logo
Car dealers shield buyers from tariff price hikes in April

Car dealers shield buyers from tariff price hikes in April

Yahoo13-05-2025
The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed new car prices were flat, a surprise as many felt President Trump's auto sector tariffs would boost prices. But inventory at dealerships may have shielded car buyers from tariff price hikes, at least for now.
In April, new vehicle prices came in at no change from the previous month and up 0.3% year over year. Used vehicle prices were down 0.5%, and up 1.5% from a year ago.
The report comes on the heels of Trump's 25% foreign-made auto tariffs that began on April 3, affecting not only European and Asian manufacturers, but also Big Three automakers GM (GM), Ford (F), and Stellantis (STLA), which import vehicles from Canada and Mexico, as well as a few models from China.
The expectation was for new vehicle prices to climb higher, reflecting the passing of tariff costs on to consumers, as well as a concurrent hike in used vehicle prices as buyers shifted to preowned vehicles.
A big reason price hikes were minimized could have been dealers and automakers eating into their preexisting new car inventory, which includes imports that were not tariffed. Dealers were not shy about promoting tariff-free inventory to buyers as a sales tactic in the competitive new car sales landscape.
Not surprisingly, the number of cars on the lot is shrinking.
Vehicle data and buying site CarPro reports that overall industry stock in April dropped to 2.6 million vehicles from around 3 million, with days of supply falling to just over 60.
The average is around 70 days of supply, CarPro said, with different manufacturers maintaining different levels. For instance, Toyota (TM) has around 10 to 15 days of supply, whereas GM maintains around 50 to 60 days. Stellantis, during its troubled summer of 2024, had over 100 days' supply in the US, though that has come down substantially.
Meanwhile, Hyundai (up 19%), Honda (up 17%), Ford (up 15%), and Toyota (up 8%) saw huge sales gains in April. (Note: GM and Stellantis do not report monthly sales.)
Another reason why prices may have stayed unchanged is that several automakers, including Hyundai, guaranteed pricing through the end of May, CarPro said. The firm also said shipments will soon be tariff-exposed, and further supply and pricing pressures are expected in the weeks ahead.
The question is how long the automakers can hold the line on prices.
'Across OEMs, we continue to monitor post-tariff reactions, with GM saying that it will not raise prices across the board but continue to see consistent pricing (up 0.5%-1.0% for the year), and Ford extending employee pricing on most vehicles until July 4 (vs. June 2 previously) while hiking prices on Mexico-built vehicles,' Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu wrote in a note Tuesday morning.
Kelley Blue Book (KBB), which tracks average transaction prices (ATP) at the dealership level, actually saw prices climb 2.5% month over month in April, more than double the average monthly move in April.
A KBB spokesman told Yahoo Finance that timing and different data sources may have led to the deviations between KBB's numbers and the government's CPI reading. CPI data may be a bit older than KBB's, the spokesman said, meaning CPI data may be more of a trailing indicator than KBB's.
With tariffs on foreign-made autos still on the table, prices are expected to rise, meaning April's lack of change in pricing may be a blip.
As Deutsche Bank noted above, Ford is already raising prices on its Mexican-built Ford Maverick, Bronco Sport, and Mustang Mach-E EV.
Pras Subramanian is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Analyst expects gold to fall off the 'Wall of Worry'
Analyst expects gold to fall off the 'Wall of Worry'

Miami Herald

time11 minutes ago

  • Miami Herald

Analyst expects gold to fall off the 'Wall of Worry'

