OPEC+ production increase fuels oil surge amid geopolitical tensions
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Oil surged after OPEC+ increased production less than some had feared and geopolitical concerns flared over Ukraine and Iran.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on Saturday to add 411,000 barrels a day of supply in July, but there were objections from some members including Russia. With a handful of countries lobbying for a pause in July, banks are now split on how many more hikes will come in subsequent months.Monday's gain - Brent crude added as much as 4.4% to top $65 - is also likely being aided by an unwinding of bearish bets taken in advance of the decision. The group had been considering returning an even bigger volume late last week, and speculative short positions in Brent were already the highest since October prior to the meeting."The worst of the fears was laid to rest," said Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics. "Brent shorts are now at the highest level in 2025, which makes sense given the bearish headlines coming out of OPEC. However, this is creating a recipe for a spike if spot healthy market fundamentals continue to roll on."
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Business Standard
3 hours ago
- Business Standard
Oil prices rise on US jobs data and renewed China trade discussions
Crude rose more than $1 a barrel on Friday morning and oil prices were on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks after a favorable US jobs report and resumed trade talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, raising hopes for growth in the world's two largest economies. Brent crude futures gained $1.28, or 1.96 per cent, to $66.62 a barrel by 1649 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $1.34, or 2.11 per cent, to $64.71. On a weekly basis, both benchmarks were on track to settle higher after declining for two straight weeks. Brent has advanced 2.75 per cent this week, while WTI is trading 4.9 per cent higher. "I think the jobs report was Goldilocks," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group. "It was not too hot, not too cold but just right to increase the chances for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve." The US Labor Department's monthly employment report showed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 per cent last month. Employers added 139,000 jobs, which combined with downward revisions to prior months' estimates showed a cooling in labour demand but nothing abrupt; by comparison, job gains averaged 160,000 last year. A rate cut by the US central bank, much desired by the Trump administration, is seen as a way to increase spending, raising demand for petroleum. Flynn also said the planned output hike announced by OPEC+ to begin in July would likely be absorbed by higher demand, keeping supply tightly balanced with demand. China's official Xinhua news agency said trade talks between Xi and Trump took place at Washington's request on Thursday. Trump said the call had led to a "very positive conclusion", adding the US was "in very good shape with China and the trade deal". Canada also continued trade talks with the US, with Prime Minister Mark Carney in direct contact with Trump, according to Industry Minister Melanie Joly. The oil market continued to swing with news on tariff negotiations and data showing how trade uncertainty and the impact of the US levies are flowing through into the global economy. "The potential for increased US sanctions in Venezuela to limit crude exports and the potential for an Israeli strike on Iranian infrastructure add to upside risks for prices," analysts at BMI, a Fitch affiliate, said in a note on Friday. Top exporter Saudi Arabia cut its July crude prices for Asia to near two-month lows. That was a smaller price reduction than expected after OPEC+ agreed to ramp up output by 411,000 barrels per day in July. The kingdom had been pushing for a bigger output hike, part of a broader strategy to win back market share and discipline over-producers in OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. "The market looks balanced in 2Q/3Q on our estimates as oil demand rises in summer and peaks in July-August, matching supply increases from OPEC+," HSBC said in a note. "Thereafter, accelerated OPEC+ hikes should tip the market into a bigger 4Q25 surplus than previously forecasted," the bank added. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
Time of India
4 hours ago
- Time of India
Rate-cut boost: Rupee jumps 11 paise to 85.68 against dollar; market rally and CRR cut lift sentiment
The rupee appreciated by 11 paise to close at 85.68 against the US dollar on Friday, reversing early losses after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered a surprise 50 basis point repo rate cut and announced a phased 100 basis point reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR). The local unit opened weak at 85.91, down 12 paise from the previous close of 85.79. But sentiment turned sharply positive after the RBI's unexpected rate action, which supported growth prospects and lifted domestic equities. The rupee touched an intra-day high of 85.66 and a low of 86 before settling higher, PTI reported. "The rupee led the pack among Asian currencies, buoyed by the RBI's surprise 50 basis point rate cut. This decisive, growth-driven policy move provided a significant boost to the local currency and fuelled optimism among domestic equity investors," said Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. At the policy briefing, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the decision to move to a 'neutral' stance from 'accommodative' reflected a data-dependent outlook going forward. He added that the economy remained resilient, with foreign reserves strong enough to fund 11 months of imports and cover 96% of external debt. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Mistura chinesa faz cabelo crescer e homem fica irreconhecível Resultados em 30 dias Undo The surprise CRR cut is expected to inject additional liquidity into the banking system, lowering borrowing costs and aiding credit transmission. Anurag Mittal, Head of Fixed Income at UTI AMC, called the move "pre-emptive and precise," noting that the central bank's intent to fast-track transmission was clear despite existing surplus liquidity. The RBI retained its GDP growth forecast for FY25 at 6.5%. Despite the rate-induced rally, analysts warned of external risks. A rising dollar index, up 0.25% to 98.98, and weakening Asian currencies could limit further gains for the rupee. Brent crude futures slipped 0.26% to $65.17 per barrel. 'Any further rate cut by the RBI may also pressurise the rupee. However, a positive tone in the domestic markets may support the domestic currency at lower levels,' said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan. He expects the USD-INR pair to trade between 85.40 and 86.25 in the near term. Equity markets reflected the upbeat sentiment. The Sensex closed 747 points higher at 82,189, while the Nifty crossed the 25,000-mark to end at 25,003, up 252 points. Foreign institutional investors were net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 1,009.71 crore, exchange data showed. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Economic Times
6 hours ago
- Economic Times
ET Market Watch: Sensex at 81K, Nifty Near 25K; RBI Rate Cut Hopes Boost Sentiment
Transcript Hi, you're listening to ET Markets Radio, I am your host Neha V Mahajan. Welcome to a fresh episode of ET Market Watch -- where we bring you the latest news from the world of stock markets every single day. Let's get to it:Markets ended on a high note today. The Sensex jumped 443 points to close at 81,442, and Nifty rose 131 points to end at 24,750 — after briefly flirting with the 24,900 mark during the driving the rally?- Pharma and Reliance Industries led the charge, while Nifty Realty and Pharma gained the most—up 1.75% and 1.3% respectively. IT and Metal followed with modest gains.- Broader markets were upbeat too—Smallcaps up 1%, Midcaps up 0.7%.- Rs 2.4 lakh crore was added to investor wealth today, pushing BSE's market cap to Rs 447.61 lakh the global push:A weaker U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields helped boost sentiment. The 10-year U.S. yield fell to 4.355%, raising hopes of a rate cut by the Fed. That's great news for emerging markets like home: All eyes are on the RBI's policy meeting tomorrow. Markets are betting on a 25 bps rate cut—that would make it the third cut in a row, a big boost for liquidity and are back in buying mode, pumping in over Rs 1,000 crore, while DIIs continued their buying streak, investing over Rs 2,500 finally, crude oil prices dipped—Brent at $64.85—thanks to weak U.S. demand data and Saudi price cuts.A softer dollar, falling yields, rate cut hopes, and foreign inflows—India's market bulls have plenty to cheer!
