Trump's inner circle shifted view to support limited, one-off strike on Iran nuclear sites
Donald Trump's move to bomb three nuclear sites in Iran came as those inside his orbit who were opposed to US intervention in the conflict shifted their views in favor of a limited and one-off strike.
The US president had been under immense pressure from Republican anti-interventionists not to engage in any action against Iran out of concern that the US might be dragged into a protracted engagement to topple Iran's leadership, or that strikes on facilities might have limited success.
Some advisers both inside and outside the White House tried to dissuade him from becoming entangled in what they characterized as a conflict started by Israel. They initially suggested the US could continue to help Israel with support from the intelligence community.
But in recent days, as Trump increasingly considered the prospect of strikes and told advisers he had no interest in a prolonged war to bring about regime change, some advisers shifted their public arguments to suggesting the US could do a quick bombing run if Israel could do nothing further.
The evolving views gave Trump some cover to order a bombing run that targeted the three nuclear facilities in Iran. A US official said on Saturday that the strikes were complete, the B-2 bombers used in the raid were out of Iranian airspace and no further follow-up attacks were planned.
However, the strikes will inevitably be seen by some as a victory for hardliners in the US who have pushed for a tough stance on Iran, a firm backing of Israel's attack on the country and direct US military involvement in that effort.
The US strikes in the end were limited to Iran's nuclear uranium-enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, the facility buried deep underground that is seen as the most difficult to take offline, and a third site at Isfahan, where Iran was believed to have stored its near-weapons-grade uranium.
It was unclear whether the bombing run did enough damage to set back Iran's ability to acquire a nuclear weapon, and whether Iran had already moved the weapons-grade uranium out of the Isfahan laboratory as some officials suggested.
Trump appeared to view the bombing run as comparable to his drone strike to assassinate Gen Qassem Suleimani of Iran, one of his proudest accomplishments from his first term and one he mentioned repeatedly at campaign rallies, despite his denouncements of US military action in the Middle East.
Like he did after the Suleimani operation, Trump posted a giant graphic of the American flag on his Truth Social account shortly after he described the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities as 'very successful' in a post announcing details of the operation.
The comparison appeared to be an additional effort to underscore his intentions that he does not want a wider war with Iran and was only focused on the necessary steps to ensure Iran could not develop a nuclear weapon.
Whether that hope plays out could depend on large part on how Iran interprets the strikes and its ability to retaliate. If Iranian leaders perceived them to be limited, it could lead to a more measured response. But if seen as too disproportionate, and with little to lose, Iran could open frontal attacks on numerous US bases in the region.
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7 minutes ago
- Times
US bombs Iran live: Trump says nuclear programme ‘obliterated'
Israel's military says it has begun further strikes on military targets in western Iran. In a post on social media, the IDF claimed that the air force 'neutralised' the launchers that fired missiles towards Israel earlier this morning and targeted other launchers that were preparing to fire. The UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said there has so far been no increase in radiation levels following the US strikes on Iran. 'Following attacks on three nuclear sites in Iran – including Fordow – the IAEA can confirm that no increase in off-site radiation levels has been reported as of this time', the IAEA said in a statement. 'IAEA will provide further assessments on situation in Iran as more information becomes available.' Eleven people have been taken to hospital after Iranian missiles hit 'multiple sites' across Israel, the national emergency service said. Images and video posted on social media appeared to show extensive damage to apartment buildings. Ten 'hits' have been reported across northern and central Israel, including in Haifa, Nes Ziona, Rishon Lezion, and Tel Aviv, according to the state broadcaster Kan and other Israeli media. Please enable cookies and other technologies to view this content. You can update your cookies preferences any time using privacy manager. Israel's air defence systems were seen in action in the skies above Jerusalem following the Iranian missile David Adom, Israel's emergency service, said it had dispatched teams to the affected areas. Iranian state TV reported that 30 missiles were fired at Israel. Iran's foreign minister described the US strikes as 'extremely dangerous, lawless and criminal behaviour' in a post on social media. Abbas Araghchi added that Iran 'reserves all options' to defend itself following the attack on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Please enable cookies and other technologies to view this content. You can update your cookies preferences any time using privacy manager. Israel's military says it has detected missile launches from Iran following the US strikes. The Israeli air force 'is operating to intercept and strike where necessary to eliminate the threat,' the IDF said in a statement. Please enable cookies and other technologies to view this content. You can update your cookies preferences any time using privacy manager. Iran's National Nuclear Safety System Centre has issued a statement reporting 'no signs of contamination' at the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan sites following the US strikes. 