Aberdeen Tactics Watch: How Dons beat Celtic in Scottish Cup final - after lessons of 5 previous meetings this season

Press and Journal

22-05-2025

Given the pre-match build-up and recent fixtures between Aberdeen and Celtic, one might wonder if the Hoops' name has already been engraved on the Scottish Cup for this season.
Saturday's final appears to be an impossible job for the Dons – but what lessons can be taken from the fixtures so far this season and applied by Jimmy Thelin's Reds to end Brendan Rodgers' unbeaten record at Hampden?
Firstly, it would be remiss not to consider the possibility Thelin goes with an alternative approach and devises a specific game-plan for this match.
St Mirren and Hibernian have given Celtic trouble with their 5-3-2 setup, and the extra insurance at the back might allow the team to be more aggressive further up the field.
Of course, all tactical formations and systems have advantages and disadvantages – certainly ones which have not been put into practice in prior matches.
I'm working on the assumption Thelin will not change too much in his approach, given the consistency of his setup so far this season, and he will look for a perfect execution of plan A to keep Aberdeen competitive.
One stat we know Celtic will come out on top of in the Scottish Cup final against Aberdeen is possession.
The Reds will need to stay compact between the units, but since the defensive line is unlikely to be too high – given the opposition's pace – we'll probably see another mid-block, with more aggressive presses on certain triggers.
For the most part, in the previous meetings this term, when Celtic have built out from the back, Aberdeen have retained their 4-4-2 shape with one of the forwards pressing the centre-back in possession and the other stopping the pass to Callum McGregor.
Even in last week's match (5-1 loss at Pittodrie), Pape Gueye and Kevin Nisbet denied the Celtic captain passes quite well.
The danger, however, is when Celtic skip a line and hit the two higher midfielders, like in this example in the League Cup semi-final (6-0 Dons defeat):
From the image above, we can see McGregor will be open for a bounce pass from Arne Engels, while (though not even in shot) there is also the potential for a centre-forward to drop into the space between the two centre-midfielders, who may push up to mark the midfielders tightly.
In light of this, one of Thelin's biggest selection decisions will be whether he goes with Gueye or Jamie McGrath as the no.10.
McGrath played there in the Aberdeen v Celtic League Cup semi.
But, at Pittodrie in December (1-0 loss to Reo Hatate's 78th-minute goal), in the howling wind, he dropped a little deeper and followed McGregor more closely.
In this situation (above), Dons wideman Topi Keskinen would then mark the Celtic centre-back if the ball was switched.
Perhaps the weather played a part, but Aberdeen were able to stay in that game for the whole 90 minutes, and it took a moment of magic to separate the two teams.
My unqualified hunch is Hibs-bound McGrath may get the nod on Saturday.
One pass of major concern in the hammering last Wednesday was the out-ball to James Forrest on Celtic's right wing – which was often on due to the Dons' narrow shape.
Wingers will be another question mark, and if we go with McGrath starting, then I think Jeppe Okkels may get the nod to guard the Dons' left flank, with Keskinen on the right, and Shayden Morris left on the bench and saved for the latter stages.
The early period of the game at Hampden is likely to be one of the best opportunities for Aberdeen to score a goal, particularly with Celtic committing players, especially their full-backs, further up the field, into the build-up.
Last year, it was a fine passing move in the cup semi-final between Aberdeen and Celtic which created Bojan Miovski's chance – and Aberdeen scoring first changed the tempo of the match.
At Parkhead, in the second Glasgow Premiership meeting of this season (again, a 5-1 Reds defeat), Oday Dabbagh, Okkels, and Kevin Nisbet all had good opportunities to put the Dons ahead, and at Pittodrie in the first match, Leighton Clarkson spurned a golden chance to level late on.
Sometimes it doesn't even get to the chance, as the final Aberdeen pass fails to find the right man.
Contrast this with the opening 2-2 draw between the teams at Celtic Park in the autumn, and in particular the quality from McGrath's pass and Ester Sokler's finish to pull the Dons back to 2-1.
Aberdeen will get some openings, but their key players will have to step up and deliver quality when it matters most.
Once we get into the rhythm of the game, Aberdeen have been able to negotiate the early stages fairly well versus Celtic.
But then it all seems to go awry around the 25-minute mark…
Let's take a look at when Aberdeen have conceded against Celtic:
Those goals in bold have come from one of two sources – corner kicks and counter-attacks.
Aberdeen's woes at set-pieces were again exposed in defeat at Dundee United on Saturday, as, for the third game in four, they conceded from a corner or free-kick into the box.
The team's strategy for defending dead-balls is rightly under the microscope, and the opposition are targeting specific zones and players:
Perhaps having Kristers Tobers and Mats Knoester man-mark Celtic's biggest aerial threats – presumably Cameron Carter-Vickers and Liam Scales – might be worth sacrificing Thelin's zonal system for on this one occasion.
Regarding counter-attacks, Aberdeen have been burned by Celtic's pace several times this season, most notably in the League Cup semi-final, when the Dons were ruthlessly torn apart twice before half-time.
The question is whether this Aberdeen side are capable of both playing to their manager's style AND not leaving this opportunity for Celtic on the break?
In Thelin's system, both full-backs are encouraged to attack when the ball goes forward.
This certainly helps the team keep possession in the attacking half and develop numbers-up situations.
But Celtic's pace on the break will be too much if they are given the chance to exploit space as we saw at Hampden in the League Cup and at Celtic Park in the 5-1 defeat.
Aside from maybe leaving the non-ball-sided defender home when attacking, quick counter-pressing and tactical fouls will be vital for stopping Celtic breakaways.
In this instance, we'd be looking to central midfielder Ante Palaversa to show positional discipline and awareness to stop attacks at-source:
From a data perspective, there was not too much difference between Aberdeen's lauded 2-2 (4.17 – 0.99) draw at Parkhead and their pilloried 6-0 mauling at Hampden (3.23 – 0.32). The xG (expected goals) scorelines are in brackets.
Celtic actually had 30 shots in the 2-2, but only 14 in the 6-0.
Suffice to say, and we know data does not account for all the elements of the game, but it is obvious luck could play a part in Saturday's Scottish Cup final.
Aberdeen's job is to ensure their luck counts, by restricting Celtic's shooting opportunities, being good at set-pieces (attacking and defensively), and taking advantage of rare mistakes in their rivals' build-up.
In 1970, a questionable penalty decision set the Dons on their way to cup glory.
In 1990, they would win in a remarkable penalty shoot-out.
On the other hand, in 2017, Kenny McLean was inches away from connecting with Jonny Hayes' cross – and would have won Derek McInnes' Aberdeen team the cup if he had.
If the game can be kept to fine margins, we have seen this season Aberdeen have players who can deliver some magic at a key moment.
But we'll need a perfect implementation of plan A to make any magic matter.
Mitov; Jensen, Tobers, Knoester, Shinnie; Clarkson, Palaversa; Keskinen, McGrath, Okkels; Nisbet.