What will it take for Syria to win permanent US sanctions relief?

Arab News

11 hours ago

LONDON: After 13 years of war and international isolation, a glimmer of hope emerged for Syria on May 23 when the US government announced a temporary easing of sanctions, ushering in an opportunity for recovery and reconstruction.
But Syrian officials warn the relief may be short-lived. Without the full and permanent lifting of restrictions, they say, the door to recovery could close just as quickly as it opened, especially with fresh conditions now attached.
Syria's interim government, led by President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, must navigate multiple US demands, from expelling foreign militants to integrating Kurdish forces and verifying the destruction of chemical weapons.
The road to full sanctions relief is further complicated by political realities in Washington, where a divided Congress remains largely opposed to reengaging with Damascus.
'There is considerable disappointment in Damascus that sanctions are only being suspended temporarily and not definitively,' Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Arab News.
'But many of the sanctions were imposed by Congress and will have to be lifted by Congress.'
Following President Donald Trump's announcement at the Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Riyadh, where he offered Syria 'a fresh start' by removing sanctions, the Treasury Department issued General License 25, temporarily suspending key restrictions.
The Treasury said relief was conditional on Syria denying safe haven to terrorist groups and protecting religious and ethnic minorities.
Parallel to this, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a 180-day Caesar Act waiver to enable humanitarian aid to enter Syria and help restore essential services like electricity, water, and sanitation.
• Western sanctions began in 1979 and expanded sharply after 2011 in response to Bashar Assad's crackdown on protests.
• Arms embargoes and dual-use controls remain, and new targeted sanctions have been imposed on human rights abusers.
• In May, the US and EU lifted most economic sanctions after Assad's ouster and the formation of a transitional government.
This relief marked the first phase of a broader US strategy aimed at pushing Syria's interim government to meet a series of sweeping demands.
A US official told AFP that while some Trump administration officials support immediate sanctions relief, others prefer a phased approach, making broader actions conditional on Syria meeting specific targets.
This shift reflects a broader recalibration of Western expectations. 'With the fall of the Assad regime, the US and its European allies have clearly stepped back from the demands they once directed at Damascus,' Syrian-Canadian analyst Camille Otrakji told Arab News.
'US Vice President JD Vance has repeatedly stated that his country will not promote democracy anymore. The new priority is stability, seen as a foundation for regional development and future peace agreements.'
As part of that shift, Washington's earlier insistence on compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254 — adopted in 2015 to guide Syria's democratic transition — has largely faded. In its place, Otrakji said, are more focused and immediate goals.
These include 'removing foreign fighters from the Syrian army, and possibly from Syria as a whole, reaching a settlement with the Kurds, and reducing violence against Alawite communities in the coastal region,' he added.
Yet even these goals appear increasingly flexible. On June 2, the US gave its approval to a Syrian government plan to integrate thousands of foreign fighters into the national army, as long as the process remains transparent, Reuters reported.
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Despite the evolving benchmarks, progress is underway. Landis explained that Al-Sharaa is already working to fulfill US demands, including the removal of Palestinian militants.
'Al-Sharaa has arrested or expelled the top Palestinian militia leaders and militants living in Syria,' Landis said.
Leaders of pro-Iran Palestinian factions allied with the Assad regime have left Syria under pressure from the new authorities, handing over their weapons as part of a broader US demand to curb Iran-backed groups, two Palestinian sources told AFP on May 23.
Syria is also under pressure to integrate the US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces into the national military and take responsibility for prisons and camps holding thousands of Daesh fighters and their families.
'Securing Daesh detention centers will require coordination with the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria and the SDF,' Landis said. 'The effort to find a compromise with US-backed Kurdish forces continues, despite some important differences.
'Two Aleppo neighborhoods were recently turned over by the YPG to Al-Sharaa's forces. More recently, a prison exchange was negotiated between the new Syrian military and the SDF.'
After Daesh's 2019 defeat, thousands of suspected affiliates were detained in northeast Syria. The largest camps, Al-Hol and Roj, are run by the Kurdish-led AANES and guarded by the SDF.
Security at the camps is fragile, with the SDF stretched by conflict with Turkish-backed forces and resource shortages. A 2023 Daesh attack on Al-Hasakah prison highlighted the risk of mass escapes.
Aid cuts and a potential US withdrawal from northeast Syria threaten further destabilization, raising fears that thousands of Daesh-affiliated detainees could escape, posing a threat to global security.
Recent developments suggest progress. In March, the Al-Sharaa government reached key agreements with the Kurdish-led administration to integrate the SDF into the national army, place Kurdish-run institutions under central control, and jointly manage Daesh detainees.
The first formal steps followed in May, when Kurdish authorities and Syria's transitional government agreed on a plan to evacuate Syrians from Al-Hol camp to government-held areas. Previously, repatriations had only been allowed to Kurdish-controlled zones.
In Aleppo, the YPG, which is a component of the SDF, handed over the Sheikh Maqsoud and Achrafieh neighborhoods to the Syrian government. These predominantly Kurdish districts had been under YPG/SDF control since 2015 and remained semi-autonomous even after the Assad government recaptured most of Aleppo in 2016.
