Fed has a short window of time to remain hawkish, says Jefferies' David Zervos
David Zervos, Jefferies, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk what he expects from the Federal Reserve and markets in the near-term.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Wall Street Journal
20 minutes ago
- Wall Street Journal
Mortgage Rates Today, June 20, 2025: 30-Year Rates Drop to 6.82%
Mortgage rates are down and still under 7%. Today's national average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.82%, according to Bankrate. If you choose a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, the average rate is 6.00%. Interest rates for new mortgages and refinances continue to hover near 7%, contributing to a stifling summer for the economy. The labor market appears to have stalled, with many companies opting not to fill open positions. At the same time, rising costs have put pressure on consumer spending, contributing to a weak real estate market during the spring and summer. These risks have many business owners hunkering down for an uneasy few months ahead. The economic uncertainty has some analysts making the case that it's time for the Fed to cut interest rates, but Fed officials kept rates unchanged at their June meeting. The policymakers held the federal-funds rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, but indicated that rate cuts might be possible later in the year. Future cuts will depend on whether the jobs market weakens significantly or it becomes more evident that prices won't spike due to tariffs. 'There are many, many different scenarios…where inflation does or doesn't prove out to be at the levels we think, where the labor market does or doesn't soften,' Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters. Top mortgage rates today Current mortgage rates are down and lower than they were seven days ago but lower than in early 2025, when the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached above 7%. Even though Federal Reserve policy doesn't directly impact today's mortgage rates, they have been easing since the Fed began cutting rates in late 2024. Mortgage rates change regularly, so compare offers and consider the personal and market factors that influence your quoted mortgage rate. Term Today's average mortgage rate Last week's average mortgage rate Average mortgage rate change 30-year fixed 6.82% 6.87% -0.05% 15-year fixed 6.00% 6.04% -0.04% 5/1 ARM 6.15% 6.26% -0.11 30-year fixed jumbo 6.89% 6.92% -0.03 Source: Data reflects interest rates, not APRs. Term Today's average mortgage rate Last week's average mortgage rate Average mortgage rate change 30-year fixed 6.79% 6.83% -0.04% 15-year fixed 6.11% 6.14% -0.03% 30-year fixed jumbo 6.77% 6.69% -0.08% Source: Data reflects interest rates, not APRs. During the last three years, mortgage rates have been on the rise. In early 2022, the average 30-year fixed rate was 4.72% and the 15-year fixed rate was 3.91%. Rates reached a recent peak in late 2023 at 7.79% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 7.03% for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Since then, rates have fallen as far as 6.08% (30-year fixed) and 5.15% (15-year fixed), but then began moving higher again. While these rates represent relatively recent heights for mortgage rates, average 30-year rates peaked above 16% in the early 1980s. The lowest-ever 30-year fixed rate, slightly below 3%, appeared in 2021. Today's mortgage rates are influenced by economic and market conditions, as well as personal factors. The rate you're quoted by a lender might be higher or lower than the national average. Here are some of the items considered when calculating your mortgage rate: 10-year Treasury yield: Current mortgage rates, especially on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, are related to movements in the 10-year Treasury yield. Current mortgage rates, especially on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, are related to movements in the 10-year Treasury yield. Mortgage-backed securities: The rate investors earn on mortgage-backed securities also plays a role. Spreads between mortgage-backed securities and Treasury yields, as well as between what lenders offer borrowers and mortgage-backed security rates, impact current mortgage rates. The rate investors earn on mortgage-backed securities also plays a role. Spreads between mortgage-backed securities and Treasury yields, as well as between what lenders offer borrowers and mortgage-backed security rates, impact current mortgage rates. Investor sentiment: Perceptions about fiscal policy and economic conditions can affect how Treasuries move, as well as how much risk lenders feel comfortable taking on. Perceptions about fiscal policy and economic conditions can affect how Treasuries move, as well as how much risk lenders feel comfortable taking on. Personal credit history: The information in your credit report and your credit score influence your mortgage rate quote. The information in your credit report and your credit score influence your mortgage rate quote. Income: Lenders look at your income relative to your potential mortgage payment and other debts you have. If it appears you can handle your mortgage payments with relative ease, they feel more comfortable lending you money. Lenders look at your income relative to your potential mortgage payment and other debts you have. If it appears you can handle your mortgage payments with relative ease, they feel more comfortable lending you money. Down payment: Your mortgage rate might be lower if you make a larger down payment; often, the best results are when you put at least 20% down. Your mortgage rate might be lower if you make a larger down payment; often, the