Prison population projected to boom over next decade
Photo:
Finn Blackwell
New Zealand's prison population is expected to increase by 36 percent over the next decade.
The
Ministry of Justice projects
there will be 14,230 prisoners in June 2035, up from 10,488 in February 2025.
The projections take into account government policies like the reinstatement of 'Three Strikes', and reforms to cap sentencing discounts and introduce more aggravating factors.
Last year's report, which projected a prison population of 11,317 by June 2034, did not take into account those policies, as they had not yet been passed into law.
"The new policy settings are expected to see more offenders receive prison sentences and for those sentences to be longer," said ministry sector insights general manager Rebecca Parish.
The projected increase takes into account both the remand and sentenced populations.
The number of those on remand is projected to increase steadily over the time period. The sentenced population is expected to increase rapidly until June 2028 and then gradually by June 2035.
Those on remand have spent longer on remand, due to their cases taking longer to go through the courts, but Parish said initiatives were underway to reduce the time taken to resolve cases and the time spent in custodial remand.
The ministry said it released these reports to evaluate long-term trends, and help inform investment, planning and policy decisions.
The report was done in collaboration with Corrections, Police, Crown Law and the Serious Fraud Office.
Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero
,
a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
RNZ News
an hour ago
- RNZ News
Former Dilworth housemaster Ian Wilson remains an undue risk, declined parole for the sixth time
By Tara Shaskey, Open Justice multimedia journalist of Former Dilworth housemaster Ian Wilson's sixth attempt at parole has been declined. Photo: NZME / Michael Craig Warning:This story discusses sexual assault and may be distressing for some readers. Former Dilworth housemaster Ian Wilson, who is serving jail time for sexually abusing several students, has been grilled on whether he has other victims he has yet to disclose. "Not to my knowledge. I would be very surprised if any other people come forward," Wilson told the Parole Board today. But panel convenor Judge Arthur Tompkins rejected Wilson's response, stating it was "not an answer". "What does that mean - 'not to your knowledge'?" he asked. Wilson repeated his response, claiming he was not aware of anyone else whom he had sexually abused, who had not already laid a complaint against him. Judge Tompkins reminded Wilson that previously, he had only admitted his offending in sequential stages, when confronted with credible accounts by victims as they spoke up. Wilson claimed he had repressed memories of his previous actions. He said he "didn't dwell" on the abuse he inflicted, and it was only on hearing accounts from his victims that he thought, "yes, there's truth to that". "I had put them [memories] away, I tried to move on." The panel pressed him on whether it was a possibility that Wilson had repressed memories of there being further victims. He said there was always that possibility, but repeated he would be "very surprised". One of Wilson's supporters spoke to the board about how Wilson had been reading the Bible and praying to God to reveal any abuse that he may be holding back. "And nothing has been revealed," said the man, who cannot be named. Dilworth School in Auckland has been linked to several historical sexual offending cases. Photo: RNZ / Dan Cook Wilson, who worked at Dilworth from February 1971 until his resignation in December 1996, was arrested in 2020 as part of Operation Beverly, a long-running investigation into historical sexual abuse by several staff at the Auckland-based boys-only boarding school. He was jailed in March 2021 for three years and seven months for indecently assaulting five students between 1975 and 1992 - some of them more than once and over several years. Wilson was still in jail when he had one year and 11 months added to his sentence in August last year after belatedly admitting to having abused five others. At today's hearing, Wilson was denied parole for the sixth time, leaving him to serve most, if not all, of his prison sentence. The board determined he remained an undue risk and scheduled his next hearing for July next year. His statutory release date is 22 September 2026. If granted parole in July, he would be released with parole conditions. However, if he were again declined, he would serve the remaining two months of his sentence and then be served with release conditions. The outcome was welcomed by one of Wilson's victims, Neil Harding, who has fought to keep the former housemaster behind bars for the duration of his sentence. "It's really, really good. I'm really comfortable with that. I'm grateful to the Parole Board that they listened," Harding told NZME. Before the hearing, Harding made submissions to the board, imploring it to ask Wilson if there were other victims. He said he believed there were at least two other people who had yet to come forward. "Of course, if he were truly remorseful, he would tell the truth," Harding said. In his submissions, Harding pointed out that Wilson was part of the school's senior management and claimed Wilson played a significant role in covering up abuse by other parties, as well as his own offending. "The Royal Commission into Abuse in Care named Dilworth School first in institutions that had the highest prevalence of sexual abuse in New Zealand between 1950-1999. "Ian Wilson was responsible, along with others, for the cover-up of sexual abuse of hundreds of young boys." He said Wilson was "sadistic and inhumane" towards students and described him as "a monster". More than 40 former pupils have taken their own lives after the decades of abuse that went on at the school, Harding submitted. "The impact of [Wilson's] abuse, and the role he played, is incalculable." Wilson has denied knowing others were sexually abusing students. "He most definitely knew other paedophiles were active at Dilworth," Harding told the board. He said Wilson continued to lie, including when he claimed his offending ended, and when asked about further victims. Harding rejected Wilson's claims that he had reformed and was remorseful. "If you believe that he has been rehabilitated, then he has again duped and conned the system." At the hearing, Wilson's lawyer submitted that Wilson was an eligible candidate for parole, given that he had a support network that held him accountable, and had approved interim accommodation. Wilson's ill health, proposed special conditions, safety plan, and the treatment he underwent in prison were additional factors for consideration. * This story originally appeared in the New Zealand Herald . If it is an emergency and you feel like you or someone else is at risk, call 111.