'There is no danger to the residents living around the aforementioned sites,' the statement added. 'This attack is an illegal, unjustifiable and extremely dangerous act of aggression,' the Venezuelan government said in a statement while calling for an 'immediate end to hostilities'. Miguel Díaz-Canel, the president of Cuba, said the bombings were a violation of international law. 'We strongly condemn the US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, which constitutes a dangerous escalation of the conflict in the Middle East,' he said. 'The aggression seriously violates the UN Charter and international law and plunges humanity into a crisis with irreversible consequences.' Analysis by David Charter in Washington President Trump's political allies are out in force to try to get ahead of the inevitable political fallout from the Iran strikes. Trump is facing two-pronged domestic criticism — usurping the exclusive power of Congress to declare war and breaking his 'America First' promise to voters to avoid new wars. There are already calls from some Democrats to impeach him. A notable feature of Trump's second term has been his pushing of the boundaries of executive power but with the Republicans in control of both chambers of Congress, he will not be concerned about impeachment. Trump is much more worried about placating his core supporters who hate the cost to taxpayers of foreign adventurism. Hence the appearance of loyalists like Markwayne Mullin, a senator from Oklahoma, on Fox News last night, to reassure the base that this is what they voted for all along. 'Peace through strength is what President Trump has been talking about from day one,' he said. The White House has released pictures from the National Security Council last night: After addressing the nation, President Trump issued another warning to Iran on Truth Social. Any retaliation, he said, 'will be met with force far greater than what was witnessed tonight'. Leading Republicans who have previously clashed with Trump praised his decision to strike. Mike Pence, his former vice-president with whom Trump had a spectacular falling out, said he 'should be commended for his decisive leadership'. Mitch McConnell, the Republican senator, also said Trump had made the correct decision. Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation struck a defiant tone in response to the American strikes and said it would not allow development on its 'national industry' to be halted. The US attacks were a 'blatant' violation of international law, the agency said, and the international community should condemn them. The organisation did not mention the extent of the damage inflicted by the bombings. António Guterres, the secretary-general of the United Nations, condemned the American strikes and said the situation was in danger of spiraling out of control. 'This is a dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge — and a direct threat to international peace and security,' he said in a statement. 'There is a growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control — with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region, and the world.' Guterres called for UN member states to de-escalate and uphold their obligations under the UN charter. 'At this perilous hour, it is critical to avoid a spiral of chaos,' he added. 'The only hope is peace.' Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Democratic congresswoman, said Trump should be impeached for launching strikes without congressional approval. 'The president's disastrous decision to bomb Iran without authorization is a grave violation of the Constitution and Congressional War Powers,' she wrote on X. 'He has impulsively risked launching a war that may ensnare us for generations. It is absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment.' As the world waits to see how Iran will respond, Trump warned that the US will inflict further destruction if Tehran does not seek peace. 'This cannot continue,' he said. 'There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. 'Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight's was the most difficult of them all, by far, and perhaps the most lethal. 'But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill, most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes.' Trump said that Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, would hold a press conference at the Pentagon on Sunday morning at 8am (1pm UK time). 'Thank you very much. A short time ago, the US military carried out massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime: Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Everybody heard those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise. Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror. 'Tonight I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular nilitary success. Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. if they do not future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier. 'For 40 years Iran has been saying, 'death to America, death to Israel'. They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms blowing off their legs with roadside bombs. that was their specialty. We lost over a thousand people. Hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate. 'In particular so many were killed by their general Qasem Soleimani. I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue. 'I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we've gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel. I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they've done and most importantly I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight and all of the United States military on an operation the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades. 