ASEAN 2025 sales forecast faces third consecutive year of decline

Yahoo

27-05-2025

The ASEAN Light Vehicle (LV) market closed Q1 2025 with marginal growth of 2% YoY, thanks to positive results in the region's two smallest markets: Vietnam and the Philippines.
The Vietnamese market surged by 51% YoY in Q1 2025, largely attributable to the strong performance of VinFast. According to the company announcement, it delivered more than 35k units in Q1 2025, a substantial increase from approximately 9k units in Q1 2024. VinFast has now become the leading automaker in the Vietnamese market, accounting for more than 31% of total LV sales. Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, and considering that Q1 results have exceeded our expectations, we have revised the country's forecast upward to a record high of 521k units, marking a 12% YoY increase. This optimistic outlook is supported by the market's resilience and robust economic growth.
Meanwhile, LV demand in the Philippines rose by 10% YoY in March, marking the 37th consecutive month of growth, and contributed to overall Q1 2025 sales increasing by 9% YoY. Based on local media reports, the strong results were supported by increasing demand for EVs, affordable vehicle prices from Chinese brands, and aggressive sales campaigns. Moreover, household consumption grew by 5.3% in Q1 2025, improving from 4.7% in Q4 2024, thanks to easing inflation. This could imply higher consumer confidence and purchasing power.
Despite the positive growth in Q1 2025, we have cut the Philippines' 2025-27 sales forecast by an average of 2% compared to last month's report, due to political uncertainty stemming from the conflict between the Marcos and Rodrigo families. As such, 2025 volumes are now projected at 492k units, reflecting a 4% YoY increase.
In contrast, LV sales in Thailand decreased by 7% YoY in Q1 2025. However, this decline is less severe than the nearly 30% contraction experienced in Q4 2024 and the subdued total LV sales of 565k units (-26% YoY) for the whole of last year.
We have made a downward adjustment to the country's sales forecast for 2025-2028. Volumes are now expected to decrease by to 555k units in 2025, with a projected recovery to 625k units in 2026. A major concern arises from the unpredictable policies of the US under the new administration of President Trump. The Bank of Thailand has projected that, in the most favorable scenario, the economy will expand by 2%.
However, if the impact of US tariffs is more pronounced, growth may slow to 1.3%. Although the long-term sales outlook remains generally positive, it is important to note that growth is likely to be constrained by the high level of household debt and a more moderate pace of economic expansion.
Based on the recent GAIKINDO report, the Indonesian LV market dropped by 2% YoY from January to April. Toyota, Isuzu, and Fuso were the only Japanese brands that saw their sales grow during this period, thanks to the new generation Innova, Agya GR Sport, and the newly launched Hilux Rangga for Toyota, as well as Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) for all three brands. Meanwhile, new Chinese players, particularly BYD, Denza, Aion, Chery, and Geely, delivered positive performances due to the expansion of their modelline-ups, although it is important to note that these Chinese brands had not started operations in Q1 2024.
Indonesia's near-term outlook has been lowered by an average of 4% compared to our previous report due to: a) weaker-than-expected sales in March and April; b) Indonesia's Q1 2025 GDP growth of 4.9%, the slowest rate in three and a half years; and c) a weak currency leading to vehicle price hikes and high inflation. As such, Indonesia's 2025 sales were revised downward to 775k units, representing a 3% YoY decline.
In Malaysia, the LV market started the year sluggishly, recording a 24% YoY decline in January. However, volumes gradually improved and achieved growth of 1% YoY in February, 2% YoY in March, and 3% YoY in April, thanks to new model launches from Chinese OEMs such as the BYD Sealion 7 and M6, Denza D9, Jaecoo J7 PHEV, and Omoda C9, along with aggressive sales campaigns from automakers. As a result, Malaysia's LV market improved from a double-digit decline in January to a single-digit decline of 4% YoY from January to April as a whole.
Malaysia's Passenger Vehicle (PV) sales were stronger than expected, and national brands are now set to expand their xEV models in the market. This led us to increase Malaysia's 2025 outlook from 759k units to 772k units, although this still represents a decline from a record high of 818k units in 2024.
As a result, the ASEAN LV sales near-term outlook has been lowered by approximately 1% compared to our previous report, and 2025 sales are now projected to marginally drop from 3.12 million units in 2024 to 3.11 million units in 2025, with downside risks stemming from global trade uncertainty.
This article was first published on GlobalData's dedicated research platform, the .
"ASEAN 2025 sales forecast faces third consecutive year of decline – GlobalData" was originally created and published by Just Auto, a GlobalData owned brand.
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