RNZ News
an hour ago
- RNZ News
Bill to ban protesting outside private homes passes first reading
Standing in for Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith, James Meager said the bill would be a welcome relief to many MPs, officials, and other individuals who had been targeted. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone Legislation to make protesting outside someone's home an offence has passed its first reading at Parliament. The bill would apply to demonstrations directed at a specific person outside their private residence, considering factors like how 'unreasonable' the protest is. Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori opposed the bill, expressing concerns it could override the right to freedom of protest, and there were existing tools police could use. Standing in for Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith, James Meager said the bill would be a welcome relief to many MPs, officials, and other individuals who had been targeted. He said the bill was a balance of rights and freedoms. "The protection of New Zealanders' privacy is fundamentally important in our society, as is the ability to protest. The government upholds both of these values," he said. Meager said the public's right to protest was protected by the Bill of Rights Act, but demonstrations outside homes could impede on someone's right to privacy. "Unreasonable, disruptive intrusions into people's private spaces are simply unacceptable," Meager said. The government believed existing legislation did not clearly reflect the importance of privacy in the context of demonstrations, meaning police had difficulty in applying offences like disorderly behaviour. The offence would only apply if the protest was targeted at a specific person outside their private residence, meaning marches that passed by someone's house would not be covered. Time of day, duration, the demonstrators' actions, noise levels, and distance to the premises would also be factors in determining the offence. Despite Labour leader Chris Hipkins earlier expressing his concerns that protest had become personalised, Labour did not support the bill. Labour's Duncan Webb. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone Its justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said the bill "chips away" at free speech rights, and New Zealand could not call itself a liberal democracy while passing legislation that prohibited demonstration. "The point of political action is to disrupt. It is not to be nice, it's not to be convenient. Protest is disruptive, that's what a protest is." Webb acknowledged other MPs have experienced people acting inappropriately outside their residences, but the legislation was targeted to suppress political action. "If that's your problem, the easy fix is actually to fix the offence of disorderly behaviour, and make it clear that disorder that flows into a private premise can in fact still amount to that offence." The Green Party also opposed the bill. MP Celia Wade-Brown said threats to people's safety or their families' safety were unacceptable, but the new offence had a disproportionate punishment. "Three months in prison, $2000 fine, this is not a parking ticket." Te Pāti Māori MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. Photo: VNP / Phil Smith Te Pāti Māori MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi said if police felt they could not apply existing legislation to remove someone behaving unreasonably outside another's home, then police should "check their practice." Speaking in support of the bill, ACT's Todd Stephenson accepted there were two competing rights in the legislation, but the Select Committee phase would be a chance for a discussion about how the balance could be struck. "It's worthwhile at least going through the Select Committee process and uncovering what powers the police do or don't have currently, but they're saying they don't have sufficient powers." Casey Costello from New Zealand First said it was a "sad, sad indictment on our democracy" that the legislation was even needed. "We know we have politically motivated groups who will purposely release private residential addresses of elected officials, of businesspeople, in order to invoke an intimidatory approach to dealing with decisions." Costello disagreed it was a limitation on protesting, but a protection for people's privacy. "It is absolutely reasonable to say that we will ensure that voices can be heard, but my children, my mother, my family will not have to bear the price of the decisions or the public position that I hold," she said. The Justice Committee will now consider the bill, and will report back within four months.
