‘Rain of Ruin' Review: Fire From the Skies
Of the lingering controversies of World War II, perhaps the most intensely debated is America's bombing of Japan's cities. The two most dramatic forms—the firebombing raids in the spring of 1945, which killed more than a quarter-million civilians, and the better-known atomic bombings that summer—pitted morality against necessity as both sides groped for a way to end the war on acceptable terms.
The air campaigns have been covered from many angles in recent books. Malcolm Gladwell's 'The Bomber Mafia' (2021) focuses on the apostles of strategic bombing, notably Maj. Gen. Curtis LeMay, the chief architect of the firebombings. James M. Scott's brilliant 'Black Snow' (2022) balances America's drive to end the war against heartrending stories of ordinary Japanese citizens caught in the bombsights. Max Hastings's 'Retribution' (2007) frames the bombings in the context of the wider war for Asia.
In 'Rain of Ruin' Richard Overy, a British historian whose books include 'The Dictators' (2004), distills the atomic bombing campaign—and its precursor, the incendiary strikes—into a single moral issue. As he writes, 'The question asked is usually 'was it necessary?'; the question, however, should really be 'why was it thought to be necessary at the time?''
The strategy of scorching densely populated cities wasn't the initiative of a single, bloody-minded general of the Strangelove stripe. 'Area bombing' of urban centers—a shift from pinpoint bombing of factories and military targets—had been studied by the U.S. Army Air Forces since 1943. The Office of Strategic Services analyzed Japan's urban demographics to find areas most vulnerable to fire. Air Forces analysts dissected the results of Britain's carpet bombing of German cities, and a replica village of typical Japanese homes was erected in a Utah desert to test the effects of napalm attacks.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hamilton Spectator
39 minutes ago
- Hamilton Spectator
South Korea's new President Lee vows to pursue talks with North and bolster ties with US and Japan
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea's new President Lee Jae-myung vowed Wednesday to restart dormant talks with North Korea and bolster a trilateral partnership with the U.S. and Japan, as he laid out key policy goals for his single, five-year term. Lee, who rose from childhood poverty to become South Korea's leading liberal politician vowing to fight inequality and corruption, formally began his term earlier Wednesday, hours after winning a snap election that was triggered in April by the removal of then-President Yoon Suk Yeol over his ill-fated imposition of martial law late last year. In his inaugural address at the National Assembly, Lee said that his government will deal with North Korean nuclear threats and its potential military aggressions with 'strong deterrence' based on the solid South Korea-U.S. military alliance. But he said he would 'open a communication channel with North Korea and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula through talks and cooperation.' He said he'll pursue pragmatic diplomacy with neighboring countries and boost trilateral Seoul-Washington-Tokyo cooperation based on the robust South Korea-U.S. alliance. 'Through pragmatic diplomacy based on national interests, we will turn the crisis posed by the major shift in global economic and security landscapes into an opportunity to maximize our national interests,' Lee said. Security and economic challenges lie ahead It was unclear whether Lee's election would cause any major, immediate shift in South Korea's foreign policy. Lee, previously accused by critics of tilting toward China and North Korea and away from the U.S. and Japan, has recently repeatedly stressed South Korea's alliance with the U.S. as the foundation of its foreign policy and avoided any contentious remarks that would raise questions on his views on the U.S. and Japan. 'We'll have to now see if the pressures of office will cause Lee Jae-myung to govern from the center — at least when it comes to matters of national security and the alliance with the United States,' said Ankit Panda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The toughest external challenges awaiting Lee are U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy and North Korea's expanding military partnerships with Russia . But experts earlier said whoever becomes president can't do much to secure major progress in South Korea's favor on those issues. During his inauguration speech, Lee didn't directly mention trade issues with the U.S. Allies react The U.S. and Japan said they congratulated Lee's election and expressed their commitments to developing three-way cooperation. