Thailand's Shinawatra dynasty faces triple court test that could upend politics
Thailand's Shinawatra political dynasty has been at the heart of two decades of intermittent turmoil, and its latest battles will culminate in rulings that could unseat Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra for an alleged ethics violation and put her influential but polarising father Thaksin Shinawatra back in prison.
A court will on Friday rule if Thaksin during a 2015 media interview insulted the powerful monarchy, a serious crime in Thailand which carries lengthy jail terms of up to 15 years.
Another court will decide 18 days later if the tycoon's 2023 detention in a VIP hospital wing, instead of jail, means his prison sentence for abuse of power and conflicts of interest was not fully served.
Both Shinawatras have denied any wrongdoing.
Unfavourable verdicts for Paetongtarn, 39, and Thaksin, 76, a divisive backroom operator and driving force behind the government, could reduce the family's bargaining power and lead to an earlier-than-scheduled election, which their once formidable Pheu Thai party is not in the best shape to contest.
"A new election will definitely take place by mid-2026 or maybe sooner," said Thammasat University law professor Prinya Thaewanarumitkul.
"The chances of Pheu Thai regaining the popular vote in the next election are very unlikely."
A spokesperson for the Pheu Thai-led government declined to comment on the upcoming court rulings.
UNCERTAINTY LOOMS
The Shinawatra family are undoubtedly survivors, having prevailed through two military coups and three court rulings that collectively toppled three of their governments and five prime ministers.
It is unclear how the courts will rule, with numerous permutations for what comes next in Thai politics.
The coalition government of Paetongtarn, who is suspended pending the Constitutional Court's Aug 29 ruling, is sinking in opinion polls, under intense public pressure and hanging onto power by a thread.
The verdicts come at a critical moment for Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, which is struggling with weak growth, high household debt, slowing tourism and investor concern over policy continuity.
Paetongtarn is accused of violating ethics in a June telephone conversation with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen that was leaked as both countries were on the brink of an armed border conflict, which erupted a month later. A ceasefire is now in place.
Paetongtarn's predecessor Srettha Thavisin, was dismissed by the same court a year ago, and if she suffers the same fate or resigns, parliament must choose a new premier from a shrinking list of candidates submitted before the 2023 election.
Her Pheu Thai party has only one candidate left, the low-profile former justice minister Chaikasem Nitisiri. But the 76-year-old would need help from Thaksin or Pheu Thai to rally support from a shaky coalition that holds a razor-thin majority.
Other candidates include former interior minister Anutin Charnvirakul, whose party exited the governing coalition in June, and former premier and coup leader Prayuth Chan-o-cha, who quit politics and is now a royal adviser.
The anti-establishment opposition People's Party, the largest in parliament, has signalled it may back Anutin if he agrees to dissolve parliament this year and seek constitutional reform.
Unfavourable court verdicts would make it harder for seasoned dealmaker Thaksin to keep Pheu Thai in government, but some analysts say he still has backing from a powerful conservative establishment that wants to keep the progressive opposition at bay.
"The conservative camp has chosen Thaksin," said Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University.