'Hopefully we will no longer need their services in this capacity. I hope that's so. I Also want to congratulate the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Dan 'Razin' Cane — spectacular general — and all of the brilliant military minds involved in this attack. With all of that being said this cannot continue. 'There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight's was the most difficult of them all by far and perhaps the most lethal. But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision speed and skill. 'Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes. There's no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight Not even close. There's never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago. tomorrow General Cane and Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth will have a press conference at 8am [1pm UK time] at the Pentagon. 'I want to just thank everybody and in particular God. I want to just say we love you God and we love our great military. protect them. God bless the Middle East. God bless Israel and God bless America. Thank you very much.' President Trump said Iran's nuclear capabilities had been 'obliterated' and Tehran must now make peace or face further destructive attacks. Addressing the nation from the White House, the president said 'massive precision strikes' on the three Iranian nuclear sites had been a 'spectacular military success'. Iran's nuclear facilities — 'a horribly destructive enterprise' — were destroyed, according to Trump. He said Tehran was the world's 'number one state sponsor of terror'. In his first public comments on the US strikes, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu praised President Trump and said 'the forces of civilisation thank you'. Trump, Netanyahu said, had made a 'bold decision' that 'will change history'. He added: 'History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world's most dangerous regime the world's most dangerous weapons. His leadership today has created a pivot of history that can help lead the Middle East and beyond to a future of prosperity and peace.' Netanyahu said he and Trump believed in 'peace through strength'. He added: 'God bless America, God bless Israel, and may God bless our unshakeable alliance, our unbreakable faith.' Please enable cookies and other technologies to view this content. You can update your cookies preferences any time using privacy manager. The governors of California and New York, states that are both home to significant Jewish communities, said they were closely monitoring the situation in case of any threats following the strikes on Iran. Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, said that while there have been no specific threats so far, 'we urge everyone to stay vigilant and report suspicious activity'. Kathy Hochul of New York said she is receiving intelligence briefings. 'The New York State Police are working to protect at-risk sites and fight cyberattacks,' she said. Siavash, a 30-year-old completing his military service in Iran, said that he was in shock. 'I keep rereading Trump's tweet. We did everything to prevent this moment. Since Obama said, 'all options are on the table,' we've tried — as citizens — to keep war off the table. But here we are. I'm sitting in uniform, watching the US strike … It feels like an absolute failure for me and people like me. 'Those nuclear sites were supposed to bring progress. Instead, they devoured our youth. I keep replaying every year since 2009 in my head. Honestly, I haven't lived since 2019. Today, I remembered how the US attacked Iraq. I knew Trump would do the same — and now it's happened. I once told a friend I couldn't leave Iran, that the grief of absence would kill me. He said, 'I just don't want you to die here — under both the regime and a war.' Maybe he saw more clearly than I did.' The American strikes involved six 'bunker-buster' bombs dropped on the Fordow site, President Trump appears to have told a Fox News host. Sean Hannity said he had spoken to Trump, who told him that the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites were 'wiped out' by 30 Tomahawk missiles launched by American submarines 400 miles away. Hannity, a favoured confidant of Trump's, said Iran's nuclear ambitions were 'officially dead'. 'Everyone is out of harm's way for now, that does not mean that American assets in the region are not at risk,' Hannity added. Analysis by Katy Balls, Washington Editor Donald Trump pitched himself as an antiwar president, winning support on the promise of a move away from the 'forever wars' that have dominated previous presidencies and a focus back home. His decision to strike three nuclear sites in Iran will test his coalition. It risks upsetting the isolationists in his party and comes after a week of public fighting among Republicans and members of the wider Maga movement over the best course of action. Last week Trump told a reporter that he decides what counts as America First. That claim is about to be tested. Already tensions are clear with Steve Bannon, the former Trump adviser and godfather of Maga, who has just called on Trump to 'talk to Maga'. He said: 'There's a lot of Maga who are not happy about this. I'll just be blunt'. • Read Katy Balls's full analysis of the fight for the soul of Maga An Iranian state-run news agency has acknowledged the attack on the country's Fordow nuclear site, though did not provide any details on the extent of the damage. Quoting a statement from Iran's Qom province, IRNA said: 'A few hours ago, when Qom air defences were activated and hostile targets were identified, part of the Fordow nuclear site was attacked by enemies.' Tasnim, a semi-official news agency, also reported that air defence opened fire in the area. Further details were not immediately available. Yoav Gallant, the former Israeli defence minister, praised the US strikes. 