Investors have been climbing the proverbial wall of worry to new record highs on the stock market this year, fearful with each step that the market is about to have a reversal. Meanwhile, gold's move to record highs has been far more impressive, and buyers seem to have no worry that the end of their rally is in sight. Stocks, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500, were up roughly 9.4% through August 8 – though they were up nearly 28% since the market bottom on April 9, the day when President Donald Trump paused tariffs just days after announcing them. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Meanwhile, gold has soared by 29.5% this year, through August 8, standing at roughly $3,460 an ounce. Its gain since the post-tariff announcement low is roughly 18%, but gold also didn't suffer as much as stocks in the meltdown that accompanied the tariff news. The three-year annualized average return on gold, as measured by SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) , is 23.4%, well above its historic averages; from 1971 to 2024, the annualized return on the shiny stuff was just under 8%. Gold's rise hasn't been as a result of its traditional role as a hedge against inflation, because it normally takes a protracted time period with prices rising by more than 5% for gold to kick in that way. Instead, gold has been seen as an ideal hedge against geopolitical risk, the fighting in Ukraine and Gaza, the prospect of trade wars coming from the tariffs, and more. With no end in sight to those problems, plenty of investors have become gold bugs, looking to precious metals for protection and profits in times of uncertainty. More investing: Analyst says popular meme stock is worth less than zeroVeteran fund manager turns heads with Palantir stock price targetTop analyst sends Apple CEO bold message about its future And while buying gold now – or stocks, for that matter – can feel a bit like showing up late to the party, most industry watchers are suggesting that full-steam ahead is more likely than some reversion to the mean. While there is no shortage of caution and nervousness, there is no widespread call for recession even into 2025. Plenty of market observers saying that rate cuts (whenever they start) and the economic benefits of deregulation – the next big component of President Trump's economic plan – will offset the headwinds to keep things moving forward, albeit moderately. And plenty of gold analysts make a case for the gold rally to continue. "This gold bull market might be a little bit old in the tooth … it started in 2016," said Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Discovery Fund (MIDSX) , in an interview on the August 4 edition of "Money Life with Chuck Jaffe." "It's up over 300% in those nine years. That has not happened very often. The average bull market for gold is about 53 months, according to my research, and this is over 110, almost twice the normal length." Related: Veteran strategist unveils updated gold price forecast Still, Winmill insisted gold is not overpriced: "If you adjust the former high, which was reached back in 1988, for inflation, we're actually below that high, which inflation-adjusted would be about $3,500 an ounce." "The basket of gold stocks represented by the Gold Bugs Index hit a high of 600 in August of 2011 when the gold price hit 1800," Winmill added, "and that index is well below that now, in the 400 range, about 430. So, on that score, we've got 50% to go in gold stocks." On the other side of that trade is veteran commodities and futures analyst Carley Garner, senior strategist at DeCarley Trading, who said in an interview from the August 5 edition of "Money Life" that it's a "sell-the-rallies market in both gold and silver, and the reason I think that is I believe the U.S. dollar has bottomed, and I think it will continue to work its way higher." Garner said that move in the dollar changes the landscape for a lot of commodities, but particularly the metals, and especially in times when gold "is probably the most volatile it's ever been." It's not the volatility that concerns Garner so much as the price, especially because, she said, "A lot of people are putting money in gold just because it's going up." "But I've lived through 2011," she added, "and I remember all of the same stories that are circulating in gold, all the reasons to buy it. 'The central banks are buying this and that. You can't trust the dollar,' so on and so forth. "All of those things were narratives in 2011, and gold topped, and then took a 50% haircut, and it took a decade to get back." Garner added that a 50% haircut is not just a possible scenario, but also "might actually be what could be around the corner." Garner noted that she isn't trying to predict anything, but rather is reading the probabilities. While her take on gold is sour, her take on the stock market isn't much better, with a probability of being much lower than current levels before it can trade significantly above them. She noted a trend line in the monthly chart of the S&P 500 futures, looking at high points, that "comes in right around 6,000 [on the S&P index]. So can we go above 6500? Sure. But the odds that we see higher than that here in the next handful of months, are pretty slim. A more likely scenario is we get continuation of the consolidation or the pullback. But the problem is, I don't see any good support on a monthly chart until we get into the low 5000s." In her personal portfolio, Garner noted that she is heavily overweight Treasury securities. She has used this strategy before to ride out rough patches until the market made her more optimistic. "Treasuries, regardless of where you look at the curve, are paying 4% to 5%," Garner said. "And if you hold expiration, you get that money.…So I'm just playing the odds here. And the odds are Treasuries are [a] much better buy than stocks." Related: Legendary Wall Street forecaster Bob Doll is having his best year The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.