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Straits Times
3 hours ago
- Straits Times
Thai court to deliver ruling in ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra's royal insult case
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox FILE PHOTO: Thailand's former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra looks on ahead of a panel discussion with Thai broadcaster Nation TV in Bangkok, Thailand, July 9, 2025. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa/File Photo BANGKOK - A criminal court in Thailand will on Friday deliver a verdict in a high-profile case of royal insult involving influential former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, the first in a series of upcoming rulings involving the powerful Shinawatra dynasty. Despite officially being retired, divisive billionaire Thaksin remains a major force in Thai politics and is accused of the serious offence of lese-majeste, which is punishable by up to 15 years in prison if found guilty, over a 2015 media interview he gave during his long stint in self-imposed exile. Thaksin denies wrongdoing and has repeatedly pledged allegiance to the king, who is enshrined in the Thai constitution as being in a position of "revered worship", with the palace seen by royalists as sacrosanct. The case stems from a complaint by the royalist military that ousted both Thaksin and sister Yingluck Shinawatra from power in coups in 2006 and 2014 respectively. Thaksin's is the highest-profile case among the more than 280 prosecutions in recent years under the controversial law, which activists say has been abused by conservatives to silence dissent and sideline political rivals. Royalists say the law is necessary to protect the crown. Both the prosecutor and Thaksin can appeal Friday's verdict. Asked about the case at a public event last month, Thaksin said: "I am not worried". The ruling on Thaksin comes a week ahead of another key verdict involving his daughter and prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has been in power for only a year. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore New ACS special education school to take in 100 pupils with autism in January 2026 Singapore Courier tip-off leads to HSA seizure of Kpods, drugs in Tampines and Grange Road raids Business Changi Travel Services cuts 30 staff amid market shifts Singapore Eavesdropping on monkeys in Singapore to watch out for emerging diseases World Trump gives two weeks to assess Russia-Ukraine peace prospects Opinion A Trumpian game of ping pong over Ukraine's future Opinion Why that hand-wringing over The Projector isn't pointless Business 7 in 10 employers satisfied with their migrant workers: MOM survey Paetongtarn, 39, faces the prospect of dismissal by the Constitutional Court for an alleged violation of ethics over a leaked telephone conversation with Cambodia's former leader Hun Sen, in what she said was an attempt to defuse a diplomatic crisis that later spiraled into five days of armed conflict. Although Thaksin has no official role in government, the 76-year-old tycoon remains politically active and is widely seen as the power behind the ruling Pheu Thai party, which is losing popularity and hanging on by a thread over the conflict with neighbouring Cambodia and a stuttering economy. Thaksin returned to Thailand in 2023 after 15 years abroad to serve an eight-year sentence for abuse of power and conflicts of interest, which was reduced to one year by King Maha Vajiralongkorn. He did not spend a single night in jail, however, and was transferred to the luxury wing of a police hospital on medical grounds, where he remained for six months before being released on parole. The Supreme Court will next month decide whether that hospital stint counts as time served and could potentially send Thaksin to prison. REUTERS
CNA
4 hours ago
- CNA
Stronger showing of Southeast Asian leaders expected at China's Sep 3 WWII parade. Why so?
BEIJING: Armoured columns. Aerial flyovers. Troop march-pasts. But as China gears up for a grand military parade on Sep 3 to mark 80 years since the end of World War II, analysts say the audience may speak louder than the display, especially with Southeast Asian leaders expected to turn up in force. Top leaders from Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are among several Southeast Asian states set to attend, according to reports, marking a first time three of Southeast Asia's largest economies will be simultaneously represented at the highest levels at a People's Liberation Army-led (PLA) parade on Tiananmen Square. Leaders from Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar are likewise expected to appear after first attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin just days earlier, the South China Morning Post reported. For China, the sight of regional leaders attending the parade signals solidarity and legitimacy. For Southeast Asian economies, it offers a chance to court Chinese trade and investment without paying too heavy a political price at home, analysts say. 