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he wants to hold summit talks with Lee 'as early as possible,' saying he hopes to further promote bilateral ties, both public and commercial. The U.S. State Department said that Seoul and Washington share 'an ironclad commitment' to the alliance grounded in their mutual defense treaty, shared values and deep economic ties. It's unclear how North Korea would react to Lee's speech, as it has shunned any talks with South Korea since 2019. North Korea in recent years has supplied weapons and troops to support Russia's war against Ukraine, and South Korea, the U.S. and their partners suspect Russia might in return transfer high-tech technologies to North Korea to help it perfect its nuclear weapons program. Russia's Tass news agency said Wednesday that one of President Vladimir Putin's top security officials, Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, has arrived in Pyongyang for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in the latest sign of the countries' alignment over Putin's war in Ukraine. Lee said revitalizing a slowing domestic economy would be his top priority and that his government would immediately launch an emergency task force to wage a 'head-on battle' against the threats of recession. He also promised more aggressive government spending to help spur economic activity. South Korea's central bank last week cut its key interest rate and sharply lowered its growth outlook for 2025 to 0.8%, as it moved to counter Trump's tariff hikes and weak domestic demand worsened by recent political turmoil. South Korea still faces political divide Lee also called for unity to address the country's stark political divide deepened after Yoon's martial law debacle, saying that he will 'answer the people's solemn call to let hope bloom over deep and painful wounds.' Lee still promised a thorough investigation into the circumstances surrounding Yoon's martial law imposition, describing it as a 'rebellion that seized people's sovereignty with arms.' Yoon and some of his top military and police officers already stand trial on high-stakes rebellion charges in connection with martial law. Lee's push to bring those involved in Yoon's martial law stunt accountable has subsequently caused speculations among his opponents that he would launch political revenge against Yoon associates and senior prosecutors whom he previously accused of fabricating evidence to initiate criminal charges against him. Lee faces five trials on corruption and other allegations, but experts say those trials will likely stop during his term because the South Korean constitution gives a sitting president immunity from most criminal prosecutions. Lee also reiterated his campaign vows to reduce inequality and pledged to address the imbalance between the greater Seoul capital area and less developed regions. He said that 'the polarization fueled by inequality is now hindering further growth.' Lee's term began immediately without the usual two-month transition period after the National Election Commission formally confirmed his election victory. __ Associated Press writer Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo contributed to this report. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Morning Bid: No 'best offers' yet as tariff deadline looms
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee Today is the deadline for U.S. trading partners to submit their "best offer" to avoid punishing import tax rates, the same day that U.S. duties on imported steel and aluminium kick in, and investors are more jittery than usual. So far, only Britain has struck a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. during Trump's 90-day pause on a wider array of tariffs. That pause is set to expire in about five weeks and investors have been worried about the lack of progress in hashing out deals. Adding to the angst, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo has not received a letter from Washington asking for its best proposals on trade talks. The on-again-off-again tariff pronouncements from Trump this year have investors fleeing U.S. assets and looking for safe havens and alternatives, including gold. They expect trade uncertainties will take a heavy toll on the global economy. The main question in financial markets has been where the money that usually flowed into U.S. assets will end up going. For years, money managers embraced the fatalistic presumption that "there-is-no-alternative" (TINA ... yes, markets love acronyms) but perhaps there are options now. As Manishi Raychaudhuri, the founder and CEO of Emmer Capital Partners Ltd, puts it: While Europe may be the obvious destination, relative value metrics may favour emerging Asia. The data so far does not give a complete picture. But what it does show is investors are lowering their exposure to U.S. assets, and only time will tell where they end up. Asian markets rose on Wednesday, boosted by tech stocks as traders hope a deal could still be possible if and when U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping talk this week. The spotlight in Asia was also on South Korean assets. Seoul's benchmark share index surged to 10-month top and the currency firmed as liberal presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung's election victory raised expectations for swift economic stimulus and market reforms. European futures point to a slightly higher open ahead of a series of manufacturing data from the region and as the European Central Bank starts its policy meeting. The ECB is all but certain to cut rates on Thursday and stay on its easing cycle as muted wage growth, a strong euro and lukewarm economic growth all point to easing inflation. Data on Tuesday showed euro zone inflation in May eased below the ECB target of 2%. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: Economic events: May PMI data for UK, euro zone, Germany and France Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here. (By Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Why America's aging population will be a problem for stocks — and your retirement
