The War Cabinet warns Australia faces a 'different China' in future crisis as Beijing readies itself for sustained conflict

Sky News AU

7 days ago

The threat of a war involving Australia is far greater and more imminent than the public is being told according to defence experts, as the nation faces a "different China".
On Sky News special event The War Cabinet, a symposium of former defence ministers, military personnel and leading academics in the fields of modern warfare have claimed Australia will unlikely be able to sit out of a future conflict.
Former defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon, who served in the first Rudd government, said Australia's strategic outlook in the Indo-Pacific region was 'deteriorating rather markedly' and that the warning time of an attack is much shorter.
In order to meet this threat head on, Mr Fitzgibbon suggested 'spending smarter' and 'far more efficiently," as well as keeping the United States engaged in the region.
Australia's longest serving foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer, who served in the Howard government, agreed and said the only way to uphold liberal democracy against the threats of China, North Korea, Iran and Russia was to operate in a 'strong global alliance led by the United States'.
'If this alliance holds, if it's properly cemented, if it is well-led by the Americans ... And if we, as members of the alliance, are serious about making a practical contribution to defence through our spending and our equipment, then we will maintain a balance of power in the world,' he said.
'I think the government here in Australia has made a major mistake by playing, if you like, politics with this issue of the dangers of the region and losing the balance of power because they don't want to be seen to be too close to President Trump,' he said.
Former Home Affairs Department Secretary Mike Pezzullo said China's circumnavigation of Australia in February was an attempt to 'project power', 'coerce us' and to rehearse military strikes.
Mr Pezzullo said the threat of Beijing had changed since the 'technocratic China' times when Bob Hawke, Paul Keating or John Howard were in power - when it was focussed on prosperity and eradicating poverty.
'We've got a different China,' he said, insisting the imminent threat of war.
'We should take 2027 seriously because that's what (President) Xi has said is a target date for him.'
Mr Pezzullo has warned the chances of a conflict in the Indo-Pacific by 2027 was a '10 to 20 per cent' risk.
Defence aviation expert Dr Oleksandra Molloy said one of the primary strategic challenges is that China was working alongside other hostile powers such as Russia, North Korea and Iran.
'This emerging axis is quite concerning,' she said.
CyberCX executive director Katherine Manstead said while Australia was not at war, 'we're certainly not at peace' and the Australian public had a 'huge stake' in defending its sovereignty.
Ms Manstead said there was a concerted effort from China to undermine and attack Australia coercively.
'Chinese military cyber spies are actively probing our civilian critical infrastructure, looking for weaknesses and looking for ways to get in and hide and bide, potentially for high-impact sabotage, if relations deteriorate in the region,' she said.
Defence analyst and former naval officer Jennifer Parker agreed US was an important partner, but that Australia should also 'develop a degree of autonomy'.
'I think that hard and rapid investment in capability that can do that, you know, we talk a lot about deterrence, we also just need to be able to respond,' she said.
Ms Parker said Australia did not have an integrated air and missile defence which could last for 'more than a couple of days' and insisted Canberra should listen to the US about upping defence spending.
Retired Australian Army major general Mick Ryan said there would be no change unless the mindset and culture of 'zero risk' - which "pervades pretty much every bit of Australian society" - changes.
'The Department of Defence must take more risk in procurement, in innovation, to cut the amount of time it takes to develop capability, to fail more in learning about new ways of thinking and fighting and supporting ourselves, and nurture a spirit of innovation that connects military, industry, and society in this country,' he said.
Strategic Analysis Australia director Peter Jennings said Australia needed a Prime Minister who was capable of 'picking up the phone to the President' and to look at forging a new security treaty with Japan.
'This is not a story about the 2030s. Our concern needs to be in the second half of this decade. Essentially, whilst Xi Jinping is still the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party,' he said.
'It is utterly false for our government to say that somehow they have stabilised the relationship with China. Things may have improved on the trade front, but that is at the expense of ignoring the strategic developments which all of our colleagues around the table have spoken about, which is China is positioning for war."
Mr Jennings said a Trump White House was "less important" than people thought, as the enduring interest of the United States was to hold onto its dominance as a global superpower.
"The test for the United States is not so much about the defence of Taiwan. It's about the defence of their own position as a global superpower. And are they prepared to see that eroded by China being victorious in this part of the world?" he said.
Strategic Forum CEO Dr Ross Babbage said the overall strategic environment had gotten 'a lot worse', partly due to China's staggering investment into its defence related capabilities.
Dr Babbage said China was not just investing in military capability, but was 'changing the structure of their economy' to be able to conduct a major military operation and 'sustain it indefinitely'.
'They're also preparing their community, psychologically, for tough times that may come,' he said.
'So we're looking at the possibility of a serious crisis.'
Uhlmann closed the cabinet with an admonition: Wise governments prepare for the worst.