Road to the 2026 World Cup: how is it shaping up with 48 places at stake?

The Guardian

19-03-2025

The road to the 2026 World Cup, an unprecedented 48-team event, is under way. The final tournament, hosted by Canada, Mexico and the United States, expands to 104 matches across 16 cities. Here is all you need to know about the diverse qualification paths for each confederation, key matches and emerging contenders.
Number of spots Eight plus possibly one via intercontinental playoff, up from six in 2022
Format Qualification features five rounds. Initially, 20 lower-ranked teams competed, followed by 36 teams in group stages. The top two from 18 teams in round three will qualify directly. Subsequent rounds determine further qualifiers via group play and playoffs, culminating in inter-confederation playoffs.
Latest With the third round under way Japan is on the cusp of becoming the first nation (excluding hosts) to qualify for the World Cup in what will shape up to be a two-year qualification process for AFC teams. A victory against Bahrain in Saitama on Thursday will secure Hajime Moriyasu's side's spot as they currently hold a 10-point lead over third-placed Indonesia in Group C with four games to go. The race for the other qualification spots in Group C is tight, with Australia in second, just one point ahead of Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and China. In Group A, Qatar's Almoez Ali is the top scorer across all confederations with 12 goals and the 2022 hosts need a win against North Korea to keep their automatic qualification hopes alive. Group leaders Iran will be on the cusp of qualification if they secure a victory against the United Arab Emirates in Tehran. South Korea, leading Group B and with the most World Cup appearances by an Asian nation (11), can qualify with a win against Oman and at least a point against Jordan, both matches being played at home.
Key fixtures during this international break:
Iran v UAE, 20 March
South Korea v Jordan, 25 March
Number of spots Nine plus possibly one via intercontinental playoff, up from five in 2022
Format Qualification features two rounds. First, 53 teams are competing in nine groups, with each group winner qualifying. The four best runners-up will battle in playoffs: two semi-finals and a final. The playoff winner advances to the inter-confederation playoffs.
Latest In the first round, Egypt, with a four-point lead in Group A and the healthiest cushion in Caf qualifying, are unbeaten and aim to solidify their qualification bid with matches against Ethiopia and Sierra Leone with Caf's joint-top scorers Mohamed Salah and Mahmoud Trézéguet. Under Pape Thiaw Senegal will seek to close the two-point gap on surprise Group B leaders Sudan in their match on Saturday. Nigeria, winless in Group C, and desperate to qualify after just missing out in 2022, face must-win games against Rwanda and Zimbabwe under their new coach Éric Chelle, the first non-Nigerian African to manage the Super Eagles. Morocco are Africa's highest-ranked team after their fantastic showing in Qatar and with a perfect record in Group E should face an easy route to qualification. The Afcon champions Ivory Coast only have a one-point lead in Group F.
Key fixtures during this international break:
Niger v Morocco, 21 March
Sudan v Senegal, 22 March
Number of spots 3+3 (hosts) plus possibly two via an intercontinental playoff, up from four in 2022
Format Qualification features three rounds – the first a playoff for the four lowest-ranked teams. Then, 30 teams compete in six groups, with the top two advancing. The final 12 teams are divided into three groups; group winners qualify directly, and the best two runners-up enter inter-confederation playoffs.
Latest With three automatic qualification spots already taken by the host nations, the competition for the remaining three direct places and two playoff opportunities is particularly tight. Honduras and Costa Rica are performing as anticipated, topping Group A and B respectively in the second round. Still, strong starts for Curaçao, who top Group C on goal difference thanks to Concacaf's top goalscorer Rangelo Janga suggest that the path to the World Cup may hold some unexpected twists.
No fixtures during this international break, next games in June
Number of spots: six plus possibly one via intercontinental playoff, up from four in 2022
Format Conmebol's qualification is a single, gruelling league format. All ten nations play each other home and away. The top six teams qualify directly for the World Cup while the seventh-placed team enters the inter-confederation playoffs.
Latest With six matchdays remaining, Argentina, leading the table by five points, faces crucial encounters against Uruguay and Brazil. Lionel Messi will miss these matches due to injury but the defending champions only need seven points from their remaining 18 to secure qualification. Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay, currently second, will clash with his native Argentina, aiming to maintain their recent scoring form after a goal drought late last year saw them go four matches without finding the back of the net. Brazil, sitting fifth and also without Neymar, have been inconsistent but will hope the momentum from Bruno Guimarães and Joelinton's recent historic trophy win with Newcastle will provide a boost. While Chile remain in contention for seventh place, Bolivia and Venezuela are the primary contenders for the playoff spot, each seeking a historic World Cup appearance: Bolivia's first since 1994 and Venezuela's inaugural qualification.
Key fixtures during this international break:
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Uruguay v Argentina, 20 March
Argentina v Brazil, 25 March
Number of spots One plus possibly one via intercontinental playoff, up from zero in 2022
Format In the first of three rounds, four lowest-ranked teams compete in a knockout tournament. The winner joins seven top teams in two groups, playing once each. The top two from each group advance to a final knockout round where the winner qualifies directly, and the runner-up enters inter-confederation playoffs.
Latest Oceania's historic guaranteed World Cup spot will be decided in crucial matches with New Caledonia facing Tahiti, and New Zealand playing Fiji in the semi-finals. New Zealand, favoured due to their experience and ranking, topped Group B with a perfect record, while New Caledonia led Group A with two wins and a draw. Fiji will be without their captain and all-time top scorer, Roy Krishna, who misses out after succumbing to injury with Indian club side, Odisha. Rob Sherman's side, made up of amateur players who work as police officers and construction workers, face the daunting task of keeping out the in-form Chris Wood for New Zealand.
Key fixtures during this international break:
New Caledonia v Tahiti, semi-final, 21 March
New Zealand v Fiji, semi-final, 21 March
Final, 24 March
Number of spots 16, up from 13 in 2022
Format Fifty-four teams are divided into 12 groups for the first round, playing home and away. Group winners qualify directly while the second round features 12 runners-up and four top Nations League group winners who missed direct qualification. These 16 teams are split into four playoff paths, each with semi-finals and a final, with the four final winners securing qualification.
Latest The first round group stage begins during this international break, with Thomas Tuchel getting his first taste as England head coach in Group K, facing Albania and Latvia in the initial fixtures. The group stage, which continues up until November 2025, sees staggered starts, with five-team groups, like England's, beginning this month while four-team groups, involving Nations League quarter-finalists, start later in September. Wales face Kazakhstan, Scotland play Belarus and Greece in their early matches, while Northern Ireland await their start. Elsewhere, Liechtenstein, one of the smallest countries aiming for a spot at the 2026 World Cup, will hope for an upset in a tough group with Belgium, Wales, North Macedonia and Kazakhstan.
Key fixtures during this international break:
England v Albania, 21 March
Wales v Kazakhstan, 22 March
Poland v Malta, 24 March
The final two spots will be decided through an inter-confederation playoff tournament which will take place in one of the host countries in March 2026. This six-team single-elimination event will include one team each from the AFC, Caf, Conmebol and OFC, along with two teams from Concacaf (the host confederation receives an additional entry). The format of the playoffs sees the six teams ranked based on their Fifa world ranking. The four lowest-ranked teams will compete in two semi-final matches, while the two highest-ranked teams will receive a bye directly to the finals. Winners of the two semi-finals will then face the two seeded teams in the finals, and the winners of these two final matches will secure the last two places at the 2026 World Cup.