March Madness men's final predictions: the winner and a missing giant

The Guardian

07-04-2025

The Gators need to push the pace and turn it into a high-possession game, disrupting the Cougars' grind-it-out style. They also must knock down perimeter shots early to stretch Houston's stingy defense, which is the best in the country by any metric. Limiting turnovers against the Cougars' ball pressure and winning the rebounding battle to create second-chance points will be critical, same for composure in late-game possessions against Houston's relentless physicality. Bryan Armen Graham
Get scoring and playmaking from their perimeter players and hold the Cougars to one shot on each possession. Houston had 18 offensive rebounds in Saturday's win over Duke leading to 19 points. If Florida can force Houston into tough twos and win the rebound margin they will cut down the nets on Monday night. Nicholas Levine
Of the 364 teams in Division I, only four played at a slower pace than the Cougars. Houston must control the tempo, suffocate Florida's guards with pressure and win the battle on the glass. Limiting second-chance opportunities and forcing turnovers will allow them to grind the Gators into the kind of half-court battle where they thrive. That's how they managed to limit Duke to one (!) field goal in the final 10 minutes of Saturday night's semi-final to spring one of the more famous smash-and-grabs in Final Four history. BAG
They need to play to their identity: defense and toughness. The Cougars are the best defensive team in the nation, holding their opponents to 87.3 points per 100 possessions. They will have the players and a scheme to make life tough on the dynamic Florida backcourt. I expect to see a lot of ball-screen traps on Gators star Walter Clayton Jr, forcing someone else to hit shots. NL
Walter Clayton Jr. The 6ft 3in combo guard has become the Gators' offensive and emotional heartbeat, drawing straight-faced comparisons to Steph Curry after consecutive 30-point outbursts against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight and Auburn on Saturday. His shot creation, poise under pressure and fearlessness in the clutch will all be tested against a lengthy Houston backcourt that will be zeroed in on stopping him. BAG
Walter Clayton Jr has been an elite shot-maker, particularly in the last two games. The last player to record back-to-back 30-point games in both the Elite Elite and Final Four was Larry Bird for Indiana State in 1979. The Gators need the former high school football star – he turned down offers from Georgia and Notre Dame to play basketball at tiny Iona University in upstate New York before transferring – to continue his hot streak. NL
J'Wan Roberts. The 6ft 8in forward anchors Houston's elite defense with toughness, versatility and experience. A former redshirt turned vital starter, he brings physicality in the paint, switches effectively on the perimeter and crashes the boards relentlessly. Against Florida, his ability to defend without fouling and chip in offensively will be vital to Houston's title hopes. BAG
LJ Cryer played all 40 minutes in Saturday's win over Duke. The Baylor transfer kept the Cougars within striking distance all night with timely threes, finishing with six of them. Points in the paint against Florida are going to be tough to come by, so the Cougars will need a similar performance from Cryer on the perimeter in order to open the offense up for his teammates. NL
Alex Condon will be the X-factor. The 6ft 11in freshman from Perth is regularly overshadowed by the Gators' bigger names, but his size, mobility and sneaky-good instincts could see him be a difference-maker against Houston's physical frontcourt. Look for him to provide tough rebounding, smart defensive switches and a few timely putbacks or hustle plays that will quietly swing momentum Florida's way. BAG
Whoever wins the battle on the boards will win the game. These two teams are among the top eight in the country for offensive rebounding, each recovering around 36% of their misses. With open looks likely to be scarce, second-chance points will be crucial to the outcome. NL
Houston. Kelvin Sampson's program is built for sustained March success behind an established identity of defense and toughness. Even with their looming departures, the Cougars reload better than most and have reached the second weekend in six of the last six tournaments. The collective buy-in to Sampson's culture has been consistent, their style is built to frustrate and it's wrought a proven formula from year to year. The Coogs should be penciled into next year's Final Four conversation before the nets even come down. BAG
In the transfer portal era, where rosters change drastically from year to year, predicting future outcomes can be tough. Florida coach Todd Golden is highly analytical and data-driven, and will focus on building a roster that will win the possession battle (turnover and rebounding margin) and be efficient on both ends. Sampson, on the other hand, has built his culture around toughness and defense, a formula that has led to sustained success. Final answer: Houston. NL
Olivier Rioux, Florida. The 7ft 9in freshman is taking a redshirt year to improve his conditioning and stamina, so he's not on the official roster. But the Guinness-certified world's tallest teenager is here with the Gators in San Antonio to soak up the Final Four experience and has drawn more attention than some of his uniformed teammates at open practices. Rioux's profile only grew after Florida's win over Texas Tech in last weekend's West regional final, when he didn't require a ladder to cut down a piece of the net. BAG
No ladder necessary for 7'9' Olivier Rioux 🚫🪜 He had no problems cutting the net for the @GatorsMBK 😭(via @SECNetwork) pic.twitter.com/kaq5MGhRH9
Cooper Flagg, Duke. That heartbreaking loss on Saturday will rob us of seeing Flagg, the surefire No 1 pick in June's NBA draft, in one last college basketball game. The 18-year-old is so fun to watch not only because of the spectacular plays he makes, but also all of the little ways that he impacts winning. And he comes across as a kid who loved being part of a connected team like the Blue Devils were. NL
The portal has reshaped college basketball into a year-to-year proposition. Consider that right now a traditional blue-blood like Indiana doesn't have a single player on their roster! Teams like Florida have ridden key transfers deep into March, showing how impactful experienced newcomers can be. The line between rebuilding and contending has never been more razor-thin. Coaches have been forced adapt fast and rosters are no longer built in four years, but in four months. BAG
Two years ago, when the Final Four featured a No 9 seed, two No 5 seeds and a No 4 seed, the thinking was the transfer portal was creating more parity than ever. Now after four No 1 seeds made it to the final weekend for only the second time ever, the narrative has shifted: the 'big boys', who scoop up proven players looking to move up or get paid more, are supposedly the only ones who can be successful. But Duke showed that you can still win with young players, while Auburn's roster of (very) old and experienced guys helped them to the best season in school history. Meanwhile Kansas, the preseason No 1, didn't make it past the first round, prompting Bill Self to reassess his recruiting approach in the portal. Bottom line: the team that finds the right players who complement each other and fit the coach's vision will ultimately prevail. NL
Florida 78-74 Houston. In a delicious clash of styles, the Gators' shot-making wins out. Clayton comes through with another lore-building offensive performance and Florida survive Houston's late defensive surge with clutch free throws and a huge blocked shot in the final minute. It's the Southeastern Conference tournament champions' perimeter skill and tempo that ultimately outlasts Houston's grit and grind in an Alamadome thriller. BAG
Florida 71-63 Houston. The Gators, who were picked sixth in the SEC's preseason poll and 21st in the country, have exceeded expectations all season. Florida will force Houston into difficult two-point field goals, an area where the Cougars already struggle with a low shooting percentage. With both teams protecting the ball well and limiting turnovers, the field goal and rebounding percentages will favor the Gators. The hot hand Clayton will draw two defenders, allowing Florida to thrive with advantage basketball. In the end the Gators will cut down the nets for the first time since their back-to-back titles under Billy Donovan in 2006 and 2007. NL