5 Things To Watch As the Trump-Musk Meltdown Proceeds

Time​ Magazine

a day ago

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Like so many pieces of President Donald Trump's self-created reality, the key he handed to fellow billionaire and government hater Elon Musk was oversized and appeared to be coated with gold coloration. That Potemkin moment was merely one week ago today.
Indeed, last Friday, Trump held the unusual send-off party for an adviser tasked with helping him destroy the spine of the federal workforce and a patron to his rise to power. Fast forward a week, and Trump has all but declared war on his one-time ally, lobbing threats to cancel federal contracts for everything from clean-energy cars, shuttles into the heavens, and access to satellite orbits. In turn, Musk kept pushing Republicans on the Hill to reject Trump's ambitious domestic policy agenda while throwing open the doors to conspiracy theories.
The back-and-forth brinksmanship captivated Washington as the week headed toward its end. Both parties seemed to understand their ownership of the news cycle, and it's entirely possible that most of this spat was as scripted as a professional-wrestling beef. 'One thing's for sure,' Musk posted on X, 'it ain't boring!'
That doesn't make it any less reckless.
Here are five things to watch as this story unfolds.
Does Trump Turn the Page?
As catty as this feud has been, it is ultimately a huge distraction from Trump's agenda. The more time spent on a personality clash between this pair of mercurial iconoclasts, the less time is being dedicated to getting Trump's pending domestic agenda across the finish line. This is, to be clear, a fight that could leave both men empty handed.
Trump is heading to his country club in New Jersey for the weekend, away from the White House and the churn of that campus. That may give Trump time to cool to a simmer—or to boil over if he's left alone with his DVR, social media feeds, and cell phone that gives him a constant hum of agitation.
Establishment Republicans fear the window for a once-an-administration legislative reach is closing fast. The White House set a Memorial Day deadline for House passage and just barely got there. Administration officials are now looking at a July 4 target for the Senate following suit. The sooner Trump can quiet his frustrations, the better the odds of snagging the brass ring.
Does Musk Escalate?
Once Musk suggested—without evidence—that Trump is somehow implicated in the sex-trafficking criminality tied to the late billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, there really was no telling where this goes next.
The mega-rich like Musk don't exactly have a huge degree of self-awareness or self-control. Musk knows he is already under Trump's skin, and any plays to exploit Trump's insecurities don't exactly take terrible imagination. That's why this stands to go further sideways in a big way.
Musk is not exactly known for keeping the savviest of political minds at his table. Unlike other deep-pocketed patrons, Musk does not have an army of consultants and so-called donor-advisers at the ready. But he does have the ear of some in Trump's inner circle, especially Donald Trump Jr. and Vice President J.D. Vance. If the White House is looking for an off-ramp, it might avail itself of those two lesser-appreciated insiders.
Is the 'Big Beautiful Bill' In Limbo?
At its core, this spat began over Musk's criticism of the deficit spending that would accompany the Trump-branded 'One Big Beautiful Bill' that preserves and expands Trump's first-term tax cuts, slices into clean-energy initiatives carried in Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, and boosts spending on border and immigration policing. It's poised to add trillions to the national debt. Musk, a newly converted deficit hawk, has said he sees the red ink as an existential threat.
House Republicans powered their first leg of this marathon across the line with the barest of majorities and zero margin for error. Democrats were unified in their opposition, and remain even more so now that they've had time to unpack everything in a 1,000-plus-page bill that also would limit how much courts could rein in Trump and neuter the ability of states to regulate artificial intelligence.
In the Senate, things were already iffy. The White House plans to use a procedural trick that allows Senate Republicans to sidestep the typical filibuster rules and pass the legislation with a simple majority. But that's going to require keeping the parameters narrow and keeping the crayons inside the line, especially when it comes to long-term spending obligations. But Senate Republicans also plan to edit the bill text. Add in there Musk's threats of consequences for rubber stamping the House version and it's even murkier where this one goes.
Does MAGA World Have To Pick Sides?
As soon as Musk and Trump began bashing one another in earnest on Thursday, the GOP base immediately started agitating in three big directions.
In one corner were those bucking up Trump's flank. Former White House strategist Steve Bannon went so far as to suggest the feds look at Musk's immigration status, hinting that the South African-born Musk could find himself on the losing side of a deportation skirmish.
In another stood Musk's defenders, who said maybe the world's richest man was onto something when it came to the criticism that sparked the fallout: that the tax cuts in the bill would balloon the nation's already terrifying pile of IOUs. Musk's following remains huge, but he does not have a natural constituency the way other political leaders enjoy. That is why he is such a potent force in electoral efforts, especially among voters who feel no one in elected office has their interests at heart. Add in there the libertarian-minded Silicon Valley set, and it's an unusual coalition that few others could muster.
Finally—and this is where so many Republican lawmakers are falling in line—is the corner where there's a last-ditch hope that Trump and Musk can move on, forgetting the pettiness of the last week. The Kiss-and-Make-Up Caucus, as it's been jokingly called among Hill aides, is one with long odds, to be sure. But it's a detente that might allow both billionaires to save face while sparing lawmakers from picking sides, a fraught choice given the passions running high with low-information voters.
Johnson, speaking with reporters on Friday, tried to navigate a way out of this mess without any new tinder. 'It's not personal,' Johnson told CNBC on Friday. 'I don't tell my friend Elon how … to build rockets. I wish he wouldn't argue with me on how to craft legislation and pass it.'
Do Hill Democrats Finally Have an Opening?
Since Musk started busting-up the federal government in January, Hill Democrats have been in a listless tilt in search of a strategy. A few fiery speeches have not stopped Musk's march through the federal workforce. Some of the actions have been reversed, either through quiet climbdown or court-ordered pivots. But by and large, Democrats have been left on the sidelines and powerless to query Musk and his deputies, let alone stop them.
That may shift now. Musk is clearly no longer a loyalist to Trump, who could still avail himself of claims of executive privilege and block Musk's cooperation with the Hill Democrats. But with Musk openly encouraging Trump's impeachment—which would be a record third time!—there are chances that this escalates in truly history-making ways.
Hill Republicans have so far stuck together to protect Trump and, by extension, Musk from any real scrutiny. While much of Trump's Cabinet has bristled over Musk's over-reach into their fiefdoms, they have still dutifully shielded Musk and Co from any real oversight. Through some clever administrative trickery, the White House ensured that Musk was never technically a real federal employee, and even claimed he was never in charge of the office he was actually running. Efforts to haul him in for oversight hit a brick wall. Hill Republicans kept their frustrations buttoned-up and limited to closed-door venting.
Now that Musk is untethered, the game may have changed. If the White House wanted to, it could go so far as to encourage Congress to make use of its subpoena power. While that's an unlikely outcome, Musk can no longer be assured of the safe bunker in Washington he had when this second Trump term began.