'President Trump took a bold decision for the United States, for Israel, for all of humanity,' Gallant, who was fired by Binyamin Netanyahu last year in a clash over the war against Hamas, said on X. 'The world is now a safer place.' CNN reported that the Israeli government had been given advance notice that the US was going to strike Iran. While some senior Republicans praised Trump for striking Iran, Thomas Massie, the isolationist congressman from Kentucky, said it was 'not constitutional'. Massie introduced a war powers resolution to Congress last week seeking to block US involvement in Israel's conflict with Iran. He says that under the US constitution presidents must seek approval from Congress before launching a war. He was joined by prominent Democrats, including the Californian congressman Ro Khanna. After Trump announced the strikes on Saturday night, Khanna called on his colleagues to vote on Massie's resolution 'to prevent America from being dragged into another endless Middle East war'. World leaders have been calling for restraint since Israel began bombing Iran, with Sir Keir Starmer urging Binyamin Netanyahu to seek a diplomatic solution. At the G7 meeting in Canada last week, the heads of some of the world's wealthiest economies urged de-escalation but stopped short of calling for a ceasefire. Beyond the West there was strident criticism of Israel. Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, said Beijing explicitly condemned Israel's 'violation of Iran's sovereignty, security and territorial integrity'. President Putin offered to serve as a mediator between Israel and Iran. In his first public comments since the conflict broke out last week, Putin said it was a 'delicate issue' but that, 'in my view, a solution could be found.' That the US was planning to strike Iran after President Trump spent days mulling over the decision was teased by the news that B-2 bombers were on the move. Flight trackers first reported that the planes had taken off from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri early on Saturday morning local time. The aircraft, which can be equipped with the 30,000lbs 'bunker buster' bombs needed to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, were believed to be heading to a US base on the Pacific island of Guam. However, Trump's announcement of a 'very successful' raid suggests that the B-2s had been on a mission to Iran. The B-2 can fly at an altitude of 50,000ft and is equipped with stealth technology making it difficult for enemies to detect. The US military first used B-2 Spirit stealth bombers in combat during the 1999 Kosovo War. Trump's social network, Truth Social, appears to be down for many of the users trying to view it. The president regularly uses the channel, which he owns, for official announcements. About 40 minutes ago he used the platform to confirm America's 'very successful attack' on three Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump has said he will make a national TV address to Americans at 10pm eastern daylight time (3am in Britain). He posted on social media: 'I will be giving an Address to the Nation at 10:00 P.M., at the White House, regarding our very successful military operation in Iran. This is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD. IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR. THANK YOU' Lindsey Graham, the US senator who was among the most vociferous supporters of bombing Iran, praised Trump for making the 'right call'. 'The regime deserves it,' he said on X. 'Well done, President @realDonaldTrump.' Israeli officials told the Trump administration that they did not want to wait up to two weeks before striking Iran, according to Reuters. That is how long the US president gave himself to decide on Thursday, a deadline that would have expired on July 10. On what was described as a 'tense' phone call on Thursday, Israel is said to have warned the White House that it could act alone rather than wait, citing a limited window in which to target Iran's nuclear facilities. JD Vance, the US vice-president, is believed to have been against American involvement, illustrating the split inside the Maga movement over taking military action. For more than a decade, even before he officially ran for president, Donald Trump has repeatedly said Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb. In 2018 he withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, an agreement reached by his predecessor Barack Obama that restricted Tehran's atomic ambitions in return for sanctions relief. Trump's stance has not changed during his second term. 'Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, it's very simple' he said last week while mulling over US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The Trump administration had been negotiating with Iran over a fresh deal, but the countries were unable to reach an agreement before Israel launched its surprise assault last week. 'We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home. Congratulations to our great American Warriors. There is not another military in the World that could have done this. NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE! Thank you for your attention to this matter.' The United States struck at targets inside Iran in a high-stakes attempt to extinguish Tehran's nuclear programme. It risks spiralling into an unpredictable regional war. After spending days deliberating taking military action, President Trump said the US had targeted three nuclear sites inside Iran: 'Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan'.