Landis said similar negotiations are underway with Druze militias in southern Syria. 'Arriving at an agreed-upon solution will take time, and both sides are still debating how integral regional militias will be allowed to remain and how much local authority their commanders will have,' he said.
In the past few months, Syria's Druze community has faced renewed violence and sectarian tensions, particularly in areas near Damascus like Jaramana and Sahnaya.
In late April, a fake audio recording triggered sectarian violence in the Damascus suburbs of Jaramana and Sahnaya. Clashes between Druze militias, Sunni groups, and government forces left dozens of civilians dead. Human rights monitors reported extrajudicial killings by government-affiliated units.
Although local ceasefires and Druze police deployments have eased tensions in some areas, mistrust runs deep. The Druze community continues to demand greater autonomy and security guarantees, resisting government disarmament efforts amid fears of future attacks.
Concerns have been amplified by sectarian killings targeting the Alawite community, particularly along Syria's coast. Between March and April, armed groups — including some tied to the transitional government — reportedly executed Alawite civilians and torched their homes.
On May 28, the EU sanctioned two individuals and three groups accused of carrying out the attacks. While the EU has announced plans to lift sanctions, foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the move was 'conditional' and that sanctions could be resumed if Syria's new government does not keep the peace.
That fragile peace, analysts say, depends largely on how the transitional leadership navigates Syria's complex social fabric.
'For the new transitional leadership, managing relationships with Syria's minorities and broader society, each with its own aspirations, will be essential to stabilizing the country and permanently lifting the threat of renewed US sanctions,' said Otrakji.
One of the most delicate challenges, he said, lies in the relationship between Al-Sharaa's administration and the Alawite community, which held significant power under the Assad regime.
'Establishing a local police or security force may be the only realistic solution to address mutual distrust and security concerns,' Otrakji said.
'A handful of influential Alawite figures are now competing to convince their community, and other relevant actors, that they should play the leading role in protecting and representing Alawite interests.'
As Al-Sharaa struggles to assert control, fears of renewed civil war persist. US Secretary of State Rubio warned in late May that Syria could be only weeks away from 'potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions.'
Progressing to the next phase of US relief will require Syria to normalize relations with Israel by joining the Abraham Accords.
The Abraham Accords are a series of diplomatic agreements brokered by the US in 2020, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.
The accords marked a significant shift in Middle East diplomacy, promoting cooperation despite the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Their potential has been undermined, however, by public outcry over the war in Gaza.
Al-Sharaa has publicly signaled openness to diplomacy. 'Al-Sharaa has reiterated his interest in arriving at a peaceful settlement with Israel,' said Landis. 'He has made a trust-building gesture by handing over the papers of the celebrated Israeli spy Eli Cohen.'
The Syrian leadership reportedly approved last month's return of 2,500 documents related to Cohen and his personal belongings. The Israeli spy was executed in Damascus in 1965. The archive, held by Syrian intelligence for six decades, included his letters, will, passports, and surveillance photos.
'Word is that Al-Sharaa has also been trying to reach out to Israel through the US to establish talks,' Landis said.
Despite Syrian statements seeking peace, Israel remains cautious. Since Assad's fall, it has conducted hundreds of airstrikes across Syria and seized control of a UN-monitored buffer zone inside Syrian territory.
Taking advantage of the power vacuum left by Assad's ouster, Israeli troops advanced up to 15 km into Syrian territory, establishing a 'zone of control' and a deeper 'sphere of influence' reaching as far as 60 km east, particularly in the southern provinces of Quneitra and Daraa.
In recent months, the Israeli military has established at least nine new outposts and bases, including on Mount Hermon and within the former UN Disengagement Observer Force buffer zone. Israeli troops have also occupied several Syrian villages, including Al-Kiswa, Al-Bakar, Sidon Al-Golan, Sidon Al-Hanout and Al-Adnaniyah.
Still, some see potential for reconciliation. 'The majority of Syrians want to have peace at home, and they want to have peace in the neighborhood,' Ibrahim Al-Assil, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told CNN.
'The issue with Israel is indeed complicated, but it's not impossible to resolve the issue of the Golan Heights, the issue of the borders, the concerns of both sides are deep and real and serious,' he said.
'That means there is a potential for these talks, and there is a potential for having better relationships on both sides, the Israeli side and the Syrian side, and that require both sides to start a long journey of negotiations between both of them, and to believe that a better relationship is possible between both of them.'
Ghassan Ibrahim, founder of the Global Arab Network, believes the real test for Al-Sharaa's government will be reconstruction.
'The key now is how the government handles the opportunities it's being given — politically, regionally, internationally, and with sanctions relief,' he told Arab News.
'Will reconstruction be piecemeal, with companies simply seizing contracts, or will it be comprehensive?'
The London-based Syria analyst added: 'Ideally, reconstruction should create opportunities for businesses, rebuild infrastructure, improve quality of life, and promote stability — ultimately encouraging refugees to return.
'These are the things that will be judged moving forward.'