Separatism strong among majority of Tory backers in Manitoba

Winnipeg Free Press

30-06-2025

Prairie separatism, once seen as exclusive to Alberta and Saskatchewan, is growing in Manitoba, according to a new poll.
The majority of federal and provincial Conservative supporters in Manitoba would likely vote to leave Canada, says the Probe Research poll commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press.
The June 2025 omnibus survey — based on a random and representative sample of 1,000 Manitoba adults —found that 52 per cent of provincial Progressive Conservatives and 56 per cent of federal Conservative voters say they'd definitely or probably vote to leave in a referendum on independence in Manitoba.
Overall, about one in four Manitobans shares this feeling, though support for separatism is almost negligible among NDP and Liberal voters and strongest regionally among rural voters.
'There's a pretty profound streak of alienation and discontent that runs through this,' said Curtis Brown, the principal at Probe Research.
'But, I mean, we've certainly been living through really strange and uncertain times in the last six months and people's attitudes have shifted a lot.'
The Probe survey suggests feelings of patriotism — while ebbing a little since March after U.S. President Trump imposed a fresh round of tariffs on Canada — still run high among most Manitobans.
Sixty per cent of respondents said they feel more proud to be a Canadian today than they did at this time last year. In March, that degree of patriotism in the province was running at 77 per cent. Nearly 60 per cent also said they plan to make more of an effort to celebrate Canada Day.
However, fewer conservatives are riding the patriotic swell: 29 per cent of federal Conservative voters in Manitoba say they feel prouder to be a Canadian today than they did at this time last year, while 86 per cent of federal Liberal voters and 78 per cent of federal NDP voters in the province express this sentiment.
The poll also found that 51 per cent of federal Conservative voters in Manitoba say they're more likely to mark Canada Day in a bigger way, compared to 67 per of federal Liberal voters and 57 per cent of federal NDP voters.
'The existential moment seems to have passed in people's minds, the hard-core 'elbows up' sentiments, (there's) not the fervour of it,' Brown said. 'As people celebrate Canada Day, and they think about what Canada is all about and where they want to see it go — something's changed.'
Kelly Saunders, a political studies professor at Brandon University, said she isn't surprised by the Probe survey.
'Western Canada has long felt that they were never fully equal partners in Confederation,' she said.
'Liberals have dominated federal politics in this country, and the Liberal base has always been in central Canada and the Maritimes. The distribution of seats in the House of Commons has always favoured the two biggest provinces, Ontario and Quebec,' she said.
A December Free Press/Probe poll found Conservative Party of Canada's Pierre Poilievre polling above 50 per cent with Manitobans and a full 68 per cent of men in the province aged 18 to 35 supported the leader.
Although the Tory loss to the Liberals in the April 28 federal election may fuel growing separatist sentiments among Manitoba conservatives, Saunders argued that cultural and economic forces, beyond the vagaries of electoral politics, are driving the shift.
'Western alienation is in our DNA as a country,' she said. 'Sometimes we see pressure points where all of a sudden these forces rise up again, but it's always been there.'
A May 2025 poll found significant support for separatism in the two other Prairie provinces.
According to the Angus Reid Institute, 36 per cent of Albertans support their province leaving Confederation – though that number shrinks to 19 per cent when it comes to the number who say they would 'definitely' vote to leave if a referendum were held.
Meanwhile, 34 per cent of Saskatchewan voters support provincial separation with that number dropping to 15 per cent when it comes to 'definitely' voting to leave in a referendum.
While neither Alberta Premier Danielle Smith nor Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe endorses separatism, both are strong advocates for greater provincial independence. Smith passed the Alberta Sovereignty Act in 2022 while Moe passed the Saskatchewan First Act in 2023, which technically empower their provinces to reject enforcement of many federal initiatives.
While both Manitoba NDP Premier Wab Kinew, and former Tory premier Brian Pallister, have criticized western separatism, the province has recently shown some signs of greater western alignment.
In May, Kinew joined Smith and Moe at the western premiers conference in Yellowknife, where they called for new economic corridors, encompassing highways, rail, pipelines, energy transmission and critical-mineral infrastructure.
They also called for connecting West Coast ports to Hudson Bay to link Western Canada more directly to overseas markets.
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Conrad SweatmanReporter
Conrad Sweatman is an arts reporter and feature writer. Before joining the Free Press full-time in 2024, he worked in the U.K. and Canadian cultural sectors, freelanced for outlets including The Walrus, VICE and Prairie Fire. Read more about Conrad.
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