Times
7 minutes ago
- Times
Does Iran have nuclear weapons? Why US is attacking now
It had long been assumed that Iran's two main nuclear enrichment facilities were hidden so deeply into the country's mountains that it would prove challenging for the Israeli military to destroy them. That did not stop Israel trying. Some experts questioned whether its attacks starting on June 12 would do anything more than temporarily set back the nuclear programme — but there will be far less doubt about the effectiveness of America's bombing raid on Saturday. • America strikes Iran: follow live Israel's attack on Iran was, therefore, a gamble. Either it has degraded Iran's nuclear weapons facilities sufficiently enough to halt further production, or the prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has emboldened Tehran to accelerate its race to build a nuclear bomb. Israel claimed the threat was 'imminent' after Iran enriched more than 400 kilograms of uranium to 60 per cent, just shy of the 90 per cent needed to build a bomb. The fuel, if weaponised, could be enough for nine nuclear warheads, according to the UN. Israeli missiles struck Natanz, one of the country's main facilities, and killed some of Iran's top nuclear specialists. The strikes also killed Iran's top two military commanders and severely injured a senior aide to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who headed nuclear policy. The attack came a day after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared Iran to be in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time due to Tehran's unwillingness to disclose information about its nuclear stockpile, and days before Iran and the US were scheduled to hold another round of talks to curb the nuclear programme. But western intelligence agencies, including US ones, had assessed that Iran was not currently building a bomb, although it possessed the know-how. Iran has always claimed that its nuclear programme was meant for peaceful purposes but that it could build a bomb if its sites were attacked. Even before America joined in, one expert said that the Israeli strikes could bring that moment closer. 'It's far more likely now that Iran will withdraw from the non-proliferation treaty and make the decision to build nuclear weapons,' said Kelesy Davenport, the director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association. • What weapons does Iran have and how long can it attack Israel? 'Israel cannot destroy the knowledge Iran has gained about nuclear development. There is already a real risk that Iran is already diverting enriched uranium to covert sites. So Israeli strikes can set back the programme, but Israel cannot stop Iran indefinitely,' she said. It is widely accepted that Israel has nuclear weapons of its own, although it does not admit or deny having them. In 2008, The Sunday Times uncovered the secrets of a subterranean factory engaged in the manufacture of Israeli nuclear weapons. Hidden beneath the Negev desert, the factory had been producing atomic warheads for 20 years. Back then it had almost certainly begun manufacturing thermonuclear weapons, with yields big enough to destroy entire cities. It is not clear what weapons were used to attack Natanz and how far down they were able to penetrate. Some experts believe only with American support could Israel meaningfully degrade all of Iran's nuclear capabilities. • The Iran-Israel conflict in maps, video and satellite images Last year, Iran fired drones, cruise and ballistic missiles at Israel on two occasions and it appears likely that Tehran will retaliate. Those previous exchanges avoided setting off a devastating regional war because of the strength of Israeli air defences. But with each attack, the risk increases that a missile gets through. Indeed, Netanyahu may calculate that an Iranian misstep could drag the US into the conflict — forcing Trump to reconsider his opposition to a strike on Tehran's nuclear facilities.
