Does Iran have nuclear weapons? Why US is attacking now

Times

3 hours ago

It had long been assumed that Iran's two main nuclear enrichment facilities were hidden so deeply into the country's mountains that it would prove challenging for the Israeli military to destroy them.
That did not stop Israel trying. Some experts questioned whether its attacks starting on June 12 would do anything more than temporarily set back the nuclear programme — but there will be far less doubt about the effectiveness of America's bombing raid on Saturday.
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Israel's attack on Iran was, therefore, a gamble. Either it has degraded Iran's nuclear weapons facilities sufficiently enough to halt further production, or the prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has emboldened Tehran to accelerate its race to build a nuclear bomb.
Israel claimed the threat was 'imminent' after Iran enriched more than 400 kilograms of uranium to 60 per cent, just shy of the 90 per cent needed to build a bomb. The fuel, if weaponised, could be enough for nine nuclear warheads, according to the UN.
Israeli missiles struck Natanz, one of the country's main facilities, and killed some of Iran's top nuclear specialists. The strikes also killed Iran's top two military commanders and severely injured a senior aide to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who headed nuclear policy.
The attack came a day after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared Iran to be in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time due to Tehran's unwillingness to disclose information about its nuclear stockpile, and days before Iran and the US were scheduled to hold another round of talks to curb the nuclear programme.
But western intelligence agencies, including US ones, had assessed that Iran was not currently building a bomb, although it possessed the know-how. Iran has always claimed that its nuclear programme was meant for peaceful purposes but that it could build a bomb if its sites were attacked.
Even before America joined in, one expert said that the Israeli strikes could bring that moment closer. 'It's far more likely now that Iran will withdraw from the non-proliferation treaty and make the decision to build nuclear weapons,' said Kelesy Davenport, the director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association.
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'Israel cannot destroy the knowledge Iran has gained about nuclear development. There is already a real risk that Iran is already diverting enriched uranium to covert sites. So Israeli strikes can set back the programme, but Israel cannot stop Iran indefinitely,' she said.
It is widely accepted that Israel has nuclear weapons of its own, although it does not admit or deny having them. In 2008, The Sunday Times uncovered the secrets of a subterranean factory engaged in the manufacture of Israeli nuclear weapons.
Hidden beneath the Negev desert, the factory had been producing atomic warheads for 20 years. Back then it had almost certainly begun manufacturing thermonuclear weapons, with yields big enough to destroy entire cities.
It is not clear what weapons were used to attack Natanz and how far down they were able to penetrate. Some experts believe only with American support could Israel meaningfully degrade all of Iran's nuclear capabilities.
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Last year, Iran fired drones, cruise and ballistic missiles at Israel on two occasions and it appears likely that Tehran will retaliate.
Those previous exchanges avoided setting off a devastating regional war because of the strength of Israeli air defences. But with each attack, the risk increases that a missile gets through. Indeed, Netanyahu may calculate that an Iranian misstep could drag the US into the conflict — forcing Trump to reconsider his opposition to a strike on Tehran's nuclear facilities.