One reliable indicator of investor behavior suggests that stock valuations in developed markets will peak in the next decade or so and then begin a long-term decline. The measurement for this prediction is demographics — in this case, the aging population of America and other developed markets. My daughter's boyfriend, a guest in my home, offered to powerwash part of my house — then demanded money What on Earth is going on with the American consumer? My father-in-law has dementia and is moving in with us. Can we invoice him for a caregiver? 20 stocks primed for rapid growth while trading at half of Nvidia's valuation Strategists forecast a sizzling summer for small-cap stocks Long-term demographic trends are of little concern if you are a short-term-focused investor. But demography becomes quite important if you're a decade or more from retirement and trying to devise an appropriate financial planning strategy for your nonworking years. Researchers have found that the ratio of a country's middle-aged population to its elderly is highly correlated with the long-term cycles of its stock market. This ratio — known among demographers as the 'M/O ratio' or 'middle-old ratio' — is plotted in the chart below. It is calculated by dividing the number of those 40-49 by the number of those 60-69. (The M/O ratio data in the chart are from Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research.) There is a distinct connection between the long-term trend shifts in the M/O ratio and the S&P 500 SPX. For example, the ratio hit a peak in 2000, coinciding with the end of the go-go years of the 1990s and the top of the internet bubble. The ratio then declined for more than a decade — a period coinciding with the global financial crisis and the 2008-09 bear market. The ratio has been in an uptrend since the mid-2010s. The correlation is not perfect. The M/O ratio didn't hit bottom until several years after the financial crisis, for example, by which point the stock market had already embarked on a new bull market. Furthermore, the ratio is of no help in predicting shorter-term bear markets, such as the one in 2022. Nevertheless, the M/O ratio's correlation with longer-term cycles is impressive, according to John Geanakoplos, an economics professor at Yale University and co-author of perhaps the topic's seminal academic paper, published in 2002. He found evidence that demography provides 'a single explanation' for the alternating 20-year periods of boom and bust since World War II. Notice that the focus of Geanakoplos' research is on the relative sizes of different population cohorts rather than the size of a country's entire population. That's important because many on Wall Street focus on overall population when making doomsday predictions about the future of the world. The chart also shows the path the M/O ratio will take through 2050, rising until the mid-2030s (though never getting to the level it did at the top of the internet bubble) and then declining through 2050. When interpreting this, Geanakoplos says it's important to focus on both the ratio's trend as well as its absolute level. He said in an email that the data suggest 'the demography effect [will be] slightly smaller going forward, but [with] stock market growth slowing in the early [20]30s.' You should plan accordingly in your retirement portfolio. Since the demographic projections aren't precise, this analysis suggests that over the coming decade, you would want to start reducing your equity exposure level to even lower levels than is suggested by the traditional glide path employed by target-date funds and financial planners. By the time you reach 65, for example, the glide path employed by Vanguard's target-date funds suggests that you should dedicate 30% of your retirement portfolio to U.S. equities. The dictates of demography would have you even less exposed to stocks at that time. The Vanguard glide path also calls for a 65-year-old investor to allocate an additional 20% to non-U.S. equities. Whether you maintain that allocation depends on the country and region of the world. The average non-U.S. country is also projected to have a lower M/O ratio in 25 years, according to the World Bank, though the decline between now and 2050 will be less than in the U.S. Many emerging market countries in Africa and Asia will have higher M/O ratios in 25 years, according to the World Bank's projections. So if you follow the demographic projections, you would want to shift some funds from U.S. equities and overweight emerging markets. Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at More: Americans are 'revenge saving' after years of splurging: 'Savings are a great way to have some certainty' Also read: What is a '996' work culture, and why are young professionals in China giving it the cold shoulder? 'You never know what might happen': How do I make sure my son-in-law doesn't get his hands on my daughter's inheritance? 'I am getting very frustrated': My mother's adviser has not returned my calls. He manages $1 million. Is this normal? My life partner is 18 years my senior. He wants to leave his $4.5 million fortune to me — not his two kids. Do we tell them? 'I'm afraid to ask her': My stepmother won't show me my father's will. What now? Jamie Dimon's bond-market warnings put investors on alert to diversify outside U.S. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