'Participation signals goodwill toward China, with the intention to promote regional stability, but risks only minor repercussions from pro-democracy, human rights and nationalist opposition parties, or wary public opinion concerned about sovereignty and militarisation,' Jonathan Ping, an associate professor at Bond University, told CNA. Observers note that the turnout reflects more than wartime remembrance. For China, the anniversary is a dual showcase - flexing military might at home while projecting diplomatic reach across Asia and beyond. They add that Beijing is keen to prove its convening power, rallying regional and international partners even as ties with the West fray and the United States under President Donald Trump unsettles the global order. SOUTHEAST ASIA'S PARADE PRESENCE The upcoming Victory Day parade will be China's second full-scale procession since 2015 to mark Japan's formal surrender in September 1945. Domestically, World War II is officially known as the 'Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War'. Staged in the heart of Beijing, the event will bring together tens of thousands of participants and showcase China's latest military hardware. President Xi Jinping will survey the spectacle at Tiananmen Square as foreign leaders and dignitaries look on, their presence scrutinised as closely as the firepower on display. Authorities have said that invitations to foreign leaders would be extended, but have yet to disclose a formal guest list. At a routine press briefing on Wednesday (Aug 20), Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said 'information will be released in due time'. Still, media reports point to a stronger Southeast Asian turnout than in 2015. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim are likely to attend the parade, SCMP reported on Aug 15, citing multiple sources. Vietnam is also expected to send its president, Luong Cuong, according to the report. In comparison, Southeast Asian attendance at the 2015 parade was marked by the heads of state from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, while Thailand was represented by then-Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan. Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia sent special envoys, including former officials or cabinet representatives. Brunei did not feature on published lists of high-level attendees. Amid strained ties over territorial disputes, the Philippines did not send a formal representative - instead, former President Joseph Estrada, then serving as Manila's mayor, attended the parade in a personal capacity, citing the sister‑city ties between Manila and Beijing For Beijing, the sight of Southeast Asian leaders attending the parade is meant to underscore solidarity and show that China's neighbours are prepared to be seen alongside its military, said Bond University's Ping. 'Inviting ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) leaders underscores Beijing's ambition for diplomatic alignment and regional stability under its leadership, while the military display reinforces its expanding interests and offensive posture,' he said. Analysts see two main factors driving stronger Southeast Asian representation at the upcoming parade. For one, the political cost of attending is relatively low. In 2015, analysts noted a higher political cost for Southeast Asian leaders to be seen at a PLA-led showcase. It was China's first full-scale Victory Day parade, held amid active island building and land reclamation in the disputed South China Sea alongside the then-pending arbitration case brought by the Philippines. As Western leaders mostly stayed away, most ASEAN states opted for lower-level representation to avoid the perception of endorsing China's military posture while disputes simmered, analysts said. This year, the optics are still weighty - the Sino-US rivalry is sharper and the PLA faces heightened scrutiny - but analysts say the commemorative framing of the Sep 3 event makes it a less politically sensitive choice for Southeast Asian leaders. Unlike in 2015, when tensions in the South China Sea were relatively higher and the optics of marching alongside Chinese troops risked being read as tacit alignment with Beijing's military posture, today's climate carries relatively lower risk of such perceptions, noted analysts. 'Attendance at PLA-centred commemorations is a diplomatic benefit with lesser domestic sensitivities,' noted Ping, who's also the director of Bond University's East Asia Security Centre as well as editor of the Journal of East Asia Security. But the calculus is double-edged, said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington DC. Leaders want to nurture ties with China, yet they must also consider long-standing ties with Japan, he told CNA. Japan figures prominently in this equation because Beijing's Victory Day parade is framed around its defeat in World War II - placing regional leaders in the delicate position of honouring China's wartime narrative without straining present-day ties with Tokyo. 'Japan has been a long trusted partner, and is a key foreign investor and trading partner of every country in the region,' Abuza said, pointing out that Southeast Asia has broadly welcomed Tokyo's expanded security role and defence cooperation. In 2023, ASEAN-Japan trade amounted to US$241 billion, about 7 per cent of the bloc's merchandise trade, while Japanese investment of US$14.5 billion placed it among ASEAN's top foreign investors. On the security front, Tokyo has also deepened defence ties - most notably through a Reciprocal Access Agreement with the Philippines signed in mid-2024, and its Official Security Assistance programme, which supplies patrol boats and coastal radars to partners, the majority of them in Southeast Asia. Still, China's economic pull is hard to ignore, particularly as it cements its role as a vital trade and investment partner for Southeast Asian economies navigating uneven post-pandemic recoveries and the bite of US tariffs. 