Times
7 minutes ago
- Times
I looked into Ayatollah Khamenei's eyes. He's willing to die a martyr
The closest I ever came to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was in the summer of 2009, during the Green Movement that brought millions of Iranians on to the streets to protest against a presidential election that had been rigged in favour of the Ayatollah's preferred candidate. One Friday in June that year I was one of two foreign journalists, and the only Brit, in the press section of a huge open air prayer space in the centre of Tehran while, a few yards away, the supreme leader delivered one of the most consequential sermons of his life. Amid chants from the congregation of 'Death to America!' and 'Death to Israel!' Khamenei abandoned his long-maintained pose of neutrality between Iran's political factions, declaring the election results legitimate and ordering the protesters to end their agitation or face 'blood, violence and chaos'. • US bombs Iran – follow live Accusing western countries of being behind the protests, Khamenei suddenly fixed his eyes on mine, declaring: 'And the most evil of them all are the British.' The faithful bayed dutifully: 'Death to Britain!' In the weeks that followed, as the Green Movement was obliterated by truncheon charges and pepper gas, show trials and prison rapes, I never forgot that look. Years later and now 86 years old, Khamenei is the least known of the three national leaders who will decide the future of Iran, and with it that of the Middle East. For Binyamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump, the war that Israel started on June 12 is about Iran's ability to acquire nuclear weapons and threaten the Jewish state, which Khamenei has described as a 'cancerous tumour' that needs removal. Now, Trump has done what he previously seemed unwilling to do. Late on Saturday night, the US president ordered military strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. For Khamenei, this is a moment of truth in which his 46 years of service to the Islamic Revolution, 36 of them spent as the country's all powerful supreme leader — effectively its head of state, head of religion and commander-in-chief — will either be vindicated or reduced to ashes. It was Khamenei's mentor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the 1979 revolution that toppled Shah Mohammad RezaPahlavi after spending 15 years in exile. In the 1980s he waged an epic eight-year war against Saddam Hussein's Iraq. (If you find the surnames of the two successive supreme leaders confusingly similar, you're in good company; from Trump down, the US administration calls Khamenei 'the Ayatollah', even though there are actually many ayatollahs in Iran.) Khomeini trusted his mentee and valued his commitment to revolutionary principles. When he died in 1989, Iran's Assembly of Experts, the body of more than 80 clerics who choose the supreme leader, elected Khamenei in his place. • Who is Iran's ruthless supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? As supreme leader, Khamenei is the ultimate power in Iran. Presidential nominees are vetted by the Guardian Council, which is partially selected by Khamenei and also vets laws passed by parliament. Critically, Khamenei also controls the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran's elite military force that acts an ideological shield for the revolution, controls the ballistic missile programme and runs the country's foreign military operations. In recent years, Khamenei has presided over what until last year looked like an unstoppable expansion of Iranian influence through the Middle East, backing militias in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, as well as Bashar al-Assad's Syria (a network that came to be known as its 'axis of resistance') — all the while enriching uranium to ever higher levels. Hubris took hold. The death in 2017 of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president of Iran and Khamenei's only equal among his peers in the political elite, robbed the supreme leader of the restraining influence of a pragmatist, a man who was more interested in reaching an accommodation with the West than in fighting it. Meanwhile, the rest of the religious establishment elevated this cleric of only middling expertise to the status of a major divine. The Revolutionary Guard commanders whom he coddled with lucrative sanctions-busting opportunities made his overseas mission their own. All this came to an abrupt halt after Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. This led to the mauling of Hezbollah at the hands of the same brutally effective Israeli intelligence services and air force that are now mauling Iran. To make matters worse, last year Assad's Syrian regime was overthrown, denying Iran its most important foreign client. The Islamic Revolution has been boxed back to its heartland on the Persian plateau. For the past week Israel's air force has been hammering nuclear, military and civilian targets in Iran, in the process killing more than 600 people, a third of them civilians. Unable to protect their own skies, Iran has retaliated by sending waves of missiles into Israel, including a device that got through Israel's defences and hit the Sorokah hospital, in Beersheeba, on Thursday. Trump has announced that he will decide within two weeks whether to enter the war — giving him enough time to ready his stealth bombers and aircraft carriers, but also to have a last crack at diplomacy. The world is waiting to see whether Trump uses his bunker-busting bombs to try to take out Iran's still intact Fordow uranium enrichment facility, near the seminary city of Qom, where Khamenei once studied 'at the feet', as the Persian saying