best results are when you put at least 20% down. Points paid: Mortgage points, also known as discount points, are fees paid upfront as a way to directly reduce your rate and lower your monthly payments. Each point, which represents 1% of your loan amount, can potentially reduce your rate by up to 0.25 percentage points. Mortgage points, also known as discount points, are fees paid upfront as a way to directly reduce your rate and lower your monthly payments. Each point, which represents 1% of your loan amount, can potentially reduce your rate by up to 0.25 percentage points. Loan term: A 15-year mortgage rate is usually lower than a 30-year rate. By choosing a shorter term, you might be able to get a lower interest rate, but your monthly payment might be higher. How to choose the right mortgage for your financial goals When considering a mortgage, review your financial situation and goals. Often, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are chosen because they spread a large payment over a longer period of time, making monthly payments more affordable. Even though the loan costs more overall, it might be more affordable on a day-to-day basis. If your main concern is becoming debt-free sooner while paying less interest and you can afford a higher monthly payment, a shorter-term loan might make sense. Let's say you get a $350,000 loan. Here's what you might pay with different mortgage terms: 30-year loan (6.97%): Monthly payment of $2,321.51 and total interest amount of $485,744.05 Monthly payment of $2,321.51 and total interest amount of $485,744.05 20-year loan (6.74%): Monthly payment of $2,659.19 and total interest amount of $288,206.46 Monthly payment of $2,659.19 and total interest amount of $288,206.46 15-year loan (6.20%): Monthly payment of $2,991.45 and total interest amount of $188,461.10 Monthly payment of $2,991.45 and total interest amount of $188,461.10 10-year loan (6.16%): Monthly payment of $3,913.90 and total interest amount of $119,667.88 These scenarios don't include other costs, like insurance and property taxes, that you might also be subject to. It's important to consider those costs as well. For example, you might think you can afford the payments on a 20-year or 15-year mortgage, but once you add in other homeownership costs, your budget might feel tight. Don't forget other homeownership costs that might impact your monthly budget, including maintenance, repairs, utilities and other expenses that might be higher once you move into a house. When choosing a mortgage, the principal and interest payments aren't the only considerations. One strategy might be to choose a longer loan, but make extra payments to pay down the debt faster and reduce the amount of interest you pay. With this approach, you can choose to pay extra each month, but if you need to cut back due to emergency, you can revert to the required lower monthly payment with a lower risk of not being able to meet the obligation. If you lock into a shorter loan term with a higher payment, you can't scale back payments later without risking the loss of the home.
CNBC
21 minutes ago
- CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller
CNBC's Steve Liesman and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, state of the economy, rate path outlook, strength of the labor market, impact of tariffs, and more.
Yahoo
25 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Cuts to Fed Staff Pay, CFPB Funds Blocked from Trump Tax Bill
(Bloomberg) -- The Senate rules-keeper has decided that Republicans can't use President Donald Trump's multi-trillion dollar tax bill to strip all funding from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and to cut salaries for many Federal Reserve employees. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown The parliamentarian ruled that the GOP-backed policy provisions are outside the scope of the fast-track budget process Republicans are using to push Trump's legislative agenda through without any Democratic backing, Senate Democrats said. Republicans didn't respond to a request for comment. The budget process, which is immune to a filibuster, can be used for legislation primarily aimed at revenue and spending, not for making other changes to public policy. Senate Republicans are planning to begin voting on their version of the $3 trillion tax and spending cut bill next week. The GOP bill would have eliminated CFPB's funding and it would have saved $1.4 billion by cutting non-monetary policy employee pay at the Fed to match levels at the Treasury Department. The rules-keeper also rejected provisions eliminating the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board and the Environmental Protection Agency air-pollution emissions standards for vehicles. The ruling on the CFPB is the latest blow to the Trump administration's attempt to gut the agency, which has been the subject of court fights. Democrats plan to challenge dozens of other provisions as violating Senate rules. These include sections curtailing regulations on short-barrel shotguns and silencers as well as applying financial pressure to states to stop them from regulating artificial intelligence. 'We will continue examining every provision in this Great Betrayal of a bill and will scrutinize it to the furthest extent,' the Senate Budget Committee's top Democrat, Jeff Merkley of Oregon, said in a statement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters this month that he would oppose efforts to overrule the Senate parliamentarian. When the GOP is in the minority, Thune has argued, the 60-vote threshold for such bills is a vital tool. More decisions from the Senate rules-keeper are expected in the coming days. Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
