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Globe and Mail
4 hours ago
- Globe and Mail
1 Stock Down 40% This Year to Buy and Hold
Key Points Novo Nordisk's shares have been trending downward due to clinical setbacks and underwhelming results. However, the company has some potential catalysts on the way that could jolt its stock price. Novo Nordisk looks attractive given its lineup and pipeline, especially at current levels. 10 stocks we like better than Novo Nordisk › Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) first earned U.S. approval for its now-famous weight management medicine Wegovy in June 2021. That marked the beginning of a strong run for the company on the stock market. However, the Denmark-based drugmaker has given up most of these gains over the past year; the stock is down by 40% since January alone. Despite its recent misfortunes, Novo Nordisk's shares could still deliver strong returns to patient investors. Here's why. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » NVO Total Return Level data by YCharts. The weight management opportunity Novo Nordisk primarily develops medicines for diabetes and, in recent years, weight management. Its stock has plunged over the past year because its financial results haven't been as impressive as the market had hoped. It also faced some clinical setbacks, while its biggest rival in its core markets, Eli Lilly, earned some important wins. However, there's more to the story. The market for anti-obesity medications could grow at an incredibly rapid rate. Some analysts estimate that it will be worth $150 billion by 2035, compared to $15 billion last year. Novo Nordisk still has one of the deepest pipelines in the industry. In fact, it's challenging to find a company other than Eli Lilly that has more promising products. Recently, Novo Nordisk expanded its pipeline through various licensing deals. Here's one more thing that recently broke its way: Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, did not perform nearly as well as expected in a phase 3 study. This opens the door for Novo Nordisk to catch up to its longtime rival. The company's oral version of Wegovy is currently awaiting approval from regulators in the U.S. The oral version led to an average weight reduction of 13.6% in a phase 3 clinical trial, slightly higher than the 12.4% that orforglipron recently posted in its late-stage study. While it's always hard to compare across clinical trials, the data at the very least suggests that oral Wegovy is comparable to orforglipron -- but only the former drug is closing in on approval. Novo Nordisk also has yet another promising anti-obesity candidate in phase 3 studies, amycretin, which the Denmark-based pharmaceutical giant is testing in both subcutaneous and oral formulations. Why is the race to develop an oral weight loss option so important? Pills are easier and cheaper to manufacture, store, and transport. So, compared to injectable weight loss therapies, oral versions would allow drugmakers to produce them more cost-effectively and to expand the reach of weight loss therapies. On top of that, some patients are strongly averse to needles. Because the current leading weight management drugs are administered subcutaneously, an oral option would likely take a decent share of the market. Novo Nordisk is likely to be first to market. And the company could follow up that win with another oral product in amycretin. The price is right Let's go back to Novo Nordisk's recent and disappointing financial results. In the first half of the year, revenue rose by 16% year over year to 154.9 billion Danish kroner ($24.2 billion), while net profit came in at 55.5 billion DKK ($8.7 billion). Perhaps that's not quite what the market expected to see, but these are still excellent results for a pharmaceutical giant -- most drugmakers of that size would be happy to grow their revenue at high-single-digit or low-double-digit rates. Meanwhile, the stock appears reasonably valued, trading at 13 times forward earnings, compared to the healthcare industry 's average of 16.2. What's the verdict? Novo Nordisk looks attractive at current levels, given the company's strong pipeline in weight management and a lineup that continues to deliver consistent profits. Despite recent setbacks, the stock is well-positioned to deliver excellent results over the long term. Should you invest $1,000 in Novo Nordisk right now? Before you buy stock in Novo Nordisk, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Novo Nordisk wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $668,155!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,106,071!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,070% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 184% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of August 13, 2025
Globe and Mail
2 days ago
- Globe and Mail
Can AECOM's $24.6B Backlog Weather Economic and Policy Shocks?