JPMorgan revamps strong forecast on Federal Reserve rate cuts
JPMorgan revamps strong forecast on Federal Reserve rate cuts

Miami Herald

time41 minutes ago

  • Miami Herald

JPMorgan revamps strong forecast on Federal Reserve rate cuts

Buzzy rumblings are escalating that the Federal Reserve is on the cusp of a dovish pivot to lower interest rates in your wallet and household budget. JPMorgan has revised its outlook as to when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter JPMorgan cited mounting uncertainty around President Donald Trump's temporary Fed appointee, plus growing signs of weakness in the labor market. Economists and market watchers are concerned over what is perceived as the president's efforts to politicize the independent central bank's monetary policymaking. Related: Trump makes surprise decision on Federal Reserve There's also uncertainty around the impact of President Trump's tariffs on inflation. In addition, many worry the Trump's administration's aggressive immigration campaign is decimating the low-wage and blue-collar work force, while the AI revolution wipes out entry-level roles for many new college graduates. "This is an unusual administration to say the least,'' Kevin O'Leary of "Shark Tank" told CNN. Image source: Watson/Getty Images President Trump announced on Aug. 7 that he was nominating Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran to temporarily fill a vacant Federal Reserve Board seat. Miran, a Trump loyalist, has joined the president and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in heavily criticizing the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell over interest rates. Miran, if confirmed by the Senate this fall, will serve in an interim appointment lasting until Jan. 31, 2026. The Harvard-educated labor economist advocates stronger control over the Fed by the executive branch, shorter terms for the Board of Governors and nationalizing regional Federal Reserve banks. Analysts warned that his proximity to the president's aggressive stance on interest rates may increase a growing internal divide within the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policymaking panel that sets benchmark interest rates. Related: A divided Federal Reserve mulls interest rate cut after wild week Danske Bank's chief strategist Frederik Romedahl told Bloomberg that Miran's appointment "adds some uncertainty," even if it's not a total game-changer. Market watchers like Andrew Brenner have deemed Miran controversial and questioned his business experience. Others say the Miran appointment is unlikely to affect the expected pace of rate cuts in the short term because of the macroeconomic dynamics rippling through the economy. Long term, the president could gain two appointees to the Fed board in 2025. First, he needs a permanent replacement for Miran's role (which very well could be Miran, depending on the president's whims). Second, Powell's term as chair ends in May, and he has said he hasn't decided if he plans to serve out the rest of his term into 2028. Historically, Fed chairs leave the board when their chair terms expire. Theoretically, that would give President Trump four seats on the seven-member board. Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller are both Trump appointees from his first administration. Waller is considered the current top candidate to replace Powell next year. The Federal Reserve's dual congressional mandate requires monetary policy that balances low unemployment and low inflation using interest rates as the benchmark tool. Higher interest rates lower inflation but increase job losses. Lower interest rates decrease unemployment but increase inflation. More Federal Reserve: GOP plan to remove Fed Chair Powell escalatesTrump deflects reports on firing Fed Chair Powell 'soon'Former Federal Reserve official sends bold message on 'regime change' The president's personal and professional attacks on Powell have escalated since the FOMC voted in July to hold the benchmark Federal Funds Rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%. The vote was noteworthy because Waller and Bowman both dissented, saying that emerging weakness in the labor market justified a .25 percentage-point rate cut. That was the first dissenting FOMC vote since 1993. The last rate cut was in December 2024. President Trump wants a 3-point cut, saying it is necessary to curb recession fears, ease the stagnant housing market with lower mortgages, and reduce the interest on the federal deficit. Economists and markets must consider not only data but also volatile political dynamics now swirling around the Fed. JPMorgan had originally forecast one .25 percentage-point rate cut in December 2025. It pulled that forward, forecasting a .25 cut at the Sept. 17 Fed meeting, Reuters reported. JPMorgan added three additional .25 cuts before the Fed pauses. The note did not give a firm timeline for those cuts. Analyst Michael Feroli wrote that "the risk-management considerations at the next meeting may go beyond balancing employment and inflation risks." Meanwhile, market odds for a September cut have surged, with the CME Group's FedWatch tool forecasting the likelihood at 88.9%. Related: Consumers fear inflation as tariffs hit home: Federal Reserve report The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.

