CN Rail chops forecast as trade war hits commodities
OTTAWA: Canadian National Railway Co (CN Rail) lowered its earnings guidance for 2025 and removed its outlook entirely for next year as the trade war rattles key sectors the company operates in.
The Montreal-based company, which operates a network in Canada and the United States, now expects earnings per share to rise in the 'mid to high single-digit range' this year, a sharp cut from earlier guidance that called for 10% to 15% growth.
The company said there's too much 'uncertainty and volatility' in trade policy to stick with a longer-term forecast.
'A few months ago, the trade deals seemed imminent,' chief executive officer Tracy Robinson said during a call with analysts. And instead, there is an increasing uncertainty around the tariff and trade environment – particularly in Canada – and some concerns over the weakening macroeconomic environment.'
The shares dipped in after-hours trading in New York.
The company will work with customers in sectors affected by tariffs to help them get access to other markets, she said.
Canadian National earned C$1.87 per share on an adjusted basis in the three months ending June 30, about one Canadian cent below what was expected by analysts in a Bloomberg survey.
Revenue slipped by 1% to C$4.3 bil (US$3.1 bil) as tariffs and economic upheaval weighed on revenues for shipping cars, metals and lumber.
Grain and fertiliser shipments were a bright spot, rising 13% over last year.
Automotive revenue, an industry that's central to US President Donald Trump's trade strategy, fell 5% from a year earlier to C$241 mil in the quarter.
Both finished vehicles and auto parts were below last year's levels, with auto manufacturers shifting products from the United States to Mexico, according to the company.
Chief financial officer Ghislain Houle said a stronger Canadian dollar was a factor in the decision to lower earnings expectations.
'Every penny of appreciation of the Canadian dollar to the US dollar represents a headwind' of 5 Canadian cents of earnings per share annually, he said.
Canadian National acted early in the quarter to furlough some employees to save costs, said Patrick Whitehead, the chief network operating officer.
The company had hundreds of trainee and engine employees on furlough by the end of the quarter. — Bloomberg
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