goes, of his mentor Khomeini. If Trump does decide to fight, Khamenei's response will be just as critical. This could range from the 'unconditional surrender' that Trump demanded on Tuesday to attacking US forces in the Middle East by conventional means and — as a possibly suicidal last resort — further enriching the 60 per cent enriched uranium that Iran already possesses and going flat out for a bomb, assuming that Iran retains the materiel and expertise to do so. • The Iran-Israel conflict in maps, video and satellite images At stake now for the supreme leader is not simply the country's territorial integrity but also the ideologically radical and socially repressive ethos he has imposed on it. Revolutionary Iran is a country where the hijab remains mandatory for women, even if a large minority abandoned it during the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' protests of 2022-23, and have resisted the authorities' best efforts to force them to adopt it again. Modesty codes are imposed by the police and criticising the supreme leader is punishable by prison. Married women need their husband's permission to obtain a passport. Religious minorities face discrimination and the state executed 901 people in 2024, according to the UN. Conventional political careers are assessed on the basis of positions attained and policies enacted. But Khamenei, warrior, prophet and moral scourge, has made it his life's work to preserve the purity of the Islamic Revolution and deny Israel a moment's peace. It is by these measures that he asks to be judged. The style of the man is the antithesis of his adversaries. While they love to be seen, Khamenei is sparing in his appearances, a stranger to vanity and reportedly frugal in his tastes. A globetrotter he is not: he last set foot out of Iran in 1989 (destination: North Korea) and rarely accepts visits from westerners (an exception is made for Vladimir Putin). Gone even are the modest fripperies of his early adulthood in the shrine city of Mashhad, where he indulged an interest in poetry and music and cultivated the image of a worldly intellectual by smoking a pipe. From his earliest years, Khamenei was raised by his father, Javad, also a Shia cleric, to value austerity and devotion to Islam. Two of his brothers also became clerics. 'My father was a well‑known religious scholar who was very pious and a bit of a recluse,' Khamenei recalled. 'We had a difficult life. I remember that sometimes we didn't have anything in the house for dinner at night. Nevertheless, my mother would try to scrape something up, and that dinner would be nothing but bread and raisins.' Today, when Khamenei engages in verbal jousts with his current — and perhaps final — adversaries in Israel and the West, it is in his mind the confrontation of the implacable man of God, soft of voice, hard of will, and the histrionics of the fragile western ego. On Wednesday, in an address ostensibly to the Iranian people — but in reality directed at Trump — Khamenei made it clear that he won't capitulate. Occasionally raising his left hand to emphasise a point (he lost the use of his right hand in 1981 after an opposition group tried to kill him using a booby-trapped tape recorder), and frequently licking his lips, an old habit, the supreme leader said in his calm, even voice: 'The Iranians are not the kind of people who surrender … if America enters the fray it will suffer irreparable harm.' As I learnt to my cost at Friday prayers that day in 2009, Khamenei is an amateur historian who remembers with rancour the sway that Britain enjoyed over Iran for many decades, without, however, ever formally colonising the country. He hates sell-outs, particularly the last Shah's father, Reza Shah. Reza was brought to power by the British and, having made the mistake of favouring the Germans in the Second World War, was bundled into exile by the Allies when they invaded in 1941. An Iranian friend recently sent me a clip of Khamenei in a hall of people discussing the moment when the British told Reza to leave Iran. His style is conversational, intimate, grandfatherly — but above all virile. 'They told him to go,' Khamenei told his rapt audience, 'and he went! Can you imagine a greater humiliation for a country?' And, as if addressing Reza himself, he went on: 'If you're a man … if you possess a drop of spunk, you'd say, 'I won't go!' You'd let them kill you!' So when Khamenei issues his warnings from his bunker, do not confuse them with the empty fulminations of a Colonel Muammar Gaddafi or a Saddam Hussein, made while their praetorian guards melt into the night. Do not expect this man who has lived his life for a noble cause — and in his pious eyes has everything to gain from dying a martyr to it — to do an Assad and willingly exchange the leadership of his country for a Russian dacha. Right now, from exile in America, a second Reza Pahlavi — the grandson of Reza Shah, for whom Khamenei has such fierce contempt — has been calling for the Iranians to take advantage of the Israeli assault and topple their tyrannical ruler. It's true that millions of Iranians hate Khamenei for his callousness, his machinations, his driving of the country to the brink of disaster. But, if they are forced to choose between a foreign beast and a domestic monster, a great many will choose the latter. From his base near Washington DC, Pahlavi taunts the supreme leader, calling him a rat in his lair. But he knows, and everyone knows, the basic history. His father cut and ran when things got tough in 1979 and his grandfather did the same in 1941. Not, I think, Ali Khamenei. Christopher de Bellaigue is the former correspondent of The Economist in Iran and author of The Golden Throne: The Curse of a King