4 Economic Events That Could Affect Your Portfolio This Week, August 11-15, 2025
4 Economic Events That Could Affect Your Portfolio This Week, August 11-15, 2025

Business Insider

timean hour ago

  • Business Insider

4 Economic Events That Could Affect Your Portfolio This Week, August 11-15, 2025

Stocks rebounded on Friday, closing the week firmly in the green – the market's third winning week out of the last four. The S&P 500 (SPX) rallied for its strongest week since late June, closing on the brink of a record after gaining 2.43%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished the week up 1.35%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) surged by 3.73%, reaching a new record. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. After the prior week's pull‑back, investors bought the dip again, demonstrating conviction in the rally's viability – grounded in solid fundamentals. Around 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 earnings, with 81% beating expectations – the best since Q3 2023. In tech, more than 90% have exceeded forecasts. These strong results have prompted analysts to lift Q3 earnings expectations. Despite ongoing tariff-related and broader macro uncertainties, the U.S. corporate sector remains resilient – with expectations that this strength will persist, assuming the economy holds. Companies' managements and boards are reflecting that confidence through share repurchases. In July alone, U.S. companies announced a record $166 billion in stock buybacks – the highest for any July on record, and year-to-date repurchases now total nearly $926 billion, exceeding the previous record. IPO activity is also robust – as of August 5, 2025, there have been 202 IPOs in the U.S., up 80% over the same period last year. The average effective U.S. tariff rate is at its highest level since the Great Depression – yet today's economy and corporate sector are far more advanced and adaptive. Tariffs have already nudged prices upward, and a short-term inflation bump is expected throughout this year and next. Still, the U.S. economy – dynamic and resilient – is adjusting. Companies are shifting supply chains, and because tariffs were announced ahead of time, they had ample time to prepare. Some sectors may even benefit from increased domestic investment and reshoring. On the household front, while tariffs could dent purchasing power via higher prices, the impact should be limited and temporary, not a sustained driver of inflation. Future trade agreements are expected to ease tensions and help contain inflation and growth risks. Last week's rally underscores U.S. resilience — stocks advanced even as Trump's tariff rollout accelerated. In fact, some signs of economic softness may have aided the rally, by heightening odds of a 0.25% rate cut in September. With valuations rich but still not technically overbought, a rate cut could inject fresh momentum heading into the Q3 earnings season. Nevertheless, analysts broadly agree that the path ahead may remain choppy, with trade, macro, and geopolitical developments likely to test investor resolve. Four Economic Events Here are four key economic events that could affect your portfolio this week. For a full listing of additional economic reports, check out the TipRanks Economic Calendar. » July CPI and CPI ex. Food and Energy (Core CPI) – Tuesday, 08/12 – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the two key measures of inflation (the other being the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, or PCE). Policymakers, businesses, and consumers closely monitor the CPI report, as it reflects price trends across the economy, shapes consumer spending and business sentiment, and directly influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. » July Producer Price Index (PPI) and PPI ex. Food and Energy – Thursday, 08/14 – This report reflects input costs for producers and manufacturers. Since the PPI measures the cost of producing consumer goods – which ultimately affects retail prices – it is viewed as a leading indicator of inflationary pressures. As such, it often foreshadows the following month's CPI and plays a critical role in shaping inflation expectations among policymakers. » July Retail Sales – Friday, 08/15 – This report indicates how much consumers are spending on durable and non-durable goods. Retail Sales is a leading indicator of economic health, offering insight into the current quarter's economic growth and the inflationary pressures stemming from consumer demand. » August Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (preliminary readings) – Friday, 08/15 – These reports summarize the findings of a monthly survey measuring consumer confidence and long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. Consumer confidence directly affects spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP. The inflation expectations component is also factored into the Federal Reserve's Index of Inflation Expectations.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store