AECOM 's ACM growth prospects are gaining from the robust public infrastructure spending environment, with several federal and state initiatives across the United States backing the wave. Given the company's expertise across diversified service offerings, it is successfully managing to capitalize on these opportunities and boost its revenue visibility in the process. Moreover, ACM prioritizing sustainability and innovation is resonating with the clients' priorities and global trends, further catalyzing the growth trends. However, amid all the favorable market trends, the company faces challenges due to macroeconomic uncertainties and potential project delays, especially across government projects. What's Driving AECOM's Momentum? Global Public Spending Trends: AECOM has been witnessing robust market trends due to the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) in the United States, with public infrastructure demand reaching new heights. Recently, the company highlighted that since the launch, only about 36% of the IIJA funding has been spent across its target markets. This positioning reflects incremental long-term revenue visibility for it mainly across key market segments, including AI (with data centers taking the major share), water, transportation, aviation, coastal protection and electricity. These favorable trends are also being shared by a few key market players, including Jacobs Solutions Inc. J, EMCOR Group, Inc. EME and Quanta Services, Inc. PWR, offering substantial competition to AECOM, especially across data center projects. Similar public spending trends are now visible in AECOM's international markets, including the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Asia. The recent 10-year infrastructure strategy announcement by the U.K. government highlights investments of GBP 725 billion across key sectors, including transportation, water and energy, reflecting heightened opportunities for the company in the upcoming term. In the Middle East, AECOM successfully managed to align its opportunities with the shifts in investment priorities for infrastructure development for the World Expo and World Cup in Saudi Arabia. With Canada's aim of prioritizing public infrastructure projects 60% quicker, the company is positioned to capitalize on these tailwinds in the near and long term. Favorable Long-Term Growth Positioning: Thanks to the robust initiation of government strategies regarding the enhancement of public infrastructure, alongside AECOM's in-house capabilities, the company's backlog is growing, in turn, increasing revenue visibility in the upcoming period. As of the third quarter of fiscal 2025, the total backlog was $24.59 billion, up 5% from $23.36 billion reported in the prior-year period. Moreover, during the first nine months of fiscal 2025, NSR grew 6% on an adjusted basis to $1.938 billion, with net service revenues (defined as revenues excluding subcontractor and other direct costs) in the Americas and International segments growing year over year by 8% and 3%, respectively. The company's investment strategies to enhance leadership, technical development and AI capabilities offer its substantial competitive advantage over its market peers, underpinning its ability to consistently secure large and complex projects, as indicated in its top rankings by Engineering News-Record across major markets. For the long term, AECOM aims to achieve 5-8% organic NSR growth annually, with at least 20-30 basis points of adjusted operating margin and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. Focus on Sustainability & Innovation: AECOM's investments in digital water systems, predictive analytics and energy-efficient infrastructure position it as a forward-thinking leader. The adoption of digital water solutions is addressing a $70 billion market opportunity through 2030, particularly in regions like the United States and the United Kingdom, where water utilities are undergoing modernization. Thanks to its innovative approach regarding sustainability, the company was recently selected by a major U.S. water client for a significant metering project, indicating the growing demand for accurate water management. Through a combination of strong market trends, strategic focus and operational excellence, AECOM is poised to capitalize on long-term growth drivers while maintaining its leadership in the global infrastructure space. Risks to AECOM's Growth Lingering Macro Risks: AECOM operates across multiple geographies. Factors like changes in the United States' and other national governments' trade policies, regulatory practices, tariffs and taxes, further devaluations and other conversion restrictions and logistical & communication challenges might adversely impact the company's financials. The ongoing uncertainties surrounding the new tariff regime are hammering the nail, and are expected to dig in deeper in the upcoming period in the form of increased costs and expenses. In fiscal 2024, 27% of total revenues were attributable to the services provided to non-U.S. clients. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, political and economic instability in the Middle East and Southeast Asia and currency fluctuations are posing as major threats to the company in the current environment. Project Delays: The company derives a considerable share of its revenues from government projects, exposing it more to the adverse impacts of alterations in the government rules and regulations. Moreover, the company's inability to renew government contracts during regulated procurement processes can materially impact operations and reduce profits & revenues going forward. During fiscal 2024, 2023 and 2022, approximately 46%, 43% and 41%, respectively, of its total revenues were derived from contracts with government entities. Given the long-term nature of most government contracts, any budgetary changes during the tenure are expected to negatively affect AECOM's business. Details on the Other Market Players Jacobs: This Texas-based provider of professional, technical and construction services is witnessing steady progress across key sectors, including Life Sciences, Data Center, Energy & Power, Water and Transportation. Jacobs has been witnessing strong growth in Water and Environmental services, driven by government-backed infrastructure projects, climate resilience initiatives and investments in aging infrastructure. At the fiscal third-quarter 2025 end, the backlog of $22.7 billion was up 14.3% on a year-over-year basis, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2x. EMCOR: This Connecticut-based mechanical and electrical construction, industrial and energy infrastructure, and building services provider is massively gaining from the growing infrastructural demand across the network and communications sector, mainly in data centers. As of June 30, 2025, Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) were $11.91 billion, indicating 22% organic growth and 32.4% growth after including Miller Electric's acquisition contribution, year over year. The diversity in EMCOR's RPOs stretches across various market segments, with the networking and communications sector contributing about $3.8 billion (as of June 30), and the healthcare sector contributing $1.4 billion. Quanta: This Texas-based infrastructure services provider's strength lies in its ability to deliver complex, large-scale projects such as power grid modernization, solar and wind farm buildouts and next-gen telecom networks. Moreover, the recent acquisition of Dynamic Systems (DSI), LLC, strengthens Quanta's critical path capabilities and front-end services for the growing technology, manufacturing and other load center markets. As of June 30, 2025, the company had a total backlog of $35.84 billion, with a 12-month backlog of $20.05 billion. See our %%CTA_TEXT%% report – free today! 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR): Free Stock Analysis Report AECOM (ACM): Free Stock Analysis Report EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME): Free Stock Analysis Report Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J): Free Stock Analysis Report
Globe and Mail
2 days ago
- Globe and Mail
Why Novo Nordisk Flew Almost 3% Higher on Friday
Key Points The company's leading product looked more attractive following price hikes by a competitor. Eli Lilly's Zepbound will become more expensive in the U.K. and likely throughout Europe subsequently. 10 stocks we like better than Novo Nordisk › An archrival's pricing move was seen as beneficial for Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) on Friday. As investors disseminated news of a dramatic increase in the cost of a product competing with the company's star drug, Wegovy, they pushed the Danish pharmaceutical company's share price up. It closed the day almost 3% higher during a session when the S&P 500 index ended up slumping by 0.3%. A rival's hikes The previous day, U.S. healthcare giant Eli Lilly announced that it was raising the prices of Zepbound -- a GLP-1 obesity drug that directly competes with Wegovy -- in the U.K. In doing so, the company indicated that it will follow suit in other European markets. The move follows a Trump administration push to reduce drug prices in America (or, at least, effectively level them across the world). In late July, the president sent letters to the CEOs of top U.S. drug companies, stating that they had until Sept. 29 to reduce the costs of certain medications. Failure to do so, the president wrote somewhat vaguely, would see the federal government "deploy every tool in our arsenal to protect American families." Although Novo Nordisk also received one of these letters -- there were 17 in all -- the company hasn't given any concrete indication that it intends to make adjustments similar to Eli Lilly's. Customer rebellion brewing? For the moment, then, Novo Nordisk enjoys a bit of an advantage, as there is inevitably customer backlash (and often defection to rival products) when a company hikes prices. We've yet to see how Trump's initiative will fully play out, however. So, personally, I don't think any investor should base their Novo Nordisk stance on the Eli Lilly development. Should you invest $1,000 in Novo Nordisk right now? Before you buy stock in Novo Nordisk, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Novo Nordisk wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $663,630!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,115,695!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,071% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of August 13, 2025
