
Nine actors have won lead actor in a musical twice, and no one has won more than twice. Not only could Jonathan Groff (Just in Time) become the tenth man on that list, but he could become the first ever to do it in consecutive years after his Merrily We Roll Along win a year ago. The model has him at 19.2 percent, a not-insurmountable 20 percentage points the leader, Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending).
At some point I'll run out of trivia facts to post about Audra McDonald. She's already set the all-time record for the most Tony acting wins, with six, and is favored to win her seventh for Gypsy. But Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Boulevard) is a popular pick as well in what's shaping up to be both a great race in its own right and a precursor of the musical revival category.
Cole Escola is performing double-duty, as both the writer and star of Oh, Mary! and is the clear favorite according to the mathematical model, with Jon Michael Hill in Purpose at a distant runner up.
Sarah Snook stars as Dorian Gray – and every other role – and has a 42.8 percent chance to win the Tony for the one-woman show. But close behind her is Laura Donnelly (The Hills of California) at 33.2 percent.
Jak Malone (Operation Mincemeat) stands out as not only the favorite in this category, but as the most likely winner across all eight acting categories. Operation Mincemeat is up for four Tonys, but it's projected to lose each of the other three to Maybe Happy Ending (not nominated in this race), making this category its best chance at a victory.
There's probably a good debate to be had on whether Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club) belonged in the leading or featured category. But regardless of which category she slots into, no one is debating that this was a Tony-worthy performance as Cuban singer Omara Portuondo.
That tension you're feeling is the symptom of just a 3.8 percentage-point gap between Conrad Ricamora (Oh, Mary!) and Francis Jue (Yellow Face). Oh, Mary! appears to be the more beloved production overall – projected to win five categories – so that might be enough to tip the scales in Ricamora's favor.
Only Judith Light (Other Desert Cities, The Assembled Parties) has won featured actress in a play twice in a row. Kara Young, fresh off her win for Purlie Victorious, could be the second, but she'll have to get past Jessica Hecht (Eureka Day) first.
It feels like this happens in so many years: The directors of the best musical and best musical revival frontrunners going head-to-head as the top two candidates in this category. Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending) holds a narrow 5.6 percentage-point lead over Jamie Lloyd (Sunset Boulevard).
Danya Taymor (John Proctor Is the Villain) could join Trevor Nunn, Jerry Zaks, Joe Mantello, and Jack O'Brien as the only people to win best direction of a musical and best direction of a play in consecutive years. But to accomplish that, she'll need to take down the slight frontrunner, Sam Pinkleton (Oh, Mary!).
Boy does Death Becomes Her need a win for Paul Tazewell here. Otherwise, with no other categories it's currently favored in, it risks becoming just the ninth show in Tony history to walk away with zero wins on ten or more nominations.
Holly Pierson (Oh, Mary!) does an excellent job threading the needle – apologies for the pun – between faithfully recreating 19th century styles and mirroring the inherent silliness of the show's concept. None of these shows won a Drama Desk or an Outer Critics Circle honor for their costumes, so it's a less informed prediction than most.
The original run of Sunset Boulevard won seven Tonys, but this is the only category it won that its successor is also favored to win. The first time around, it was Andrew Bridge winning his second Tony, after a first for The Phantom of the Opera. This time, it's lighting designer Jack Knowles looking to win his first.
This is the first of three consecutive play design categories that Stranger Things: The First Shadow holds the highest percentage on. And that's actually underselling how honored this production might be, since it's also due to receive a Special Tony Award for its illusions and technical effects.
In a category that typically nominates solo artists, Dane Laffrey and George Reeve (Maybe Happy Ending) are teaming up. Franne and Eugene Lee (Candide in 1974) are currently the only pair of individuals to share this award for a single musical.
The prior paragraph notwithstanding, 59 Productions breaks the dichotomy between individuals and duos. This design studio already has a win on the musical side from An American in Paris, and is now looking to notch its first victory for a play for Stranger Things: The First Shadow, in conjunction with four-time nominee Miriam Buether.
We now arrive at the single closest category of the year, according to my model. Just 0.8 percent separates Buena Vista Social Club and Sunset Boulevard for sound design of a musical. If you're entering a Tony pool, you may as well flip a coin.
Paul Arditti's nomination here for Stranger Things: The First Shadow marks the single most likely winner of any nominee in any category this year. Not sure if this is the category you expected to hear that stat in, but when the critics and the precursor awards are unanimous, that's what happens.
In the order of this article, this marks the fifth projected win for Maybe Happy Ending. Should every prediction included here come true (a highly unlikely event), Maybe Happy Ending and Oh, Mary! would become the tenth pair of best musical/best play winners in the same season to each win 5+ Tonys. The most recent occurrence was The Band's Visit and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.
It might feel like the same show always wins the trio of best musical, book, and score. But in recent years, that's far from true: Kimberly Akimbo is the only show to pull off that trifecta since 2019. Maybe Happy Ending is now hoping to become the second in that timespan.
Jerry Mitchell has been widely praised for his choreography for Boop!, and could certainly conclude this awards season with a Tony. But, a key factor in the model is which other categories a show is nominated in, and only two other shows in the past 50 years (Swan Lake, Bandstand) managed to win this award without either a best musical or musical revival nomination.
I don't know if the Tonys tipped their hand here or not, but Marco Paguia has technically already won a Tony for Buena Vista Social Club, as he and the rest of the band received a Special Tony Award this year. He's got a 56.2 percent to add a competitive win to that trophy case.
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These blurbs alongside each chart cover but a small fraction of the talent from around the world involved in making this Broadway season happen. Perhaps the same could be said of the Tony telecast itself, which will surely be a delightful three hours that simultaneously leaves us craving more time at the theater.
Ben Zauzmer (@BensOscarMath) uses data to write about awards shows for The Hollywood Reporter.
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