Can genetics predict obesity? New study may help spot risk in kids before it is too late
polygenic risk scores
(PGS).
Led by over 600 scientists from 500 institutions worldwide, and drawing data from The Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium and 23andMe, the study analyzed genetic information from more than 5 million individuals. Their goal? To develop a more precise way to predict a person's likelihood of developing obesity, starting from childhood.
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What the Study Found
Current obesity risk tools largely rely on family history, diet, and lifestyle. But this study's new ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry polygenic risk scores proved about twice as effective in predicting obesity in adulthood compared to existing assessments.
In people of European ancestry, for example, the score accounted for 17.6% of an individual's risk of developing a high Body Mass Index (BMI)—a key indicator of obesity. The study included a broad participant base: 70% had European ancestry, 14.4% were Hispanic, 8.4% East Asian, 4.6% African, and 1.5% South Asian.
But while the tool is promising, it isn't a crystal ball. 'Obesity is not only about genetics,' said Dr. Ruth Loos, study co-author and professor at the University of Copenhagen's Novo Nordisk Foundation Center, in an interview with NBC News. 'Genetics alone can never accurately predict obesity… other factors, such as lifestyle, need to be part of the predictions.'
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The Global Obesity Epidemic
The urgency behind such research is clear. Obesity is now considered one of the world's fastest-growing public health threats. According to
World Health Organization
(WHO) data:
In 2022, 2.5 billion adults were overweight, including over 890 million with obesity.
Childhood obesity is skyrocketing—35 million children under five were overweight in 2024, and over 390 million adolescents aged 5–19 were overweight in 2022.
Obesity was a factor in 3.7 million global deaths in 2021 alone.
Perhaps more troubling is the shift in obesity prevalence from wealthier nations to low- and middle-income countries, where children face a 'double burden' of both undernutrition and rising obesity rates. The WHO warns that these children often live in environments where high-calorie, nutrient-poor foods are cheap and accessible, but healthier choices and safe spaces for exercise are not.
Why Early Detection Matters
Obesity is much more than a number on a scale. It increases the risk of nearly 200 diseases, including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, asthma, and certain cancers. For children, the stakes are even higher: obesity not only impacts their physical and mental health but also academic performance and social wellbeing due to stigma and bullying.
Importantly, childhood obesity often carries into adulthood, setting the stage for chronic illness and shorter lifespans. 'Children with obesity are very likely to be adults with obesity,' notes the WHO.
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What Can Be Done?
While genetic scores like the one developed in this study could revolutionize early detection, experts caution that there's no one-size-fits-all solution. Dr. Karen Hacker, director of the CDC's National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention, told USA TODAY that effective obesity prevention must address broader social determinants of health—including access to healthcare, nutritious food, physical activity, and education.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends multifaceted strategies: from medication and surgery for treatment, to policy-driven efforts ensuring access to healthy food, safe physical environments, and stigma-free support systems.
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