'At a time when exports to the United States will slow due to tariffs, and the International Monetary Fund has downgraded GDP growth in every country in the region, the leaders will be looking to China for more trade and investment,' Abuza said. Since overtaking the European Union in 2020, ASEAN has remained China's largest trading partner. In 2024, bilateral trade reached US$962.98 billion, accounting for 15.9 per cent of China's total foreign trade, according to official data. At the same time, China is the largest trading partner for most ASEAN countries, reflecting deep supply chain linkages and growing economic interdependence across the region. 'While leaders may come for the pomp and circumstance of the parade, it's the sidebar meetings and one-on-ones with Xi and his team that are the most important,' Abuza said. In other words, the parade is less about symbolism and more about access, say observers. 'The parade serves as a gateway,' said Ping from Bond University. 'Attendees obtain short-term diplomatic access, including bilateral meetings, promises of investment, and potential defence cooperation - but most importantly, networking for the future.' At the same time, sustained engagement beyond 'symbolic participation' is required to build outcomes, Ping said. INDIA'S WILDCARD AND EUROPE'S OUTLIERS While the guest list has yet to be disclosed, it is already clear that China's Sep 3 parade will draw leaders from well beyond its neighbourhood. Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed his attendance, while several European leaders, including those from Serbia and Slovakia, have also signalled plans to attend. For the 2015 parade, Chinese officials said representatives of 49 countries and 30 foreign leaders attended. This included Putin, then-South Korean President Park Geun-hye, various Central Asian leaders and then-United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon. But it is the possible presence of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that would draw the most scrutiny, given the pivotal yet strained state of China-India relations, analysts say. Ties between Beijing and New Delhi remain uneasy after a deadly border clash in 2020, though both sides have recently signalled interest in stabilising relations, agreeing to resume direct flights and expand trade and investment. Against this backdrop, the SCO summit in Tianjin - held between Aug 31 and Sep 1, just days before the parade - is set to draw particular attention. Modi has confirmed his attendance, marking his first trip to China in seven years. Yet whether he will stay on for the military parade is far from certain, analysts note. While Modi's SCO attendance is confirmed, the prospect of him attending the Victory Day parade is 'unlikely', Aparna Divya, a PhD candidate at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University, told CNA, noting that New Delhi has not issued any official schedule regarding parade participation. She added that appearing at the parade would carry much heavier weight, as being seen at a PLA-centred commemoration is far more sensitive than attending a regional summit. Modi was not present at China's 2015 Victory Day parade, with India instead represented by then-Minister of State for External Affairs VK Singh. Still, the speculation underscores the high stakes attached to Modi's possible presence at the upcoming parade. Divya said his parade attendance would signal 'a culmination of robust diplomatic engagements' between Beijing and New Delhi over the past year, while his absence would reflect the enduring caution that continues to shape India's calculus toward China. With Modi's visit to China raising expectations of a meeting with Xi, Divya said one aspect to watch closely is what practical gains, if any, emerge. Recent discussions between the two sides have touched on de-escalation along the contested border, easing trade restrictions on rare earths, cooperation on hydrological data linked to China's construction of a mega dam in Tibet and India's push for stronger consensus on cross-border terrorism. Any breakthroughs in these areas - through bilateral talks around Modi's visit - would help determine whether ties are merely stabilising or inching toward a substantive reset, Divya said. At the same time, China is also casting its gaze further west, with Serbia and Slovakia among the expected European attendees - a presence analysts say is not accidental. Both states are seeking economic opportunities through China's Belt and Road Initiative, said Bond University's Ping. He noted that Serbia has already reaped significant Chinese investment, while Slovakia's attendance 'is more significant, given it has been less engaging' towards China. The possible inclusion of Serbia and Slovakia is 'diplomatically very calculated', said Abuza from the National War College. 