Sabah polls: Is it shaping up to be a contest between national, local parties?
KOTA KINABALU: Will it be a battle between national coalitions versus state-based parties for the 17th Sabah state election due by November this year?
Battle lines are being drawn with Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional catching its local unity government partner Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) off guard when the national coalitions announced an electoral pact without local partners.
The eight-party GRS ruling coalition led by Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor quickly reacted saying that it was prepared to go "solo" if the national coalitions decided to go ahead without local parties being the dominant lead force.
The national coalitions' unilateral announcement clearly reflected a stalemate in electoral pact discussions involving Pakatan-Barisan and GRS, which has been seeking a possible electoral pact with Pakatan without its estranged partner Sabah Barisan.
According to political circles, GRS, led by anchor partner Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (Gagasan Rakyat) under Hajiji, has been pussyfooting on the proposal for a GRS-Pakatan-Barisan electoral pact that will share 73 state seats equally.
The political sources said that Hajiji, who had to also contend with other GRS partners wanting to go solo, was pushing for a electoral tie-up with Sabah Pakatan without Sabah Barisan-Umno led by Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin.
Political analyst Dr Romzi Ationg noted that the decision for Barisan and Pakatan to reach a pact for the Sabah election was to ensure the federal unity government remains strong and stable.
"The Pakatan-Barisan pact is aimed at making sure the federal government remains strong.
"There is also a strong belief that the collaboration will enable the two national coalitions to gain a number of seats in the coming state election," observed Dr Romzi, an associate professor with Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS).
Romzi dismisses the idea that the national coalitions might lose without influential local partners as both Pakatan-Barisan still have strong political support in a number of areas throughout Sabah.
However, Romzi believes that there was still a window open for Pakatan-Barisan and GRS to come to a pact ahead of the state election.
Political analyst Tony Paridi Bagang said GRS's move to contest the election "independently" was in line with its core pledge that Sabah should be governed by a locally-based party or coalition.
"This move of going solo underscores GRS's narrative of asserting greater autonomy in state leadership," said Bagang, a lecturer with Sabah UiTM.
Bagang, however, said that it will serve as a critical litmus test for GRS's political strength, while also challenging the entrenched dominance of national-based coalitions in shaping Sabah's political landscape.
"The latest political developments are set to gauge the 'resilience and adaptability' of the two national coalitions.
"It will reveal how deeply rooted the public sentiment for local autonomy truly is and whether it undermines their appeal," added Bagang when viewing Sabah's politics possibly being reshaped with national parties and local parties at loggerheads.
Bagang said that the final results, however, will also depend on key factors such as campaign resources, party machinery and the dynamics of federal-state relations.
Sabah Barisan, comprised of four parties, has only Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS) led by Datuk Arthur Kurup as a local entity and does not hold any seat in the state assembly.
The four-party Sabah Pakatan also has only one local party - Upko, led by Datuk Ewon Benedict, who is also Sabah Pakatan chairman. Upko has one state seat currently.
GRS with 42 assemblymen in the 79-member assembly, is currently in a coalition with Sabah Pakatan whose seven assemblymen backed Hajiji after Sabah Barisan led by Bung pulled out its support in January 2023.
Sabah Barisan with 13 assemblymen (including two suspended for supporting GRS) remains in the Opposition bench.
Two other federal unity government parties - Parti Warisan led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal with 14 assemblymen and Parti KDM with two assemblymen - have also remained in Opposition to the GRS-led state government.
Sabah PAS, which is in Opposition to the national unity government, is supporting GRS.
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