Prison population projected to boom over next decade
The figures are based on more offenders receiving longer prison sentences.
Photo:
Finn Blackwell
New Zealand's prison population is expected to increase by 36 percent over the next decade.
The
Ministry of Justice projects
there will be 14,230 prisoners in June 2035, up from 10,488 in February 2025.
The projections take into account government policies like the reinstatement of 'Three Strikes', and reforms to cap sentencing discounts and introduce more aggravating factors.
Last year's report, which projected a prison population of 11,317 by June 2034, did not take into account those policies, as they had not yet been passed into law.
"The new policy settings are expected to see more offenders receive prison sentences and for those sentences to be longer," said ministry sector insights general manager Rebecca Parish.
The projected increase takes into account both the remand and sentenced populations.
The number of those on remand is projected to increase steadily over the time period. The sentenced population is expected to increase rapidly until June 2028 and then gradually by June 2035.
Those on remand have spent longer on remand, due to their cases taking longer to go through the courts, but Parish said initiatives were underway to reduce the time taken to resolve cases and the time spent in custodial remand.
The ministry said it released these reports to evaluate long-term trends, and help inform investment, planning and policy decisions.
The report was done in collaboration with Corrections, Police, Crown Law and the Serious Fraud Office.
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