'Serbia is a country that has been traditionally close to Russia, and fought against the United States and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) … Slovakia is a NATO member, but whose government is currently more aligned with Moscow, vis a vis Kiev and its allies in Brussels,' he said. The mix of Southeast Asian partners, Russia's Putin and select European outliers gives the parade a carefully curated symbolism, analysts say. It projects Beijing's claim that it can still marshal international support across political systems and historical fault lines - a deliberate contrast, observers say, to the likely no-shows from Western capitals as tensions with them deepen. AMPLIFYING ITS CONVENING POWER The near back-to-back timing of the SCO summit and the Sep 3 military parade is no coincidence, but a calculated bid by Beijing to amplify its convening power, analysts suggest. They add that the dual events also create two layers of engagement - the SCO summit for substantive security and economic coordination, and the parade for symbolic alignment. Some states may attend just the SCO while giving the parade a miss, noted Ping from Bond University. 'Participation in formal frameworks like the SCO reflects strategic engagement on security and economic issues, while skipping ceremonial events avoids domestic backlash or perceptions of endorsing China's military posture,' he said. But the sequencing ensures that even leaders who would not normally travel solely for a parade may still be in China. 'It maximises diplomatic momentum, blending multilateral cooperation with great power military capacity,' Ping said. 'The dual staging reinforces China's leadership role; it has enormous diplomatic capacity well beyond almost all other states.' Analysts say the overlap of attendees across both events will be telling, offering a glimpse into how some governments are already within China's orbit, particularly through security and political cooperation, making them less constrained by the domestic sensitivities that deter other Southeast Asian leaders. So far, the leaders of Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are reportedly expected at both gatherings. 'These authoritarian regimes are already very much tied to China's security architecture,' said Abuza from the National War College. The three nations are all dialogue partners of the SCO, the grouping founded in 2001. Unlike the nine full members such as China, Russia, India and Pakistan, being a dialogue partner carries fewer obligations. China likes to use the SCO, which the US is not part of, as 'the centrepiece of an alternative world order led by Beijing', Abuza said. As for the Sep 3 parade, analysts say Beijing's objectives extend beyond the guest list to the messages it wants to project. One is to showcase its rising military might, using the PLA's display of modern hardware and formations to underscore both technological progress and strategic resolve. At a press conference on Aug 20, military officials highlighted that the display will include "never-before-seen" weaponry, covering hypersonic precision-strike missiles, anti-ship systems, drone-interception gear, and unmanned platforms. China's military showcases are often scrutinised as a barometer of its growing prowess, with observers already poring over recent rehearsals to decode signals of technological progress and strategic intent. At the same time, analysts say Beijing's other goal is to assert a carefully curated historical narrative. The parade is to commemorate the victory over Japan, and by foregrounding its wartime role, Beijing is tying its current posture to a story of resistance and victory, said Abuza from the National War College. This framing, analysts note, helps China legitimise its leadership claims today and draw contrasts with the US as the global order shifts. 'Through the parade … Beijing wants to convey that it is maintaining the international order at a time when the US is upending it, and that it has broad international support when America is isolating itself,' said Abuza. 'China wants to show that, in fact, Southeast Asian states are starting to choose.' Other analysts agree that Beijing is using memory politics to reinforce its present ambitions. Ping from Bond University said the parade not only accentuates regional wartime solidarity but also signals 'China's intent to deepen regional involvement, to counterbalance the US in trade, geopolitical authority, and governance model'. Divya from Fudan University said Beijing is also framing the commemoration as a signal that it 'upholds peace and will firmly defend international fairness and justice'.
CNA
10 hours ago
- CNA
Managers want more support, training ahead of Workplace Fairness Act taking effect: Survey
According to a survey, managers said they need more support and training, ahead of the Workplace Fairness Act that is set to take effect next year or by 2027. Introduced in January this year, the law aims to protect workers from discrimination. It will be unlawful for employers to base hiring or firing decisions on characteristics such as nationality, sex or age. A survey of 200 managers by NTUC LearningHub revealed that one in three managers have heard of the legislation but do not know the full details of it, while nearly one in five have never heard of it.