RNZ News
an hour ago
- RNZ News
CBD brothel plan abandoned after mayoral candidate's condemnation
The location of a potential new brothel on Hastings' Heretaunga St West. Photo: Jack Riddell A man with plans to open a brothel in Hastings' central city says he's been forced to abandon it because of what he claims is intolerable pressure from local body election candidates. Hardeep Singh had applied to the Hastings City Council's District Licensing Committee for a liquor licence for a premises on Heretaunga St West, in a block of shops between Nelson St and King St. The application said the nature of the business set to be conducted under the licence was "brothel". On Wednesday, Hastings councillor Damon Harvey - who is running for mayor - posted a photo of the application on Facebook with his condemnation of it. Singh claimed his landlord told him his phone had immediately started ringing with people against the idea of a brothel, and he had decided he did not want one in the premises. "I am very disappointed. I have lost a lot of money," Singh said. "I would like to ask those councillors who have been complaining what they are going to do to improve the nightlife in Hastings? "After 4pm its a ghost town. I am not doing anything illegal. I was trying to create a safe place for sex workers instead of them being on the streets." Harvey wrote on his post: "Well respected developers along with you - the ratepayer, have invested a lot into the revitalisation of Hastings and the last thing we need is a brothel on the main street of the CBD. "Brothels are a compliant activity, but it comes down to 'right business and the right location,'" Harvey said. "This area of the CBD needs an uplift. I've talked to many businesses in this part of town, and they want to have an enhanced hospitality and retail block." Mayoral candidates Marcus Buddo and Steve Gibson said they also opposed a brothel in the city. "No, I don't think we need a brothel in Hastings," Buddo said. Gibson said, as a Christian, he couldn't support a brothel in the community. "It degrades family values and undermines community wellbeing. The same goes for this council promoting drag queens reading to children," Gibson said. "Hastings deserves leadership that protects childhood innocence and strengthens, not erodes, the values that hold our families together." Mayoral candidate Wendy Schollum disagreed with the backlash. "Sex work has been legal in NZ for more than 20 years, and sex workers deserve safe, regulated workplaces like anyone else," Schollum said. "As the Chair of the City Centres Forum, my concern is not about legality, it's about ensuring the new operators engage constructively with their business neighbours. The wider CBD ecosystem must remain vibrant and safe for all." Wellington regional co-ordinator of the Aotearoa NZ Sex Workers' Collective Cherida Fraser said people should welcome new brothels, especially in the regions. Fraser said sex workers in the regions don't have many options. "If they aren't happy with their conditions, this gives them an option. "There's also safety in numbers. We were looking forward to working with the brothel and supplying them with free condoms." She said there were about 3500 to 5000 sex workers in New Zealand at any given time. "It's difficult to put a precise number on it because the stigma means many of them keep quiet." Anna Buckley (L) and Nevaeh Howard from Anna's Beauty Lounge and Academy on Heretaunga St W, right next door to the proposed brothel. Photo: Jack Riddell Anna Buckley's business, Anna's Beauty Lounge and Academy, was right next door to the proposed brothel. "I feel like it's not something that our community needs on its main street of Hastings," Buckley said. "We are a training facility with young students. And just on a moral ground, it doesn't sit easy with me." But Singh said the plan for the brothel's hours was that neighbouring businesses would be closed. "It is a night time business, so it wouldn't affect them." Hastings Business Association general manager Lucinda Perry said as an organisation representing the interests of Hastings CBD businesses, it had significant concerns about the impact a brothel in the heart of Hastings' main street would have. "Our members work hard to create a welcoming, safe, and family-friendly environment that attracts shoppers, visitors, and investment," Perry said. "A business of this nature is not consistent with that vision. We believe it would undermine the work that has gone into revitalising our city centre. We respect the legal right for such businesses to operate, but strongly believe the CBD main street is not the appropriate location," she said. "The focus should remain on growing a vibrant, positive mix of retail, hospitality, and services that strengthens Hastings as a destination of choice." The landlord, who Local Democracy Reporting, has agreed not to name, said he didn't know his premises was going to be used as a brothel. A Hastings District Council spokesperson said the brothel would comply with the District Plan if it opened. "It is a commercial activity in a commercial zone. A building consent has been issued to conduct some alterations within the building." LDR is local body journalism co-funded by RNZ and NZ On Air. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
